Betwixt cup and lip

ON the day the executive board of the IMF approved the $7.6bn bailout, Juan Carlos Di Tata, IMF mission chief to Pakistan, reminded Pakistanis of the size of our problems: $13.4bn gross external financing is needed in the current financial year. The IMF will chip in with $4.7bn to fill that gap and the rest will largely be met by foreign direct investment and aid from other IFIs, such as the ADB and the World Bank, and foreign governments. The good news is that the IMF’s projections of Pakistan’s needs were made at a time when international commodity prices were high; with prices sliding, the need for external financing will be lower. Pakistan should be able to meet all its financial obligations during the current financial year and can focus on setting its economic house in order.

However, as emphasised almost daily in these pages, there is a difference between having a plan and implementing it. Some aspects of the IMF-enforced programme, such as interest rate hikes, have been criticised as too severe and wrong for the Pakistan economy. While we agree with this criticism, the reality is that after knocking on every door Pakistan was left with no option but to go to the IMF, which inevitably forced some unpalatable choices. However, worries also remain within the parameters of the programme agreed to. The Government of Pakistan has committed to zero net borrowing from the State Bank after Oct 15, by which time over Rs250bn had already been borrowed since the start of the financial year. Abiding by this condition will require strict fiscal discipline by the government. While possible, especially with the requisite political will, the question is what will happen if Pakistan does not fulfil the requirement? Will the later tranches of the IMF bailout be withheld? And if so, what will happen to the funding Pakistan is hoping to receive from foreign governments and other IFIs which have made it clear their support is conditional on IMF approval? Pakistan is clearly not out of the woods yet and any complacency in Islamabad in the months ahead could plunge the country into a new crisis.

There is also the issue of reducing Pakistan’s reliance on external financing itself. One way to achieve this would be to increase Pakistan’s exports. While there are structural and international trade constraints that require patience to overcome, the situation in the local rice sector is illustrative of unnecessary hiccups. At the moment no one involved in the rice business appears happy; not the growers, the millers, the exporters, the policymakers or the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Supplies Corporation (Passco) — and certainly not local consumers. This at a time when Pakistan is expecting a bumper rice crop and sizeable exports. The government needs to step in to adequately address everyone’s concerns, not add to the confusion.

The inexplicable silence

PERHAPS no office in the land is immune from scandal. But self-respecting institutions that take pride in the principles they have set themselves to follow do take measures to rectify the damage that may have been inflicted on any department of the state as a consequence of such indignity. The silence (at least until the time of writing) of Chief Justice Hameed Dogar on the alleged manipulation of grades by the Federal Board of Intermediate and Secondary Education that enabled his daughter to gain admission, previously denied, to a medical college is then baffling. True, following a piece of in-depth investigative journalism in The News that brought the issue to light, the Federal Directorate General of Education has ordered an inquiry into the matter. But unless there is some explanation from judicial quarters, misgivings will increase and there will be no end to feelings that this is yet another case of nepotism, which, unfortunately, is a common feature of the Pakistani culture. Silence on such matters may be a part of judicial convention. But when allegations are as serious as this and involve the judges themselves then there must be a break from tradition.

This is, of course, no ordinary case, and the fact that it is linked to one of the highest offices of the land — to the chief of the Supreme Court of Pakistan in fact — places in jeopardy all trust in an institution that stands for justice and fair play. For if rules have indeed been ignored and grades manipulated then it is clearly a case of preferential treatment that has ignored the comparative merits of other students. What kind of justice can be expected from such an institution? The courts decide on matters of life and death and if the state has given certain individuals the right to pronounce a verdict in such cases then it follows that those dispensing justice be men of sterling character and above any stratagems that serve their own interests.

Meanwhile, the media which has drawn flak of late for bias and sensationalism has shown itself to be quite capable of coming up with a piece of reporting which, with all the evidence in hand, appears to be objective and hard-hitting. Such an exposé should encourage our large number of channels and newspapers to come up with solid investigations that put in the dock those departments and institutions that yield to influence rather than honour merit. This is essential to strengthen the media’s role as a watchdog over governance.

Mental health ordinance

IN the brouhaha on politics and economics that gives spice to media reports today, events that have a bearing on human life often miss the headlines. One such development that appears to be pretty mundane but could change the lives of a number of people was a recent judgment of the Sindh High Court. Taking up a petition filed by the Pakistan Association of Mental Health, the court directed the federal and provincial governments to constitute within two months (that is by Dec 22) the Federal Mental Health Authority (MHA) and the Board of Visitors as provided by the Mental Health Ordinance 2001 (MHO). Given the tardiness that marks governance processes in Pakistan, it is not really surprising that these bodies that were to make the MHO implementable have still not been set up.

