And now the package

THE law and constitution are for the good of the people and not an end in themselves. Nevertheless this argument cannot be pressed too far, for ultimately it is the people themselves who will be the losers if the sanctity of the law and constitution is defiled. Seen against this backdrop, the current political situation contains elements of both hope and despair. In recent weeks, to the frustration of the PML-N, the reinstatement of judges has been delayed, because the PPP has linked it to a larger scheme of constitutional amendments. But now the latter has sent a draft of its proposed package to its coalition partners. The package visualises the insertion of a clause offering indemnity to some of President Musharraf’s actions such as the promulgation of the NRO and the holding of elections but it remains silent on issues such as imposition of emergency and the Provisional Constitution Order promulgated on Nov 3 last year.

Admittedly, indemnifying the president for some of his actions will be seen as a controversial element of the package but it is also important to acknowledge that it aims to clip the president’s wings, restore all the judges and re-establish parliament’s sovereignty and supremacy. In effect it makes the prime minister the chief executive. If voted on and finally approved, it will be the largest body of amendments made in the 1973 Constitution by a political government.

The PPP seems to have no reservations about a wholesale reinstatement of all the judges, including Iftikhar Chaudhry, if it were sure that the NRO would not be repealed by the Supreme Court. Obviously, a repeal of the NRO would take Asif Ali Zardari back to the courts and possibly exile, if not prison. On the other hand, a concession is being made to the president that may eventually pave the way for his exit for he is not likely to leave office faced with the prospect of prosecution. There can only be two sorts of people who would oppose this package: those who believe that the president needs to retain powers such as those to dissolve parliament and appoint services chiefs in the name of ‘checks and balance’, and those with vendetta on their minds. Admitted that the restoration of the judiciary was pledged through a resolution in parliament and it is now being proposed through a constitutional amendment. But should this fact be a show-stopper even when the same amendment promises to deliver almost all that was agreed in the Charter of Democracy including a drastic cut in presidential powers? To indemnify an all-powerful president would have been one thing but wouldn’t it be parliamentary democracy’s sweet revenge to have a lame-duck incumbent, shorn of all his authority, in the presidency? One wishes an expeditious conclusion to this phase so that all attention can be focused on the miseries of the common Pakistani.

What the State Bank says

THE SBP’s third quarterly report for the outgoing fiscal on the state of the economy does not make us any wiser. Much of what it says is already known. Yet it does underline the serious challenges facing the economy, and suggests a few measures that are crucial in terms of heading off any further economic downturn. The SBP has knocked down the GDP growth estimate to 5.5-6.0 per cent — well below the original target of 7.2 per cent — from an earlier projection of 6.5-7.0 per cent in December owing to “broad deterioration in the key macroeconomic indicators due to a combination of adverse domestic (political volatility, energy crunch, price inflation, water shortage, etc) and global developments (rising oil and food prices, global financial crisis, etc)”. For the first time in five years, the economy will grow at less than six per cent.

While domestic factors are to blame for substantially lower growth in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, escalating global oil and food prices have skewed the fiscal balance. The budgetary gap and the current account deficit are set to rise to seven per cent and just below eight per cent of GDP respectively. Price inflation is running into double digits, adding to the economic woes of the common man, and other economic indicators have deteriorated sharply. Though the situation may look quite dismal as the current economic impasse seems to be bordering on stagflation, all is not lost. The economy isn’t going to unravel any time soon. The problem could still be salved. A policy focus, as suggested by the SBP, on regaining macroeconomic stability through corrective measures could quickly reinvigorate growth momentum. That requires the government, in the short term, to cut down unproductive expenditure and reduce its dependence on borrowings from the SBP for financing the budget, as well as to address structural weaknesses hampering the expansion of the industrial and agricultural sectors. The budget for the next financial year will be a test of the government’s commitment to addressing the increasing fiscal imbalances and reviving the economy.

A Royal success

THE purists may scoff but the public is delighted and, like it or not, it’s the majority vote that counts. Indeed there is an element of elitism in the barbs directed against the Indian Premier League. Some of the concerns voiced are right on the money, pun intended, but the ebbing flood of criticism also appears to be coming from a position of unwarranted superiority. It is time the naysayers emerged from the ether and saw the real world at ground level. Twenty20 contests are a thrill a minute, usually take place after the day’s work is done and are over in less than four hours. That’s why they are an instant hit with a public that craves spectacle more than stratagem, for whatever reason. And how many decades ago was it that cricket was not commercialised? It’s just a matter of degree, though the IPL does represent a quantum leap in that direction.

