Foreign policy priorities

THE Senate’s debate on foreign policy comes against a background of general discontent in the nation over Islamabad’s conduct of our external relations. Several factors have combined to focus the people’s attention on foreign policy. The people feel that Islamabad’s role in the US-led war on terror is not in Pakistan’s interests, given the high incidence of suicide bombings and the unbroken military power of the Taliban. Irresponsible statements from America also have not helped matters. Not only the presidential hopefuls but also some senior Bush administration officials talked of going into Fata if there was ‘actionable intelligence’. However, what has led to the chorus for a reassessment of our foreign policy priorities is the induction of a democratic government in Islamabad. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi correctly reminded the Senate that no foreign policy could undergo a change overnight. While he defended Pakistan’s American alliance, the foreign minister said it was time for a ‘look-East’ policy. The statement is pregnant with possibilities.

Since 9/11, America has come to Pakistan once again in a big way. Earlier, it walked away twice. In the sixties, the special relationship between Pakistan and the US virtually came to an end after the 1965 war with India. Again, America abandoned Pakistan when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan. The people are, thus, justified in wondering whether Washington will repeat its performance if and when it chooses to do so. The point to note is that overdependence on the US does not serve Pakistan’s interests. At the same time, a look-East policy is not incompatible with a warm and mutually fruitful relationship with America. What commonsense suggests is a broadening of Pakistan’s relations with other, equally important, players on the global stage.

Pakistan’s special ties with China have been of immense value because of the consistency in their relationship and a shared outlook on a number of major issues. Of late, the two sides have been paying greater attention to the economic side of their ties, and cooperation in the energy, trade and communications sectors has been constantly deepening. Side by side Islamabad has done well not to succumb to American pressure on its Iran policy, and the gas pipeline project is forging ahead. India has also finally decided to be part of it, and this should serve to strengthen the normalisation process and help in the search for a peaceful solution to the Kashmir issue. Regretfully, relations with Moscow have not achieved the importance they deserve. Russia is in transition, and it is a matter of time before it resumes its historic role in world affairs.

Tax and tears

FINANCE Minister Ishaq Dar has promised to introduce ‘progressive’ taxation in the country through the upcoming finance bill. If what he meant was that the incidence of taxation would be shifted from indirect taxes to taxes on income, nothing could be more encouraging. The system of taxation in vogue currently is regressive in nature since the poor have to bear the brunt of the tax burden on account of the high indirect taxes — mainly the General Sales Tax (GST) that constitutes 79 per cent of the total tax collection. The worrisome aspect is Pakistan’s low tax to GDP ratio which, at about 10 per cent, is about the lowest in Asia. Unless this ratio is improved it would be difficult to achieve economic growth, cut down on the import bill and bridge the current account deficit.

But it would be unfair to saddle the 1.6m people who are currently paying income tax with a heavier burden. What is required is a broadening of the tax base so that more income earners are brought into the tax net. Where in the world is income tax imposed on only one per cent of the population? Our taxation system is heavily skewed against individuals and sectors already under the net. The corporate sector is paying tax on its pre-tax profit at 35 per cent, irrespective of the increase or decrease in its profitability in any year. The taxman takes a bigger bite, where the individual taxpayer is able to improve his income. But the services sector is able to get away without parting with much of its income. As for the agricultural sector it has long been debated if it should pay taxes. The finance minister sidestepped the question when asked about it. Without opening up a debate on that front, suffice it to say that the rule ought to be that income earned from whatever source should be equitably taxed. Mr Ishaq Dar has said that “his calculations showed that the rich contributed much less in taxation”. Was he possibly alluding to the imposition of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on such sectors that are assumed to have generated great amounts of wealth, such as the stock and property market? That perception is widely shared by the public. But while finalising tax proposals for the upcoming budget in June, it would be best to take all stakeholders on board. He who would have to pay more will naturally feel the pinch. So be it, for who has ever heard of tax without tears?