The MHO that was promulgated seven years ago after relentless campaigning by health professionals and human rights activists was supposed to ameliorate the conditions of the mentally ill who have traditionally been abused and not received the sympathy they deserve in view of their illness. Thanks to efforts of psychiatrists public awareness has been created to a certain extent and the stigma attached to mental disorders has been reduced somewhat. But without the institutional framework the MHO has not proved to be effective. Thus the MHA is to regulate all matters pertaining to mental health such as establishing new standards for mental health care, prescribing procedures for mental health services and ensuring the implementation of the ordinance. The Board of Visitors was to be set up to periodically inspect psychiatric facilities to act as a monitoring mechanism. Unfortunately these bodies have not been set up so far. As a result the MHO virtually remains a dead letter. It is up to the government to constitute the MHA and the Board but as the slow functioning and indifference of the administration go it has failed to act on this count. One hopes that the Sindh High Court’s order will spur the health ministry in Islamabad and the health departments in the provinces to take the necessary action.

A winter of discontent

WHAT promises to be a winter of discontent was already breathing heavily down their necks as leaders of world’s 20 developed and fast-developing nations joined their heads together in Washington, mid-November, in a desperate effort to find a way out of the present chaos during the summit called by President George W. Bush.

Here in central France too a deciduous autumn is only a few weeks short of letting the Loire Valley slip under a frosty mantle and hibernate for a good three months. Not all farmers here being winegrowers, blazing oceans of sunflower crops in full bloom blind you in sudden bursts, stunning you with their majestic beauty as you drive along winding roads through the Sancerrois vineyards in a daze.

The sun, for once that it has managed to break through fog and cloud, is keeping a low profile and wisely, discretely, follows its modest trajectory westward, feeling safer behind tall tree trunks. Nevertheless, in dramatic, horizontal volleys it flickers now and then the golden confetti of dead leaves that are wont to fly off their uneasy sanctuaries of fast-blackening branches under pressure from an increasingly bitter north wind that already has the foretaste of harsh winter.

Our old friend André de la Roche has harvested his white Sauvignon grapes and has safely plunged them into their long, secretive whisper as they ferment in dark underground cellars before yielding, in about a year and half, the centuries-old nectar of the gods they are famous for.

Does he have an opinion on the US election and the international financial crisis that is likely to remain the biggest headache for the new president come January?

“Oh, the US election! Pardon me if I recuse the sentimental approach that seems to be the fashion of the day and try to put two and two together in a more rational manner, incorrigible Cartesian that I am!

“American political tradition has it that a Democrat or a Republican president is given another shot at the end of the first four-year term. After two consecutive terms it is always time for change. There have been exceptions of course, but for very special reasons. Jimmy Carter’s 1976-80 presidency was so disastrous he was denied a second chance by the voters. In contrast, his successor became so popular that the Republicans could stretch their administration to 12 years once Ronald Reagan’s second term expired and George Bush Sr took over as president. Then things slunk back into normality. Eight years for the Democrat Bill Clinton, the next eight for the Republican George W. Bush. The new president had to be a Democrat, period. And sorry for being such a spoilsport!

“Why the financial crash? Blame it on the market fundamentalists. It all goes back to the roaring successes of the Reagan-Thatcher era in the early ’80s. Those were very special circumstances. President Reagan’s reforms included deep across-the-board tax cuts, market deregulation and drastic steps to contain inflation. His policies resulted in the largest peacetime economic boom the United States has ever known and the creation of 35 million new jobs.

“Margaret Thatcher at the same time inherited a Britain in shambles because of irrationally exaggerated trade-union power, all too frequent strikes and a miserably failed welfare state. She was the one who gave a death blow to collectivism by destroying all sorts of state protection to businesses.

“There are two ways of interpreting miracles. You become a fundamentalist and take a distance from all forms of mathematical and scientific explanations. Or you stick to a rational approach and ready yourself to emend from time to time the holy scripture you have elaborated in your head.

“Like any other myth, the Thatcher-Reagan economic miracle had turned into such a divine ideology for market fundamentalists like Milton Friedman who, good for him, did not live long enough to witness this nightmare.

“Three factors had contributed to the strengthening of the fundamentalists’ illusion. Unlimited expansion of credit, a breathless pace of innovations through marketing wizardry and, third, globalisation.

“While the globalisation point is easily understandable to all, let me explain the first two. The virus-laden sub-prime credits were marketed round the world, chiefly by banks, as sound investment. The Wall Street reference was seen by ordinary citizens, and that includes millions of old people and not-so-old retirees, as a noble guarantee that their savings will flourish, or at least stay intact.

“What is most surprising is that so far no government, no politician and no economist has qualified the banks by the definition they have justifiably earned for themselves — thieves!

“President Nicolas Sarkozy, who literally goaded President Bush into calling the G20 summit, is right when he says it is not capitalism itself that is to be blamed but the absence of proper safeguards. One only has to go back a little to Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus and David Ricardo to learn that the forefathers of modern capitalism were also against laissez-faire. Only time will prove the authenticity of Sarkozy’s claim that by organising the Washington summit he has managed to ‘bell the American cat’.”

Descendant of a long and ancient line of French aristocracy, André de la Roche prefers to qualify himself as “just another winegrower in the Sancerre region”. He says if the G20 leaders could essentially stick to two points they can easily end the crisis. First, they should not waste time in the romantic nonsense of redistributing the world’s wealth equitably among the hard-working and the talented as well as the idle and the quarrelsome. Second, they should come up with a set of rules and regulations to control the world of finance, especially Wall Street.