Even though all Pakistani players save Sohail Tanvir, and to a lesser extent Kamran Akmal, proved to be dismal flops these past few weeks, that did not diminish public interest here in the IPL. True, their presence in the team probably explained why many in Pakistan were rooting for the Rajasthan Royals, who deservedly clinched the championship on Sunday. But as a former Pakistan captain pointed out, there was no sign of viewer fatigue throughout the tournament, lengthy as it was. The IPL also saw cricketers from across the globe playing together as a unit, and this is a significant development. Even if there is no racism in cricket — though some of the evidence suggests otherwise — the IPL experience could help make the players more culturally attuned and avoid misunderstandings arising out of ‘difference’. Besides the stars who raked in the big bucks, the young and largely unknown Indian cricketers who featured in the IPL will derive great benefit from the tournament. They have rubbed shoulders with the greatest in the game and experienced pressure-cooker situations that domestic cricket can never provide. Yes, there is a downside. Too much Twenty20 could lead to players abandoning country in favour of the IPL and spin-off leagues, and increase the risk of burnout and injury. The one-day game could suffer, though it is unlikely that Test cricket will lose its core following. And yes, the ‘auctioning’ of players is in poor taste and needs a rethink. A balance that benefits the game and its fans has to be found.

OTHER VOICES - Sindhi Press

Uncertainty and stock crisis

Ibrat

THE Karachi Stock Exchange witnessed the benchmark KSE-100 index once more losing more than 500 points on Thursday when rumours about President Musharraf’s resignation were at their peak. The country remained in the grip of rumours until … the president himself contradicted them. The plunging of stocks … was due to political uncertainty.

Under the previous regime, the stock exchange had witnessed an artificial crash when some circles earned millions of rupees. Why was no protest staged against Shaukat Aziz? There are many dimensions of the recent stock market crisis. These factors include the worldwide slump in the stock markets, a decrease in remittances by overseas Pakistanis, the illegal business of money changers and weaking of the dollar.

If all these are seen in the context of the current political situation one can easily understand why the stock market plunged. — (May 30)

Bringing LGs under provinces

Khabroon

THE constitutional package is ready to be presented before the National Assembly….The law minister, Farooq Naek, has said that the local government system would be handed over to the provinces and this would also be made part of the constitutional package.

Along with the two major parties, the ANP is also in power. These parties have to work for the prosperity of the country and fulfil the promises made…during the poll campaign.

[F]ollowing the formation of an elected government in Sindh, the government initiated action against some district nazims which led to some political conflicts. The government should be careful while taking such an action. Bringing the local government system under provincial authority would be a positive step as the provinces would be in a better position to monitor their performance and service delivery to the masses…. — (June 1)

Selected and translated by Sohail Sangi

Why rapid growth is necessary

FINDING the right way to bring a country out of economic, political and social backwardness and to help its people out of despair and poverty remains an enterprise that continues to engage many great minds.

Over the last 60 years or so, starting from the time when millions of people in Asia and Africa were able to cast off the yoke of colonialism and take responsibility for their lives and for their future, development experts have continued to come up with recipes that would help release nations from poverty.

Some countries, most notably those in East Asia, succeeded. Some failed and continue to fail. Most of those who are still struggling are in the region known as Sub-Saharan Africa.

Pakistan’s own record has not been dismal. Not given much of a chance of success, it has clocked a fairly impressive record of growth over the last six decades. The gross domestic product has grown, averaging at more than four per cent a year over this period. There are only a score or so countries around the globe that can claim to have sustained such a record of growth over such an extended period. During the same period, the population has increased five and a half times, from only 30m in 1947, the year of the country’s birth, to an estimated 165m, 61 years later.

The proportion of people living in absolute poverty has declined from about 60 per cent in 1947 to around 30 per cent now. The size of the urban population has increased twelve-fold, from five million at the time of independence to around 60m in 2008. The structure of the economy has changed as well. At the time of its birth, Pakistan was an agricultural economy with no industry of any significance. More than half the gross domestic product was contributed by agriculture. Now the share of agriculture in GDP has declined to a bit over 20 per cent. Instead of agriculture, the service sector — both traditional and modern — has become the largest contributor to GDP.

