September 23, 2008	Tuesday	Ramazan 22, 1429

LAHORE, Sept 22: The government seems to be waiting for a miracle to boost wheat production this year, expecting a ‘bumper crop’ but ensuring provision of only half of the required inputs, says AgriForum Pakistan.

In a meeting of the forum’s executive committee on Monday, it was noted that wheat sowing would start within days in upper Sindh, and the process would gradually expand to the entire country in the next 10 weeks.

The government has set a wheat sowing target of 2.2 million acres, which, given the precarious state of inputs’ supply seems an impossibility, and a production target of 25 million tons presenting a downright “fools’ paradise” scenario.

“One look at the state of water supply is enough to explain the apprehensions pertaining to government’s potential failure to meet the acreage and production targets,” says forum chairman Ibrahim Mughal.

“The wheat crop needs some 26 to 28 acre inches water to mature. By that calculation, 2.2 million acres would require around 50 million acre feet of water. The river system provides around 30 million acre feet if there is no shortage of water. But with 40 per cent projected shortage, the system supply would drop down to 18 million acre,” he claimed.

Tubewells pumped out around 40 million acre feet yearly – 20maf in Kharif and roughly the same quantity in Rabi, he said and added: “Even if 20maf is added to 18maf from rivers and dams, where would the remaining 1.2 (around 24 per cent) come from? This 24 per cent would be a make or break factor for the crop. In the absence of these 1.2maf, how the government plans to achieve acreage and yield targets is anybody’s guess. But, the plan does not seem real.”

The fears of potential failure on wheat front become more potent if one only looks at the fertiliser availability situation in the country, thinks Rana Majid Zafar of the forum. The country will need 2.5 million tons of urea during the coming season, and it does not have more than one million tons available – a deficit of staggering 1.5 million tons or 60 per cent, he adds. “The requirement of phosphate fertiliser for Rabi season is around 1.1 million tons and the current availability is only 400,000 tons – again a deficit of 60 per cent. The recent import of 55,000 tons of urea would hardly cover 500,000 acres. One really knows not whom the government is trying to befool with increased acreage and yield targets. Understanding the magnitude of crisis and planning accordingly is the key to solving it. But, the officialdom, instead, is busy painting a rosy picture and deriving political mileage out of it,” he lamented.

As if both these factors were not enough for review of wheat strategy, the non-availability of weedicides, which could affect 10 to 15 per cent production, will be another factor pushing the yield target further away this year, claims Rao Afsar Khan, a forum member from Rajanpur.

“Given the high cost and availability risk of other inputs, usage of weedicides has gone low on farmers’ priority list. The government would do better if it could finance weedicides in the country. It only costs Rs100 to secure an acre of wheat. It would not take more than Rs2.2 billion to secure the entire crop but the benefit could be immense even if it could increase 40Kg yield per acre – totaling up to a fiscal benefit of Rs17 billion for national exchequer,” he said.

Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif must convene an immediate meeting of all stakeholders to reassess wheat strategy, demands Mr Mughal. After all, the province contributes over 80 per cent of national production, and has a make-or-break value in country’s food security, he says. “The meeting must devise a mechanism to ensure inputs at affordable prices in the province and facilitate farmers in sowing and nurturing wheat. Otherwise, the country may risk swelling its food import bill next year,” he adds.