IN politics, as in every other aspect of life, what people know and understand largely depends on what they see, hear and feel, and how they think and act. In looking at the unfolding events in our country, and at the acts of our current rulers, both visible and invisible, real and surreal, we see what is not, and see not what is, because all of us are prisoners of a system that takes the people for granted and denies them any right to know the reality and a role in determining their own destiny.

We have a civilian democratic set-up in the country brought to power by the people with overwhelming enthusiasm and by a majority vote, and a clear mandate for change. But there is no sign of any noticeable change yet on the national horizon. Elected governments have now been in place at the centre and in provinces for several weeks, but none has yet made its presence felt in our day-to-day life.

The only time we felt their presence was when some of them wearing black ribbons chanted “Go Musharraf go” slogans at the time of their oath-taking ceremony. Beyond this gesture of ‘helplessness’ on their part, our civilian democratic leadership has not shown even a semblance of any authority or control. Everyday, we are witnessing a new drama, a new crisis and a new tragedy with little clue or knowledge about its source or sponsor. It seems that the hidden hand is constantly at work. Bluff politics is the game of the day.

Amazing things are happening in our country. No one knows who is playing this cruel joke upon our people. Our scene today pathetically bears resemblance to Thomas Hobbes’ concept of primitive anarchy marked by a ‘war of one against all’ and to Rousseau’s idealisation of the ‘noble savage’. Indeed, it is the war of one against all that continues to rage in our ill-fated country. The same ghosts and the same wizardries continue to haunt our system.

The key faces as well as the fall guys of the outgoing regime remain untouched. We are living with the same persons, the same problems and the same policies. Decisions are still being made by the same powers even though invisibly. Harry Potter’s Lord Voldemort is still out there, calling the shots. He may have been weakened physically but his spirits remain energised. His legal wizards are well-entrenched in Islamabad’s smoky heights of political witchcraft and remain as skilful as ever in their constitutional manipulations and legal interpretations.

There are no signs of the new government anywhere. To be or not to be is indeed its dilemma. It is helpless against the rule of ‘tooth and claw’. The country remains possessed by the same invisible power that was responsible for its dismemberment, destroyed its constitutional structure and ruined its institutional integrity. The new parliament is neither free nor sovereign.

The situation could not be more pathetic for the newly-elected leadership. But who is to blame? Not the people. They have voted for change, and now await the change. They have voted against Musharraf and now want to see him go. What is it that keeps the elected leadership from fulfilling its mandate? Why is it hesitant to move ahead? The people are getting disillusioned with the government which appears to be incapable of fixing the fundamentals or even addressing the food and fuel crisis.

Our politicians are complicating the deposed judges’ issue beyond repair. They must realise that time is running out for them. Someone is surely engineering their problems with sophistry and acumen. Unless they pre-empt it, another déjà vu might be imminent in parliament. It is time for a wake-up call to themselves. They seem to have become hostage to their past weaknesses. They have not recovered from the technical knockout they received last year in the form of the notorious NRO.

Not too long ago, General Musharraf in his book In the Line of Fire had devoted several pages to the ‘serious downside’ of democracy, and had brazenly derided what he described as the ‘illiterate, feudal, tribal and parochial’ character of our democrats. He also described the parliamentarians and ministers as an example of ‘inefficiency, loot and plunder’.

To prove his point, he engineered a politically-motivated deal last year with the help of his supporters in Washington providing amnesty to all corruption charges during a specific period in the name of national reconciliation and political harmony. He killed two birds with one stone. He besmeared the image of Pakistan’s politicians as he did in his book In the Line of Fire, and also neutralised the country’s largest political party during and after the process of his controversial re-election.

His akhri mukka as he likes to call the NRO has left the opposition reeling flat on the ground, disgraced, demoralised and discredited in the eyes of the people. This is exactly what Musharraf wanted at this crucial stage for his survival. This is also the face of Pakistan’s politics of ‘loot and plunder’ that he had been trying to show the people all along since he came to power in defence of military take-overs in the country.

No amount of explanation can undo the damage that has been done to the country’s politicians and their politics. They have been punched below the belt and forced to take a full step back and cease fighting. It will be an uphill task for them now to recover from this blow. No wonder, only a PPP insider could mastermind the mysterious postponement of the by-election this week and then get away from the fiasco. He almost torpedoed the ruling coalition. It only shows how closely past shadows will continue to hang around.

The sole beneficiary of this national reconciliation has to be someone who was good in following the Machiavellian concept of elimination of political opponents through force or deceit, and sans ethics or morality. His tactical manoeuvres are indeed the key ingredient of his recipe for all political challenges to his authority. For now at least, this tactical ‘mother deal’ has secured General Musharraf against any challenge to his presidency in parliament.