With their winter of discontent already knocking on the door, the G20 leaders and the new US president are to meet on April 30. Will that be the turning point to a glorious summer?

The writer is a journalist based in Paris.

Heritage on display

THE Gulf states are famous for their shopping malls and skyscrapers, but now they are intent on promoting their cultural heritage with an ambitious plan to open a string of museums after Qatar unveiled a spectacular showcase for Islamic art at the weekend. The collection housed in the Museum of Islamic Art may not be the biggest in the world but it is a contender for being the most impressive.

Built on an artificial island on reclaimed land, the museum, designed by one of the world’s leading architects, IM Pei, holds 800 artistic and historical treasures from three continents and illustrates Islamic culture spanning 1,100 years.

The inauguration was attended by heads of state and celebrities, including the Hollywood actor Robert De Niro, who will bring his long-established Tribeca film festival to Qatar next year. Georgina Adam, from the Art Newspaper, described the museum as “fabulous”.

“It’s got that Pei finish. It is elegant and simplistic. The display rooms are dark and it is like a treasure chest. “The collection is very good and for one that was assembled so rapidly it is remarkable,” she said.

She added that Gulf states were beginning to see culture as a missing part of the puzzle. “They have the ritzy airports, big towers and financial institutions, but they want to get culture and they’re very competitive. Qatar wants to distinguish itself from Dubai, which is seen as brash, and it has got in there first.

“New money does not have art. There was a time when America was new money and it went around buying art. The Russians have done it and so have the Chinese. It is also a question of pride — pride in being Arab.”

The oil-rich state has enlisted other top architects — Jean Nouvel and Santiago Calatrava — to design museums for its capital city.

Sheikha al-Mayassa, arts patron and daughter of the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, told journalists: “We want to show that Islam is a peaceful civilisation, which has always called for tolerance and coexistence among different peoples.”

Her mother, Sheikha Mozah Bint Nasser al-Missned, is also helping to promote Qatar as a cultural destination by opening an Arab Museum for Modern Art.

It will give an overview of contemporary artistic genres in the Arab world, bringing together the works of the Maghreb Arabs of north-west Africa alongside those of the Mashriq eastern Arabs, and will comprise more than 5,000 paintings. There will be a special section featuring Arabic calligraphy and more than 700 antiques, sculptures, ceramics amd metalwork representing the civilisations of Mesopotamia, Arabia, Greater Syria, Egypt and other areas.

John Martin, director of contemporary art fair Art Dubai, the biggest event of its kind in the Middle East, said the Gulf was inventing itself as a home for Islamic art.

— The Guardian, London

OTHER VOICES - Middle East Press

Showing respect

The Jordan Times

Once again, the Royal Marine Conservation Society has had to increase its activities and incur expenses to clean up litter blown into the sea and onto the reefs from the beaches in Aqaba.

While the Jordan Tourism Board … spends thousands of dinars promoting tourism sites in Jordan, people littering the beaches and marine sites in Aqaba hinder these efforts….

Aqaba used to be a prime destination for divers, local and international, who want to view the unique tropical coral and marine life of the Red Sea. Lately, however, letters have been received by dive operators in Aqaba about the enormous amount of unsightly garbage, mostly plastic and aluminium cans, blanketing Aqaba’s reefs.

Word of mouth travels fast, and several dive tour organisers in the UK have opted to bypass Aqaba, preferring Eilat, Sharm El Sheikh, Nuweibeh…. This is an economic loss for Jordan, translated into jobs and money. Most Jordanians … do not realise the devastating effect litter has on the marine ecosystem, starving living coral of needed sunlight and food, emitting toxic chemicals that poison coral polyps.

It takes very little effort to clean up after a trip to the beach. Citizens have a duty to respect nature. They can clean up their own garbage, become participants in organised clean-up campaigns or just pick up trash when they see it, even if they didn’t create it. — (Nov 24)

US dominance

The Peninsula Qatar

A new report released by the US intelligence agencies has painted a bleak picture of the world in the next two decades. But the weak-hearted … need not worry because a closer scrutiny reveals the report has made no new explosive predictions and offers a perspective of global events from the American standpoint. After all, it comes from the same intelligence community which had launched the war against Iraq looking for [WMDs].

The report, titled ‘Global trends 2025: A transformed world’, serves as a guidepost for the incoming [Democratic] administration…. Its central finding is that the US influence in the world will drastically wane in the next two decades….

An interesting finding in the report which is of relevance to the region is its prediction that Al Qaeda’s terrorist wave might be breaking up, and “its inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think.” In fact, Al Qaeda has been on the decline in the past few years, as is evident from its inability to mount any attack. It was the US intelligence agencies which had magnified the threats from this terror network, and their new finding is just a statement of the current reality rather than a prediction. The report’s finding about terrorist groups getting access to nuclear weapons in the future and an impending nuclear arms race in the Middle East too is an exaggeration…. — (Nov 22)