Oil may touch $200/barrel by 2030

Published November 7, 2008

LONDON, Nov 6: Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the Financial Times said on Wednesday quoting International Energy Agency report due next week.

The developed world’s energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year’s $108 a barrel for 2030 and assumes oil prices will rebound from today’s $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015.

Output from the world’s oil fields is declining at a natural rate of 9 per cent, the IEA found, following the most comprehensive review of its kind. This decline rate is curtailed to 6.7 per cent when current investments to boost production are made. However, even with such investments, the decline rate worsens significantly to 8.6 per cent by 2030. The declining rates are steeper than the industry had previously assumed. They are also slightly steeper than an earlier draft of the report because the IEA has expanded the study to 800 oil fields, adding 250 smaller fields.

If the IEA’s predictions come true then Pakistan which is hoping to save about $7 billion from its budgeted oil import bill of $13 billion for the current financial year following the steep fall in the world oil prices from $147 a barrel in June to $60 currently is expected once again to see its budget coming under severe pressure from the oil bill by July next.

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