THE daring, spectacular operation had all the elements of a James Bond thriller and, while reading this, older readers will presumably hark back to the memories of an Errol Flynn or a Douglas Fairbanks Jr. swinging along a sailboat’s ropes, teeth clenched over a double-edged sword.

Though nothing of that sort happened on April 11 this year, the scenario which unfurled that cloudless, breezeless afternoon in the Gulf of Aden nevertheless had all the features of a movie blockbuster, with French commandos in a Gazelle helicopter hovering over Le Ponant, a French cruise-liner stalled for many days in the Somali waters.

A week earlier, on April 4, Captain Patrick Marchesseau was the first to spot two speedboats racing towards Le Ponant that was leisurely returning from a trip to the Seychelles with no passengers on board but a crew of 29, among them 22 French citizens, six Filipinos and a Ukrainian plus the captain himself.

Sensing trouble, Marchesseau tried a fire-hose to repulse the invaders, who had by now started hoisting themselves on to the deck, but he had to give up as he was greeted with a Kalashnikov volley in return. He, however, succeeded in sending an SOS message before surrendering to the pirates.

The drama had the whole of France in its grip for the entire week before President Nicolas Sarkozy could give the go-ahead to a meticulously prepared secret operation plan involving four military helicopters and a couple of navy vessels. “His toughest challenge as commander-in-chief, with 30 lives very publicly at stake,” as a newspaper summed up the situation.

Fifteen years earlier, Sarkozy had personally been at the centre of a hostage drama. In 1993, as the 38-year-old mayor of Neuilly, a Parisian suburb, he had negotiated the release of several schoolchildren and carried a few of them out to safety in his own arms. This occurred when a manic-depressive, who had planted a frightening quantity of dynamite in the classroom as well as on his own person, threatened to blow up some 30 children if 100 million francs were not paid to him. He was later shot dead by the French special forces and the kids came out unharmed.

This time the Somali pirates were asking for two million dollars in cash, or else…

The money, in plastic bags, was dropped by the French army helicopter on board Le Ponant. The pirates, as per agreement, left in their own boats without harming anyone. It was then that two other missile-armed helicopters suddenly appeared on the horizon and gave chase to the pirates who had by that time disembarked at the Somali port of Garaad and were trying to escape in a waiting SUV. The French commandos landed, blazing their guns and capturing the six men with their loot. In a gesture of adieu, the escape vehicle was blasted with a missile fired from the helicopter as it left the scene with its captives and bags full of banknotes.

The pirates were brought to France and are now awaiting trial.

Bravo! You’ll say, before you lose interest in the story and reach for the remote control device in order to flick channels on your television set, on the lookout for something more entertaining than this 007 story which has already reached its happy end anyway.

Not so fast, dear reader, for things are never that easy in today’s Europe!

According to figures released by the International Maritime Bureau, the anti-piracy watchdog of the International Chamber of Commerce, over the past 10 years no less than 3,200 people have been taken hostage by sea pirates and at least 160 of them have lost their lives in hijacking incidents akin to Le Ponant. The shipping lanes of the Gulf of Aden are infested today with pirates armed with Kalashnikovs, rocket-propelled grenade throwers and high-speed boats equipped with global positioning systems. Ship-jacking, it seems, is a lot easier than robbing a bank — and a lot more lucrative!

So, while French legal experts are preparing their case against the captured Somali pirates prior to producing them before a judge, French diplomats are simultaneously lobbying at the United Nations Security Council for a mutually agreed international piracy law — currently non-existent. The British Royal Navy has been directed by the foreign office in London to keep away from the pirates as taking action against them or even arresting them would be ‘tantamount to a human rights violation’.

For that matter, only two weeks before the French operation to seek the release of Le Ponant hostages was set into action, Somali pirates had agreed to the return of the British crew of a vessel following 47 days in captivity after a payment of $700,000.

“The British attitude has come a long way,” laments John S. Burnett, author of Dangerous Waters: Modern Piracy & Terror on High Seas. “since the days when pirates were chained to pilings at Wapping and left there until the tidal water of the Thames ebbed and flowed over the bodies three times. So much for Britannia ruling the waves!”

You can say that again, John!

In France itself, the 007 euphoria is sure to ebb sooner or later. To come back to the Neuilly school incident, the parents of the children had heaved a predictably audible sigh of relief. However, some human rights groups had not wasted time in lashing out against the special forces gendarme, who had lodged a single bullet between the eyes of the hostage-taker who was in the process of making a move to grab the deadly dynamite switch.

