KARACHI, Sept 2: While optimists predict the quick beginning of an economic recovery process soon after September 6 elections for presidency as the focus of decision makers in Pakistan and Western countries will shift from politics to economy, the pessimists foresee doom and a collapse of the present political structure that would spell more economic turmoil.

Hurt and bruised, after what he perceives of having been ditched in the coalition, Nawaz Sharif of PML(N) is predicting a doom and a collapse of the government “not because they want it, but under its own pressure,” Amjad Rashid Sheikh, a global food merchant, involved in relief business in Afghanistan and Iraq is confident of an economic revival process in Pakistan “very soon after September 6 elections.”

“With the presence of a political party at the centre and in all four provinces and also in key places of government, is a strong signal of stability to the local business and foreign investors,’’ Amjad Rasheed, who is chairman of a Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry standing committee on Banking and Finance said. He is confident that the US legislature will not take long in approving a bill for Pakistan’s assistance package.

He expects increasing inflows of foreign exchange and investors’ attention on Pakistan once the US and Western countries show confidence and support to political leadership in Islamabad.

With all this optimism, the businessmen have some reservations on capacity of the PPP leaders in selecting suitable managers at the key places. “Prudence, integrity and public service are the key elements of a manager and administrator that cannot be compromised,’’ a leader of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry said. The PPP government should opt for hard professionals for all key jobs. On Sunday evening a big gathering of local businessmen expressed complete support for Asif Zardari as president of the country on the hope that his election will bring political stability and create right environment for business and investment.

While expressing support, none of the businessmen, who spoke that evening in presence of Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah failed to mention the serious law and order problem, frequent power breakdowns and back breaking inflation.

Iqbal Ibrahim, chairman All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) wanted the PPP government to take hard decisions to tackle energy crisis in the country. Siraj Kassim Teli of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry and others wanted a clear roadmap for revival of economy in which they want to play their role.

After PML(N) decided to quit the government sometimes in May when judges of superior courts were not restored, the PPP government constituted a Economic Advisory Council headed by Finance Minister Syed Naveed Qamar. A senior banker Shaukat Tareen is convenor of this council, which has Bashir Ali Mohammad, Tariq Saeed Saigol and Farouq Rahmatullah as members, besides Shanaz Wazir Ali and Hina Rabbani Khar, the state minister as members.

The council is holding its fourth meeting on Thursday in which the government will be asked to share with it the roadmap for recovery of the economy, if there is any. In mid-August, the federal finance minister indicated an inflow of $3.5 billion of foreign exchange by end of the month or early September.

So far, the Asian Development Bank has informed of $500 million assistance out of a promised $1.5 billion. Media report suggests that the World Bank bureaucracy was not, too, receptive to the presentation of the state minister Hina Rabbani Khar. Saudi Arabia is still not forthcoming on its commitment of about $6 billion oil facility assistance. Pakistan is also desperately seeking help for urea import from Saudi Arabia.

A businessman member of the economic advisory council is confident that once the US authorities give a green signal to Pakistan on financial assistance, the Saudis will not remain far, too, behind in approving the oil facility package. “Pakistan is a victim of geo-politics and will have to be bailed out by geo-politics only,” he said.

“We are pegging prices of wheat and other agricultural products to those in neighboring countries, which obviously means a substantial increase,’’ an analyst said. Despite this rise in prices of agricultural products, the farmer is not getting his due because the fertiliser dealers and banks are over-charging.

The council has identified eight areas where reforms are needed and has formed committees. Shaukat Tareen said that the council had proposed to address 30 per cent of population immediately with relief measures. The income support programme addresses hardly 12 per cent population.

It is meeting at Islamabad on Thursday to take stock of the situation amidst reports of depletion of foreign exchange reserves, continued mounting pressure on exchange value of rupee, widening trade deficit and expanding current account imbalance, increasing bank defaults by textiles and layoffs in Karachi and Lahore.

The council had proposed a package of proposals for incorporation in the federal budget presented in June. But to its dismay, the proposals were largely ignored.