The trajectory of growth Pakistan has followed over the last 60 years was not smooth and even. There were at least three periods of rapid economic progress and modernisation — in the 1960s, in the 1980s and in the early 2000s. Each of these periods ended in economic and political chaos. Why was the path to relative progress such a halting one? Why has Pakistan experienced so many jerks and jolts in its economic life? These questions are not easily answered and are better left to be dealt with by historians who investigate and write about these matters.

What concerns me today is another important question: what should the policymakers do now at a time of another halt to progress, another jerk in the move forward?

The fact that Pakistan is currently faced with an extremely serious economic crisis does not need repeating. The fact that the country’s new political masters need to quickly develop an approach for dealing with the stresses and strains under which the economy is operating at this time does not need to be repeated either. But what should policymakers do to address the problems the economy faces?

Economic theory is attempting to find an answer to this question at a time where the entire world — not just a few developing countries such as Pakistan — is having to deal with a sudden turn in the wheel of fortune. One group of development experts who recently contemplated this issue was led by the Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence. It recently issued its report to the public.

Spence and his colleagues argue that the Washington Consensus that became the guiding economic philosophy in the late 1980s and the 1990s is now dead. The Consensus was built on three pillars: stabilisation, privatisation and liberalisation. These are the pillars on which the economic team recruited by President Pervez Musharraf built the country’s economic structure. Prodded by the IMF, to which the Musharraf team turned in the first three years of military rule, Islamabad emphasised stability over growth, privatisation over state control and liberalisation over state management.

There were two problems with the way this structure was built, it neglected growth for the time when the economy was being stabilised and it made no attempt to develop a medium-term strategy for ensuring uninterrupted growth. It is not surprising that the structure the team built came crumbling down.

What does the Spence group advocate for a country in Pakistan’s situation. No single recipe will ensure sustainable and rapid economic growth. Each country must devise its own strategy, given its own circumstances. However, one ingredient must always be present in the strategy: an active government that strategises. Governments “are sometimes clumsy and sometimes errant but active, pragmatic governments are indispensable”, say the authors of the report. Pragmatism means dispensing with ideology and focusing on what the situation demands at any given time. This is one of the salient features of the Spence group’s report.

The other is the emphasis it places on growth itself. Without adequate growth in the economy and without sustaining it over time, improvements in human well-being are impossible. The report looks at the experience of 13 developing countries that have managed economic growth of seven per cent or more a year for at least 25 years.

Two lessons are drawn. One, fast and sustained growth “requires long-term commitment by a country’s political leaders”. Two, high and sustainable growth depends on deep engagement with the global economy. Engaging with the world requires developing an understanding of where it will end, where it is going. During the Musharraf period, Pakistan had the first but not the second. There was a singular lack of understanding about the structure and evolution of the global economy among the policymakers.

What about the role of the state that was downgraded by the Washington Consensus? Spence and colleagues argue that no country was able to achieve rapid economic growth without high rates of investment in infrastructure, education and health. They also emphasise that “growth strategies cannot succeed without a commitment to equality of opportunity”. Once again, Islamabad during the Musharraf period failed this test.

The Spence Commission’s findings come at an opportune time for Pakistan where a new political order is taking shape. As the new leadership begins to look at what the economy needs it would do well to study the findings of Spence and his colleagues and build them into a strategy for adjustment and growth that needs to be put quickly in place.

Unmaking of the state

“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma!” — Winston Churchill

PAKISTAN in this age and time clearly fits this description. The US prediction that the next 9/11 would come from Fata is no less ominous — Pakhtunkhwa certainly is in the eye of the storm.

Only last week, the Pak-India Forum for Peace and Democracy meeting scheduled in Peshawar for May 24-26 was postponed for ‘security reasons’. It had last met in Peshawar in November 1998 in an altogether different world. There was music and classical dancing by the Sheema Kermani troupe as well as panel discussions on diverse issues between the two rival neighbours. Our world seemed to be inching towards normality.

Most ordinary folks ask the question: from where have the Sufi Mohammads, Nek Mohammads, Baitullah Mehsuds, Fazlullahs, Mangal Baghs, Namdaars and their ilk suddenly appeared and fortified their positions, taking the public hostage and challenging the state? Why do these things not happen in Punjab where they have Raiwind, Mansoora and the renowned ‘bazaar’ alongside the famous Badshahi mosque? How do the profound and the profane coexist as their economies thrive? And here in our land known for centuries for its peaceful civilisations and syncretism of cultures there has suddenly emerged the most violent interpretation of religion threatening to take the country into the dark ages.

