September 28, 2008	Sunday	Ramazan 27, 1429

LAHORE, Sept 27: The water inflow in the four rivers — Indus, Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab — on Saturday fell to a historic low of 86,900 cusecs — a drop of 10,000 cusecs in the last 24 hours — from 97,000 cusecs on Friday.

According to officials of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), the rivers seem to be following 2004 pattern, when all of them went down to create a drought-like situation in the country. The situation could turn out to be even worse if the trend continued, they feared.

The authority had planned to deplete Tarbella Dam by 50 feet (to a level of 1,500 feet above the sea level) before squeezing supplies from there. The dam level, however, had come down to 1,994 feet on Saturday, but Irsa was still forced to release 11,000 cusecs against a paltry inflow of 47,700 cusecs.

“It is certainly a panic position,” says an official of the Punjab Irrigation Department. The Mangla lake was also depleting fast as the authority was releasing 38,000 cusecs against an inflow of 13,900 cusecs, he added.

Talking about the recent rains, he said water supply had been reduced by almost 20 per cent during the last two weeks because of supply crisis. “The recent spell has mitigated it to some extent.

However, it is hard to exactly measure the extent of relief that it provided,” he added.

He said the Irsa had been releasing more than 80,000 cusecs of water from Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma reservoirs during September to meet irrigation and hydel power generation needs of the country.

However, due to low inflows in September, Irsa, which distributes water among the four provinces, released three million acre feet (MAF) out of 11maf stored during the monsoon season. Punjab, he said, would at least need 20maf water for the coming Rabi crops.

Kabul River on Saturday was flowing at 11,300 cusecs and Chenab had dropped to 14,000 cusecs.

“Though the river inflow resembles 2004 pattern, Indus and Kabul are at almost three-decade low, and Chenab River had never gone down from 35,000 cusecs even at worst of times,” says another official of Punjab Irrigation Department.

The situation can spell disaster for the coming Rabi crop, when shortage could rise up to 50 to 60 per cent against previous estimates of 35 to 40 per cent. Should that happen, the wheat crop would face the brunt and the country’s food security could face new pressures.

The situation only accentuates the need for building new reservoirs, says Hamid Malhi of the Punjab Water Council. “The PPP government has to make hard choices if it wanted Pakistan to prosper, in agricultural terms at least.

The need for new reservoirs is almost established and carries national consensus behind it. The technical committee formed by the previous government recommended building dams.

But, unfortunately, the government, instead of building new dams, had started abandoning them. Such behaviour has not pulled the country out of food and agriculture crisis, nor it would in future.

The government should come out leading the nation, rather than following politically biased instincts,” he demanded.