Maternal mortality

IT was depressing to be reminded by two international agencies based in Islamabad of our persistently poor record on maternal health, and that too a couple of days before Mother’s Day. Despite our renewed commitment in 2000 to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015, one of which is to improve maternal health, the maternal mortality rate in Pakistan is still appalling. Nearly 68 women die from pregnancy-related problems everyday in our country, while our maternal mortality ratio is 500 deaths per 100,000 live births, as compared to 24 in Europe. We are also ranked 69th out of 71 less developed countries on the maternal and child wellbeing index, and one in every 74 women in Pakistan dies as a result of pregnancy complications, as compared to one in 7,300 in developed countries. Needless to say, such high levels of maternal mortality are reflective of unavailable, inaccessible or poor quality healthcare, especially with respect to trained health workers, particularly in the underserved districts of the country. This is why only 36 per cent of mothers here deliver their babies with the assistance of a trained or skilled attendant. At this rate, we will not be able to meet the MDG target of reducing the maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters by 2015, unless we turn our words and promises into resources and action, put maternal health on top of the national health agenda and support women’s right to reproductive health.

Action will have to include not only increasing access to skilled attendants at birth and improving referrals to emergency obstetric care when needed, but also enhancing access to family planning which would reduce the risk of death for women who want to delay or stop childbearing. The role of socio-cultural factors in maternal mortality also needs to be addressed. Even when healthcare resources are available, why many women still choose the riskier, home-based unskilled care for deliveries is due to a number of constraints like family taboos, lack of education, poverty, distance from the healthcare facility, transport problems, etc. In education, we not only need to improve literacy among women but also focus on community education, particularly targeting men to improve their consciousness about women’s rights to health. Progress on maternal health is important because it will also mean fewer deaths and better lives for our children.

OTHER VOICES - North American Press

Gambling is never enough

The New York Times

LIKE a gambling addict certain that his luck will turn on the next roll of the dice, New York State is betting that vastly expanding gambling at the Aqueduct in Queens is part of the answer to the budget deficit. The state’s overly generous revenue projection is based on the hope that bidders will pay $250m for development rights from the state-owned racetrack, and with it, the right to add 4,500 video slot machines that would provide the state a worry-free revenue stream.It is never that simple. Video lottery terminals are similar to slot machines except for a few details that, taken together, provide enough of a fig leaf to make the machines legal under the state constitution. They are addicting all the same to a minority of players …

If the state goes through with its plans, the people who would experience the brunt of those difficulties are the residents of Queens. Problem gambling doubles within 10 miles of a gambling facility … This means thousands of people who do not currently have a gambling addiction would, in all probability, get hooked …

Gambling is an awful way to fill a hole in the budget. There are already more than 12,000 video lottery terminals in eight facilities across New York. No matter how much the state rakes in from gambling, it never seems to prevent budget deficits. This year is no different. The state would be better off finding a source of revenue that doesn’t prey upon its own people. — (May 10)

Bad for our health

San Francisco Chronicle

GIVEN the overwhelming — and frequently adverse — influence of drug advertising on our nation’s medication rates and drug prescription bills, it makes absolutely no sense that the Food and Drug Administration would change the rules to offer drug companies new ways to publicise their products. But that’s exactly what it’s doing.

We’re not talking about a new billboard campaign, either. Drug companies are hoping that the FDA will allow them to give doctors copies of scientific reviews and studies — which have traditionally been viewed as rigorous and impartial — that endorse ‘experimental’, or off-label, uses of their drugs.

Off-label drug use is … inherently riskier, since the drugs have not been subjected to comprehensive clinical trials for the condition for which they’ve been prescribed. This is where a doctor’s guidance is crucial…

Doctors have already recognised the danger in allowing the FDA to relax the rules: doing so would undermine their own credibility and their ability to trust each others’ work… The stakes for patients are even higher: After all, they’re the ones putting their health on the line. Easing these restrictions could lead to unnecessary or even dangerous prescriptions for patients — and would erode trust between doctors and patients who knew about the new rules. These risks are too large to take. The FDA must resist industry grandstanding and put the needs of patients first. — (May 9)

Obama: close to nomination

DURING the weeks preceding the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6, Senator Barack Obama’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination seemed to be floundering.

In the wake of his defeat in Pennsylvania, questions were being raised about whether he could win against the Republican nominee John McCain, whether he was tough enough to endure the rigours of the presidency or could draw the support of working class white voters who were sceptical of his patriotism.

