Obama’s likely approaches
By Tariq Fatemi
THE skinny kid with the funny name has created history, confounding critics and exhilarating supporters. Obama’s victory has undoubtedly generated great hope, with some seeing it as the fulfilment of Martin Luther King’s ‘I have a dream’ speech.
Expectation abroad is even stronger, with many believing that he will transform America from a reckless, uncaring bully into an advocate of dialogue and engagement.
But this is a tall agenda for the leader of a country with a strict separation of powers and multiple centres of influence, and this at a time of unprecedented economic crisis. However, as citizens of a poor, mismanaged, conflict-ridden country, our primary interest is in Obama’s policy on issues that matter to us. These are the Palestinian issue, which is central to the deep-seated angst felt by Muslims towards the US, and the occupation of Iraq that has become a powerful impetus to those who preach violence against the West. Closer to home, the war on terror may have begun in Afghanistan, but now threatens to cause havoc in Pakistan. Finally, it is America’s relations with Pakistan, both bilaterally and in the context of regional politics, that interests us.
During the campaign, Obama was stridently pro-Israel, describing the Jewish state’s birth as a “miracle”. The recent appointment of Rahm Emanuel as his chief of staff may have been done to cover his flanks at home, but it reinforces Arab worries about Obama.pset diisaf his supporters,ut others claim that this was meant to s how the US develops relations with India, Iran and The dynamics of Middle East politics, however, is changing, influencing even fervently pro-Israeli Americans to recognise the folly of pursuing a policy that fuels anti-US sentiments and discredits pro-American leaders in the region, without enhancing Israel’s interests.
This lends credence to concern in Israel that Obama may break away from traditional US deference to its interests, while peace advocates such as Uri Avnery are hopeful that unlike Bush Obama will not give Israel “a carte blanche for any violent adventure it desires” and instead recognise that “there is no chance for progress towards the Israeli-Palestinian peace without American pressure on the Israeli government.” Obama may therefore opt to forcefully build on understandings reached at the Annapolis conference.
On Iraq Obama’s position has been clear from the day he spoke out against the invasion. He favours an urgent policy review to determine the pace of US troop withdrawal from that country, after an early handing over of combat duties to the Iraqi National Army, while leaving behind only a small contingent of US troops to fulfil essential security needs.
It is however Obama’s position on Iran, Afghanistan, India and, of course, Pakistan that interests us primarily because they are interrelated and affect us in more ways than one. While Obama had spoken of engagement with Tehran, initiating a dialogue would be the easy part but reaching an understanding would involve protracted and contentious negotiations that would have to involve other stakeholders as well because their core interests may be mutually exclusive.
The advantages of a thaw between Washington and Tehran would however be immense and have a salutary effect on the region. Recent reports suggest that Obama may also want to engage Iran to reach out to ‘reconcilable elements’ within the Taliban to take advantage of the fact that neither Iran nor the US wants to see its interests damaged by the Taliban. This approach would mark a sharp departure from the Bush administration’s current focus on military operation to the exclusion of other options.
As regards relations with India Obama is likely to pursue his predecessor’s goal of establishing strategic relations as this enjoys bipartisan support in the US. Some Indian scholars are however worried about his opposition to proliferation, fearing that differences on nuclear-related issues could become a potentially debilitating factor. Obama had earlier informed Manmohan Singh that his administration would press for US ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty while promoting a “verifiable, multilateral treaty” to end production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and urged India to “cooperate with the US in these multilateral efforts”.
India has also found fault with Obama’s public support for accelerated Indo-Pakistan normalisation, including renewed efforts for a resolution of the Kashmir issue, which he believes is essential to permit Pakistan to devote its resources and energies to the war on terror. Some Indians have also expressed the fear that this could lead to an even-handed policy towards the two South Asian rivals, resurrecting the zero-sum game and ending India’s special status in the American scheme of things. This however is unlikely.
Now, as regards Pakistan, Obama has repeatedly acknowledged that the war on terror cannot be won without its full support and commitment and therefore has called for meaningful engagement with the democratic government in Islamabad, including meeting its security concerns. According to The Washington Post, the new map of the Afghan battle space includes Pakistan’s tribal region, which the US military and intelligence leaders see as inextricably linked.
Incidentally, two scholars currently advising the Centcom chief on Afghanistan — the American Barnett Rubin and the Pakistani Ahmed Rashid — have advocated a comprehensive multi-state approach, which they call “a regional grand bargain”, pointing out that Afghanistan is “the scene of not only the war on terror, but also of long-standing Afghan-Pakistan disputes, the India-Pakistan conflict, US-Iranian antagonism, Russian concerns about Nato, Shia-Sunni rivalry, regional energy competition and even domestic turmoil in Pakistan”.
This basket of problems would be daunting for any single leadership, which has led them to recommend the establishment of a contact group for the region authorised by the UN Security Council to “promote dialogue between India and Pakistan not only to find a solution to the Kashmir dispute but also to resolve their differing interests in Afghanistan, as well as to promote a regional plan for economic development and integration”. This project does sound “audacious and naïve” as the authors admit but without such an initiative there is a little hope for the region.
But before such an initiative can be launched the US has to overhaul its Afghanistan strategy which should include engaging the Taliban to isolate and weaken Al Qaeda. As regards Pakistan the US has to give greater focus to strengthening its democratic institutions while recognising that peace and stability in Afghanistan cannot be achieved at the expense of Pakistan’s security interests.
Pakistan’s success is however dependent on what its own leadership does to ensure better governance and the rule of law and devise a more coherent policy for the tribal belt, including massive economic assistance and necessary social and administrative reforms. Most importantly it has to create a national consensus in favour of battling the militants while seeking to re-negotiate the terms of engagement with the US in order to generate genuine public support for this relationship.


It’s payback time
By Mario Osava
THIS is a good time for all those who resisted the “neoliberal” free market economic model of the past few decades, often as lone voices preaching in the wilderness. Politicians, experts and social activists must take advantage of the current financial crisis to bury this model once and for all, together with all forms of speculation.
“We must propose structural changes” to the international financial system, because ”such a serious crisis is the best time to demand them,” says French economist Bruno Jetin, a professor at the University of Paris North. All banks should be nationalised, but that is not enough: they must also be “democratised, and subjected to social oversight,” because many public banks, like the Bank of Brazil, “operate as if they were private concerns,” said Jetin.
Prof Rogerio Sobreira says that the conflict between a greater role for the state, and a free market, is of crucial importance. When the crisis became acute, everyone was in favour of strong state intervention, even the nationalisation of banks, in all sorts of countries, but this was “emergency action by the state as saviour,” and the continued presence of the state will be questioned by the economic liberals later on.
Some internal contradictions within governments, especially between Central Banks and finance ministries, are becoming more acute. In Brazil, the dominance of the monetary authority (the Central Bank) suffered a blow when emergency measures were needed to avoid a greater economic slowdown.
Panic, followed by recession in rich countries and its repercussions in the developing world, are fuelling a rapid expansion in unemployment, which is sure to provoke reactions from trade unions and social movements.
— IPS News