As Swat’s tenuous peace holds after a controversial agreement with the militants, cynics have termed it a total capitulation of the traditionally secular ANP and PPP to the Wahabi-sponsored movement supported by state intelligence agencies. The argument goes like this.

The caretaker government led by former Chief Minister Shams ul Mulk had already prepared the blueprint of this deal with the establishment’s man, Maulana Sufi Mohammad, who instigated the insurgency against the state for imposition of the Islamic system in 1994, and later on led thousands of gullible Pakhtuns to their deaths in Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11. He was not the only one who was indemnified for his crimes. Mullah Fazlullah, another shadowy character, who sprang into prominence last year after taking the entire Swat district hostage, also got official reprieve for his gross violations of human rights despite the fact that he had inflicted heavy losses on the provincial economy and infrastructure. In fact, both men have been rewarded with this peace agreement.

According to one Swati academic, “The liberal intelligentsia is pitched against the Taliban backed by the agencies to enforce Wahabi Sharia in the entire Malakand division. As a result there is a stifling silence and suffocating fear. In fact, Sufi Mohammad never signed the peace agreement but many others did on his behalf as Mullah Fazlullah was on a special umrah visit to Saudi Arabia. Armed vigilantes are defying the ban on weapons display and still targeting their opponents.”

According to another source, the government made commitments to the militants some of which have not been made public. As a result, the militants have started roaming around freely and are doing what they had done previously. Very few residents in Kabal, Kanju, Matta and Mingora are convinced that militants would abide by the guarantees given in clauses 3-16 of the agreement.

Talking to the people of Swat, I found that they resent the fact that a few unrepresentative hardcore militants should decide their future. They feel that by acquiescing to the demand for complete Sharia, the provincial government may further erode the credibility of the already vulnerable state institutions. No relief has been provided to the victims of the upheaval. To fill in the vacuum left by the destruction of institutions, a multi-pronged approach with a comprehensive participatory development plan and transparent governance is immediately needed. Both peace and development are essential components of this deal, which are not yet in sight.

Closer to Peshawar, in the Khyber Agency, Mangal Bagh representing the Lashkar-i- Islam is consolidating his position after eliminating all opposition. The recent gunning down of several followers of MNA Noor ul Haq Qadri’s relatively peaceful Qadriya silsila is equally disturbing with hardcore Taliban backers and notorious drug barons of the region having openly sided with the menacing Mangal Bagh brigade. The political authorities always look the other way.

When the killers of Qadri’s men were nabbed by the authorities, they were immediately freed within hours through ‘high level’ contacts. People living in the area also say that whenever a new killing spree takes place, the security personnel conveniently disappear from the scene. A representative of the Shia Toori tribe in Parachinar also reported the political authorities’ pressure to give safe passage to the Taliban into Afghanistan after the peace deal was struck in Fata.

Banned FM radios go on and off sermonising to the people on their dress code, religious rituals etc. The presence of over 200 brand new vehicles is tolerated by the political authorities and no action is taken against them. The Lashkar-i-Islam has virtually taken over Bara tehsil and the public is subjected to heavy fines for missing a prayer. Even old men are ducked in water for not following one Islamic code or another. In fact, people live under the shadow of intimidation.

For this reason, the ANP-PPP’s role has come in for a lot of flak from opponents for making a deal with hardcore Islamists. But Dr Minhaj ul Hasan who heads the history department at the Peshawar University has another view. He finds this approach to be in line with ‘atamam-i-hujat’, which, according to the Quran, is the last step to avoid a full-scale catastrophe which is the alternative to this peace agreement. “If peace fails this time we are in for big trouble,” he remarked.

Dr Fazl ur Rahim, who accompanied Dr Minhaj to Kabul to participate in the Bacha Khan peace conference, agreed, saying, “What we gathered from Nato officials there is worrying. If Pakistan does not get the Taliban to put their act together it may not be just pre-emptive missiles from across the border that we will get but the total obliteration of Fata and perhaps more!” he said.

A parody of Sufi poet Rehman Baba’s famous lines is making waves these days, “Da sabab da jahilanoTalibano – kor au gor au Pekhawar dree wana yo di!” (On account of the illiterate Taliban – our homes and graves and Peshawar have all become synonymous!)