The candidate himself looked exhausted, appearing less than self-assured in various television appearances. Some political commentators thought that he had been irreparably damaged by his past association with his firebrand former pastor in Chicago, Jeremiah Wright.

However, it all changed unceremoniously on May 6 when, exceeding all predictions, Obama overwhelmed Clinton with a 14 percentage points lead in North Carolina, while losing to her in Indiana by only a narrow margin. He has now amassed an impressive lead in pledged delegates, which is virtually insurmountable. Although the final numbers are likely to change, Obama has 1,847 pledged delegates as opposed to Clinton’s 1,686; a total of 2,025 delegates are required to win the party’s nomination. Obama needs fewer than 200 delegates to reach this magic number. There are only six remaining states where primaries are yet to take place, but none of them is rich in delegates. Even if Clinton received a lion’s share of their delegates, it still would not alter the final outcome.

In his victory speech, following the elections in North Carolina, Obama, brimming with new-found confidence and poise, redirected his sights to the upcoming contest with Senator McCain in November. He was gracious to Hillary Clinton and had only complimentary words for her, praising her tenacity and resilience. He will need all her support and goodwill in November’s general elections. Two days later, he made a triumphant visit to the US Congress, to be greeted by his Senate colleagues as the veritable nominee.

Clinton, however, is not yet ready to concede. Unfazed by a barrage of newspaper editorials and political commentaries that are pronouncing her quest for nomination as over, she has vowed that she will stay in the race until the end.

Nevertheless, the indicators are not encouraging. There are reports that her campaign is running out of money, and that she has had to loan more than $10m of her own money to keep it afloat. Realistically, it is difficult to see how she can resist for long the mounting pressure from Democratic Party leaders, urging her to withdraw in the interest of party unity, so as not to imperil the chances of success in the November election.

Regardless, Clinton and her staff are pursuing some new strategies, pinning their hopes on the results of two disputed elections in Florida and Michigan, where she won a majority. Both states were disqualified from sending their delegates to the Democratic Convention for violating the party rules about the dates they set for their primaries.

Initially, both candidates agreed to refrain from campaigning in either state. Lately, Clinton has been arguing for the legitimisation of delegates from both states which, if accepted, would put her in an advantageous position. In addition, she is attempting to enlist the support of the Super Delegates, a cohort of voters who are accorded this status by virtue of the political offices they hold, such as members of Congress and state governors. Some 270 of them are still uncommitted.

Unlike the Democrats, the Republican contest has been much more sedate. In early March, Senator John McCain vanquished his opponents, securing a commanding lead in the number of delegates, thus becoming the presumed nominee of his party.

Neither his age — he is 71 years old — his reputed fiery temper nor press reports of his alleged political favours to a female lobbyist, nor his embracing of many unpopular Bush policies seem to have placed him at a disadvantage. Meanwhile, he has been spending time raising money, preparing himself for the final match against the Democratic nominee.

From now until Nov 4, Obama has to overcome a number of obstacles. Clinton’s unremitting and withering attacks during the campaign may not be the only problem. The media continues to assail him for his past association with church pastor, Jeremiah Wright. The cleric has achieved undeserved fame for his vitriolic anti-American Sunday sermons which were widely disseminated on the internet. Obama initially dissociated himself from this toxic rhetoric, and was later forced to renounce both Wright and his comments.

An unrepentant Wright, capitalising on his new-found fame, eagerly appeared on various TV talk shows and lecture circuits in Washington recently, reminding the public of his past nexus to Obama. While the issue seemingly did not have a major impact on the last two primaries, it is bound to resurface in November.

Potentially more damaging than Obama’s past association with Wright, is the recent emergence of some ominous voting trends which might spell trouble for him if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

There seems to be a developing split of voters across racial lines, something that was not evident in earlier contests when Obama had rooted his candidacy in the transcendent theme of national cohesion. While drawing increasingly large majorities from African-Americans, Obama has been losing support of the white working class voters, especially those with lower incomes and level of education. Educated at Columbia University and Harvard Law School, he has been painted by his opponents as an elitist, remote from the concerns of ordinary Americans.

