KARACHI, Oct 16: An official of the ministry of agriculture confirmed on Thursday that rice crop close to harvesting will be 11 per cent more than the last year, but sugarcane crop is expected to drop by 30-40 per cent. The next wheat crop is likely to suffer from water shortage.

According to original estimates, the country is likely to produce 6.2 million tons of rice this year compared to 5.6 million tons achieved last year. The increase in rice production has been achieved despite water shortage, which was compensated by heavy rains, said Arif Khairi, deputy secretary of Sindh agriculture department while talking to Dawn on Thursday.

He did not comment on size of cotton crop, which is ready for picking but said that the sowing target fixed at 650,000 acres could not be achieved.

He said both the rice and cotton crops in the province were mostly free from large virus attack, which was contained by swift action by farmers and farm experts.

About urea, the official said that its prices have jumped because of its excessive use by farmers. The growers did not use DAP for their crops due to extraordinary high price and instead apply urea to the standing crops, mainly cotton and rice.

Mr Khairi confirmed that during the Rabi crop water shortage is expected to reach 35 to 40 per cent. There was, however, no water shortage during the kharif crop due to enough rains which compensated for the shortage in canal waters.

Sindh Abadgar Board secretary general Majid Nizamani warned that the next year wheat target set at 2.5 million tons would be short by at least five million tons if water availability and fertiliser were not ensured during the Rabi crop. He advised the government to revise downward wheat cultivated area by five per cent in the present scenario of shortage of water and inputs.

He estimated that during the Rabi season water availability will be only 30 million acre feet against the actual requirement of 50maf. The ministry itself had admitted that there would be 40 per cent water shortage, which is expected to increase with the latest move by India to block water flowing from River Chenab.

The SAB official further suggested that the DAP should be further subsidised and be made available at Rs2,000 per 50 kg bag, which is currently available at Rs3,100.

Anwer Bachani, secretary, Sindh Chamber of Agriculture, said that a bag of urea was currently available at Rs850 per bag against the government price of Rs650.