To prove the point of the humanitarians, the very self-righteous International Herald Tribune recently published a cartoon showing a Somali citizen screaming at the distant French navy ships, “Fight against piracy? How about fight against poverty?”

The writer is a journalist based in Paris.

THE present energy crisis, almost a year old now, has truly made the nation its hostage. Unprecedented in the history of Pakistan, not only is it intense but also costly. Yet the most crucial and alarming dimension of the crisis is its propensity to undermine national sovereignty.

The national sovereignty of Pakistan requires the country to look after the interests of its people first and foremost and to manage resources within its territorial borders any way they see fit. The situation is alarming on both fronts. Pakistan faces energy security challenges not only because of internal supply disruptions but also due to its dependence on energy imports. The recent wave of internal security concerns emerged on Jan 11, 2005, when the production of gas from Sui was completely suspended due to the sabotage of gas installations.

Three years have passed but hardly a month goes by without an incident of sabotage, though on a much smaller scale now. The dependence on imports to meet nearly 30 per cent of energy and more than 80 per cent of oil requirements also places serious question marks against the national sovereignty and decision-making autonomy of the country in the international scene.

In view of the global geopolitical and military conflicts — which are mainly in the oil-rich regions of the world — international energy markets have become extremely volatile. Several other factors such as the frequent and intense occurrence of natural catastrophes (driven by global-warming) and sabotage threats have also added to the instability of the international energy scenario.

The implications of the energy crisis for the socio-economic wellbeing of the masses are devastating. All sectors including household, industry, trade and commerce, agriculture, education and health are at the suffering end. Lengthy, infuriating and unpredictable electricity breakdowns have driven the entire country into chaos. Despite having paid their taxes and utility bills, people are still being made to live with load-shedding that gives them sleepless nights and disturbs their daily routine. The anxiety level of conscientious citizens is hitting the threshold.

With life made too difficult for them to survive, a large number of industries, especially small and medium enterprises are left with no choice but to halt operations. This is where the worst impacts are being felt as tens of thousands of poor workers have been deprived of their only source of income.

A stage has been reached where the crisis is all set to exacerbate in the days ahead. With every passing day, the energy scene of the country comes across new shockwaves. For example, in the last week of April, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority asked the government to further push up fuel prices, the fourth increase in recent months, resulting in an overall 30 to 35 per cent rise in fuel prices since the elections in February.

The Karachi Electric Supply Corporation has also announced a 15 per cent jump in electricity tariff. Bearing in mind that crude oil prices have overshot the $120 per barrel mark, recording up to a 60 per cent increase over the last year, further fuel price shocks in Pakistan are expected.

Subsequently, there have been scenes of unrest across the country. Large demonstrations have been seen in many places including Quetta, Chaman, Attock and the tribal areas. Wapda offices have also come under attack.

The violent protest in Multan, in this regard, could be taken as a gauge of the intensity of the gathering storm. Some may overlook these incidents regarding them as acts of temperamental individuals, yet these are manifestations of the frustration that the common man is experiencing.

Here it is worth citing an incident in Bangladesh on April 29. At least 50 people were injured during a violent protest in Dhaka as police clashed with students protesting against an increase in bus fare because of a jump in the cost of fuel. Police had to use force to disperse stone-throwing students near Dhaka University.

Pakistan with an already volatile internal situation on a number of fronts, cannot afford to add to the complexity of the problem in view of the energy-related unrest amongst the masses.

The fact has also been appreciated in recent studies conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the International Energy Agency, concluding that in the emerging scenarios, those at the top of the economic ladder would be able to procure the basic necessities of life. On the other hand, those at the lower end would find themselves increasingly barred from access to such vital commodities as food, land and shelter. As supplies contract and the price of many materials rises, the poor will find themselves in an increasingly desperate situation.

It is vital to understand that the trend of surging oil prices in the international market is irreversible. There is nothing the government can do on this front. Also, there is no quick mechanism of enhancing the electricity generation capacity. Consequently, in a business-as-usual scenario, there is every possibility that the energy crisis in the country would intensify in the coming days. This, in turn, can adversely affect national sovereignty.

The government, therefore, needs to double its efforts to overcome energy-related challenges. Besides making arrangements to deliver tangible relief, one of the most important things to do in this situation is to promote an environment of national understanding between the ruling elite and the masses.

The former in these difficult times would have to show solidarity with the common man by sharing his hardships. The officials will have to make people believe that they are truly aware of their sufferings and are doing their utmost to provide them relief.

Through meaningful dialogue, the key stakeholders of society i.e. representatives of civil society, industry, trade and commerce, and students need to be taken into confidence about the challenges. For the government, just muddling through is not an option any more as the situation can easily spin out of control and lead to a meltdown of the system.

