May 23, 2008	Friday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 17, 1429

RAWALPINDI, May 22: The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has forecast that wheat production in Pakistan this year will decline slightly because of dry conditions in some areas and a reduced use of inputs.

However, the production may remain slightly above the average for the past five years, according to FAO’s ‘Food Outlook’ released on Thursday.

The forecast for world wheat output in 2008 stands at a record 658 million tons -- an 8.7 per cent increase over 2007. The bulk of the increase is expected in the major exporting countries.

In the northern hemisphere, where wheat crop seasons are more advanced, larger harvests are expected in all regions with the exception of Asia where output will remain close to last year’s record high.

World food consumption of wheat in 2008-9 is forecast to rise to 453 million tons, up by seven million tons, or 1.6 per cent, from 2007-8.

The per head wheat consumption will remain steady at around 67kg per annum. In the developing countries, the consumption is expected to remain unchanged at around 60kg in spite of an anticipated decline in China driven by a shift away from wheat to high-protein food.

High wheat prices are regarded as responsible for some of the decline in consumption levels in several developing countries in 2007-8 but a small recovery is expected in the new season, given the prospects for more favourable consumer prices.

Early signs for total world wheat utilisation in the 2008-9 marketing season point to the first substantial expansion since 2004-5. It is forecast to climb by 17 million tons, or 2.7 per cent, to 635 million tons from the stagnant level in 2007-8.

In sharp reversal to the situation of 2007-8, the anticipated recovery in wheat supplies in the new season is expected to boost feed use in particular, especially in light of anticipated lower availabilities of coarse grains, maize in particular. Feed utilisation of wheat is forecast to approach 118 million tons, up almost eight per cent from 2007-8.

The bulk of the anticipated growth is likely to occur in the United States. It is also forecast to rise in Australia, China and the European Union because of an anticipated increase in production.