May 29, 2008	Thursday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 23, 1429

KARACHI, May 28: Voicing deep concern over the Indo-US nuclear deal, an expert on international relations has said that there are “genuine apprehensions” that New Delhi may divert nuclear material to develop its nuclear weapons as a result of the deal, which would have serious implications for the South Asian region.

Dr Shaista Tabassum stated this while delivering her lecture on “Emerging Indo-US relations: concerns for Pakistan” at the Area Study Centre for Europe, the University of Karachi on Wednesday.

Describing the Indo-US nuclear deal as very sensitive, particularly in view of the post-9/11 period and the ongoing US-led war on terrorism, she dealt with various dimensions of the Indo-US relations, ranging from nuclear, to political, social, technological and economic.

At present, the Indo-US nuclear agreement signed on July 18, 2005, is one of the most debated issues in India. The agreement, according to Dr Shaista, benefits India much more than what is portrayed in the media. Firstly, although India agreed to open its civilian nuclear plants for inspection to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors yet preserved the right of deciding which of the reactors are civilian and which are not. Secondly, military facilities and stockpiles of nuclear fuel that India has produced over the years till now will be exempted from inspection or safeguard. Thirdly, the deal only talks about the civilian nuclear facilities while the number and capacity of weapon programmes, which is not restricted, is not discussed.

Dr Shaista said the civilian nuclear deal did not ask India to cap or limit its fissile material production. She said it was strange that India, which agreed to work with the US towards a treaty, banning production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, was not required to stop the production material for weapon now or to refrain from building additional weapons. “India does not even assume the obligations that the United States has under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to negotiate in good faith cessation of nuclear arms race at an early date and the elimination of nuclear arsenals,” she observed.

The US policymakers justifies the present nuclear deal as to address India’s energy needs for its growing economy, she said, arguing that the energy needs of India could have been addressed in a much different manner. She emphasised that parallel means of energy could have been explored or supplemented like supporting and strengthening the Indian coal industry, expanding the use of renewable energy sources and also by making India’s electricity grid more efficient.

Dr Shaista pointed out that the final communiqué declared that under the deal the US and India moved towards the creation of a strategic partnership spread over to the global level. After going through all major events of US-India and US-Pakistan relations, she said, it was very much apparent that the US policy with India was that of nuclear proliferation of both technology and weapons.

In the 1960s, the US brought this technology to the region through India. Pakistan entered in the race of acquiring the nuclear technology very late it was after its defeat by India in 1971 and the dismemberment. A high level of insecurity on its northern borders convinced the policymakers to go for a shortcut to acquire maximum strength. They saw nuclear weapon and technology as the best tool for creating deterrence and to restore the balance of power in the region.

The China factor

Like India’s policy, the US policy in South Asia, too, is China-centric, she said, adding that the China factor was unavoidable. Both the big democracies having a common perception with the common threat have come much closer to each other. The emerging economic power of China is an accelerating reason for this intimate Indo-US relation. Pakistan, a very close ally of China, cannot fit in this triangle.

Pakistan’s nuclear programme was also presented as an Islamic programme and there are very strong anti-Islamic sentiments in the US and the west. Although the government in Pakistan adopted a very pro-US and capitalistic approach in its dealing with economic and political matters but public opinion here didn’t appear in lieu with the government’s policies.

According to Dr Shaista, the future of the deal is in serious doubts mainly because the Communist Party and the BJP having very serious reservations are vocal against the deal.

It is likely that the deal will not get approval from the parliament in the required time although the ruling party is adamant to move forward even if it has to face some very crucial political challenges. Pakistan has also expressed its deep concerns over the much enhanced level of closeness that the US was developing with India. However, time has come when the concerns should be transformed in the revision of foreign policy.