The common man will be convinced if he sees the ruling elite exhibit pragmatism and sincerity and leading by example. With respect to the electricity crisis, to avoid unrest growing any further, until the gap between the demand and supply of power is met through capacity addition, the available lot of energy should be used wisely and productively through energy conservation and management. For example, the multi-gigawatt electricity that goes into air-conditioning could be diverted to industry so that it could sustain and continue contributing to the socio-economic growth of the country. n

The writer is a lecturer in renewable energy at the Glasgow Caledonian University, UK.

dr.m.asif@gmail.com

LAST February, as millions of fascinated viewers watched on TV, Russia’s new leaders, 55-year old Vladimir Putin and 42-year old Dimitri Medvedev, showcased their new duumvirate by confidently strolling from the Kremlin across Red Square to attend a concert of the rock band, Deep Purple. Forget ‘Swan Lake.’

Decked out in hip black leather jackets and tailored jeans, they symbolized the new, youthful, self-assured Russia of 2008. The grey homburg hats and dumpy, ill-fitting suits of the Communist era were a thing of the past.

This week, Dimitri Medvedev, Putin’s long-time protégé and hand-picked successor, was inaugurated president of Russia. Putin, who heads the United Russia Party, the nation’s largest, became prime minister. Just to remind everyone that in spite of the rock concerts and cool hair cuts, Russia remains a warrior nation with a glorious military tradition, the Kremlin also staged the biggest military parade since 1990.

Impressive, certainly, but the whole world was asking, ‘who’s the boss of Russia?’

Good question. My view: Putin, who laments the Soviet Union’s collapse as the ‘greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,’ may be replicating the old USSR’s power structure.

The Soviet Union had two parallel governments. A civilian one, with a president, legislature, and ministers; and a mirror structure run by the Communist Party. Real power was held by the Party’s General Secretary and Politburo who made all important policy decisions, and the security organs. The civilian government was charged with implementing them.

We can envisage a similar dual arrangement in Moscow wherein Putin fills the role of the old Soviet General Secretary and Medvedev that of Soviet presidents. The business-minded Medvedev is former head of Gazprom, Russia’s giant energy firm. He will likely become the nation’s energy czar and focus on economic development and raising living standards. Putin, formerly of KGB’s elite First Directorate, will focus on foreign policy and rebuilding Russia’s military and diplomatic power.

Theoretically, their roles should be reversed, with the president handling security policy and the prime minister domestic issues. But it’s hard to imagine former spy chief Putin digging through farm reports and industrial statistics.

Vladi and Dimi, as they are known, are sitting on a bonanza. Russia has 20 per cent of the world’s natural gas reserves, and at least seven per cent of proven oil reserves, some 75 billion barrels. However, Russia’s huge reserves are in remote regions and will require vast investment to further exploit. Even so, as energy prices soar, Russia grows wealthier and more powerful by the day, a sort of Saudi Arabia with snow.

Interestingly, Russia today commands far more influence over western Europe than it did when 100 Red Army divisions threatened the continent to the point where France actually began re-arming the Maginot forts.

Russia’s Gazprom now account for nearly 40 per cent of Germany and Ukraine’s gas consumption, 33 per cent of Italy’s, 26 per cent of France’s heating needs, 70 per cent of Austria’s, and almost all of Eastern Europe’s gas. Moscow does not need tanks to threaten or influence Europe. If the Kremlin turns off the gas export tap, as it recently did to late-paying Ukraine, Europeans will shiver in the winter cold.

Washington is deeply alarmed by Russia’s growing energy clout. Until recently, the US controlled much of world energy through its domination of the Mideast. Now, Russia is challenging America’s Oil Raj and Washington is struggling to develop new pipeline routes to circumvent Russia’s fast expanding pipeline network.

Prime Minister Putin can look back on his eight-year presidency with satisfaction. He mercilessly crushed the life out of the Chechen independence struggle, as he promised. Thanks to high energy prices, in part caused by the US invasion of Iraq, he doubled Russia’s national income, restored pensions, and restored national pride. He thwarted the Clinton administration’s attempts to establish political and economic US tutelage of post-Soviet Russia, and pulled Russia out of bankruptcy.

Putin and Medvedev must continue dealing with Washington’s violation of secret, 1990-1991 agreements with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev not to advance Nato any further east in exchange for Moscow freeing Eastern Europe.

In spite of Putin’s crushing democratic government and free expression, his approval ratings run over 60 per cent. If Putin and Medvedev can avoid falling out, and continue fruitful teamwork, they are well placed to restore Russia as a global power and turn this long-suffering nation into tomorrow’s economic success story. — Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2008