Safety of nuclear assets
By Anwar Syed
COMMENTATORS in Pakistan refer to its nuclear assets much too often and needlessly. They speak of Pakistan and India as “nuclear armed” neighbours or rivals.
This they do in spite of the fact that the entire world is aware not only of the hostility between these two countries but also that both of them possess nuclear weapons and a nuclear war in this region is not beyond the realm of possibility. Pakistani officials have felt it necessary to assure visiting foreign dignitaries that these weapons are in safe hands beyond the reach of militants and terrorists.
It may be said that these assurances are needless, for no major power has called upon Pakistan to prove to the world’s satisfaction that its nuclear assets are secure. But it is a fact also that governments and think tanks in North America and Europe have periodically expressed concern that these assets might not be secure.
Some Pakistani observers are inclined to interpret this concern as an indication of the western powers’ unwillingness to countenance a Muslim nation’s possession of nuclear weapons, emanating from their generalised disapproval of Islam both as a doctrine and a guide to conduct. This interpretation may have an element of truth, but it cannot be the main explanation of the western powers’ reservations in this regard.
The apprehension that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons might fall into the wrong hands is based on the hard fact that the ‘wrong hands’ — fanatics, militants, terrorists — do exist in this country in substantial numbers and they are doing their work. It may not be likely that they will come to power through the electoral process or otherwise seize the government. But sceptics worry also that an anti-western coalition of forces — not only the Taliban and the likes of them but also those who are sympathetic to their ideological persuasion and mission — may come to power and feel free to use the weapons under its control to the western powers’ detriment.
According to some reports, there have been indications on the part of an Islamic party that the Islamic parties in the country could be considered trustworthy guardians of its nuclear weapons if they came to power. These assurances may not be entirely credible in view of the fact that these parties have never condemned the death and destruction that the Taliban and other Islamic militants have been visiting upon this country.In my reckoning, however, it is most improbable that any radical group, Islamic or other, will take control of the government in Pakistan in the foreseeable future. Western worries concerning the security of its nuclear assets are therefore misplaced. They are based upon hypothetical calculations of that which is conceivable, not that which is probable.
It may be true that officials concerned in the American administration prepare contingency plans for immobilising, or taking control of, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in the event that anti-western radicals do take power in that country. That does not mean that the occasion for these plans to be implemented will ever arise. It should be noted also that the disposition of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and their security are related to their location and the identity of those who know it.
Pakistan embarked upon a nuclear programme around 1973 and openly became a maker of nuclear weapons in May 1998. It may already have built a small number of warheads by this time. Their production is believed to have been an ongoing operation since then.The places where the US and Russia have stored their nuclear weapons are known and their security is ensured by the erection of insurmountable physical barriers and by controlling access to the sites. In Pakistan these weapons are made secure by the maintenance of strict secrecy regarding their locations. It was said at the time that President Ghulam Ishaq Khan personally supervised and directed the country’s nuclear programme. But one cannot say how much of the specifics of production and storage of weapons he knew.
Gen Pervez Musharraf established a National Command and Control Authority, consisting of some 10 members with the president and the prime minister as chairman and vice-chairman respectively, to supervise Pakistan’s nuclear programme in its various facets. But it is unlikely that all of its members know where the weapons are stored.
It is to be noted that the bombs are not stacked anywhere as completed units, their components are assembled and placed in their casings, with coded switches installed, ready to be mounted on delivery vehicles and fired. The production of a bomb consists of several different processes, each of them housed in a location (usually an army unit) known only to those responsible for carrying it out.
Those who manage one of these processes do not know where and how the other processes are going on. The components produced at these various stations are transported to a central place where they are put together. Each bomb has to have a fissile core and non-nuclear materials. The fissile core is stored in a vault by itself, apart from the other materials. This core is to be placed at the bottom of the heap in the bomb, and a coded off-on switch is installed. The weapon is then ready to be placed on a delivery vehicle and sent away. No one other than the army chief and a couple of others knows the changing location of either the components or the finished product.
It follows that a nuclear weapon is not something that a thief can put in his pocket and walk away with, or even load it on a truck and drive off. The weapons cannot really go into the wrong hands unless their custodians, the army chief and some of his top deputies, are willing to let this happen, I cannot think of any reason why the head of the Pakistan Army and his associates would be willing to transfer nuclear weapons to any outsiders. The greater likelihood is that they would want to be the ones who decide when, where and against whom these weapons are to be deployed. In the making of these choices even the president and the prime minister may have to take the back seat.
The writer, professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, is a visiting professor at the Lahore School of Economics.
anwars@lahoreschool.edu.pk


War on plastic bags
By Randeep Ramesh
THE global battle against plastic took a draconian turn on Friday when officials in Delhi announced that the penalty for carrying a polythene shopping bag would be five years in prison.
Officials in India’s capital have decided that the only way to stem the rising tide of rubbish is to completely outlaw the plastic shopping bag. According to the official note, the “use, storage and sale” of plastic bags of any kind or thickness will be banned.
The new guideline means that customers, shopkeepers, hoteliers and hospital staff face a 100,000 rupee fine and possible jail time for using non-biodegradable bags. Delhi has been steadily filling up with plastic bags in recent years as the economy has boomed and western-style shopping malls have sprung up in the city.
There are no reliable figures on bag use, but environmentalists say more than 10 million are used in the capital every day. To begin with the ban will be lightly enforced, giving people time to switch to jute, cotton, recycled-paper and compostable bags.
Officials said that it would be up to the court to decide on how harsh a sentence an offender might face. “Delhi has a population of 16 million which means we cannot enforce [the new law] overnight,” said JK Dadoo, Delhi’s top environment official.
“But we want people to understand that they will not get away with [using plastic bags]. If they choose to defy the law repeatedly then the court has the measures necessary to fit.”
Civil servants said that punitive measures were needed after a law prohibiting all but the thinnest plastic bags — with sides no thicker than 0.04mm — was ignored. Environmentalists said these bags were too expensive as they were not made in India, and called for an injunction against all polythene.
Green groups welcomed the tough new measures . Shop-owners had long complained that no viable alternatives exist in India for plastic bags. However the authorities appeared to have been swayed by green groups, who pointed out used plastic bags were clogging drains, creating breeding grounds for malaria and dengue fever.
There is ample evidence that prohibition can work: poor countries such as Rwanda, Bhutan, Bangladesh all have bans.
The first targets in Delhi will be the industrial units that manufacture the plastic bags in the capital, which officials say will be closed down.
Bangladesh was the first country to ban plastic bags in 2002 amid worries that they were blocking drains during the monsoon. Taiwan, Australia, Rwanda and Singapore have since moved to ban, discourage or promote reuse of plastic bags, hundreds of billions of which are handed out free each year.
Towns and cities in India, the US and UK have followed. Denmark and Ireland have both experimented with taxing plastic bags. Dublin said the tax, imposed in 2002, had reduced usage by more than 95 per cent.
— The Guardian, London