While the country is faced with problems such as an economic slump, the war in Iraq and a severe energy crisis, it is hard to imagine that people would vote for a Republican candidate again. However, presidential elections in America have often been decided based on the personalities of the contestants rather than party manifestos.

In order to become the first African-American president, Barack Obama will have to persuade the electorate to overcome their hidden racial and ethnic prejudices. Incredibly, a small, uninformed minority in this country continue to believe that he is a Muslim.

Charity begins at home

ADDRESSING a ceremony at the Bahauddin Zakaria University on May 4, Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani announced the setting up of a new medical college and a foreign engineering college in affiliation with the university.

This was quite expected as Multan is the birthplace of the prime minister and is renowned for having been the centre of scholarship in philosophy, literature and mysticism for a good part of the contemporary history of South Asia.

The prime minister also distributed a large number of cheques amounting to Rs90m from the state Baitul Maal for the welfare of the needy in health, education and small businesses. He also announced a mega development package for Multan and approved a grant of one million rupees for the Lawyers’ Welfare Trust. All this is good news for the people of Multan. As for the rest of the country, this generosity shown by the prime minister for the people of Multan gives rise to a number of assumptions which may or may not be correct but need serious reflection nevertheless.

First, this course of action is no different from what has been happening in Pakistan since independence. Leaders come and make big announcements to keep the goodwill of the people who elect them. Almost all the previous leaders of our country, including non-elected public figures, have followed this political tradition faithfully. Instead of building on the projects initiated by its predecessor, a new government comes up with its own projects. Sometimes, old projects are abandoned if their association with the new rulers is hard to establish. It does not matter if these are halfway into completion.

Having set this precedent, the prime minister has raised the expectation of other impoverished regions. They are now eagerly awaiting his arrival to give out Baitul Maal cheques worth millions of rupees to the poor and needy in their areas.

Second, it is a reflection of how a feudal mind works when it is in a giving mood. A feudal lord can be as generous as he can be ruthless. If his servants show total loyalty to the feudal lord, they deserve the best treatment from their master. In the absence of a state-managed social welfare system, this is a blessing in disguise. However, we have seen how a social welfare system of sorts operated by the madressahs for providing free education to poor children has backfired on society and is crying out for reform.

Although there is a lot to write in favour of the feudal system in an impoverished society, there is a fundamental difference between personal and state expenditure. The feudal lord does not mind if the largesse he is distributing comes from his own pocket. However, with the politician, the problem is that such largesse is not a burden on his purse because it is paid from the taxpayers’ money.

Third, it shows that perhaps the new government is so efficient that in just over a month it has come up with development plans for all parts of the country. Thus the mega project announced for Multan is the beginning of a great development era for the rest of the country. But this seems too good a performance by our civil service to be believed. The more plausible explanation is that the government has no planning process in place and is relying, as usual, on the whims of the elected leaders to show the way in setting up ad hoc priorities without any planning process.

Fourth, it shows that the prime minister has chosen to care for Multan first before any other region or province. In mature democracies, prime ministers preside over a fairly complex and sophisticated planning process for economic and social development but do not travel far and wide to announce the details of such projects in the country, let alone their home constituency. The government machinery is there to implement plans. In due course people can see for themselves what their leaders have done for them and where they have fallen short on their electoral promises.

Finally, we are back to square one on the question of institutions taking precedence over individuals. It is not any particular president or prime minister the people of Pakistan need to remember as their hero, but the institutions that represent them. It is ironic that whenever there is a new project to be launched, it is always associated with the personal initiative of the president or prime minister in office.

This gives rise to a false sense of the leaders’ infallibility. When their term comes to an end, they try to hang on to power in the mistaken belief that if they went, the country would go downhill with them. The prime minister should not fall prey to this well-rehearsed tradition, otherwise five years later, he will start seeing himself as irreplaceable — a familiar spectacle repeatedly witnessed in Pakistan and in other developing countries.

The fact is that giving out small amounts of money on high-level visits cannot change the lot of the poor. If our politicians are sincere about reducing poverty, they need to focus on development projects in rural areas which are self-sustainable and use local resources to add value to the GDP of the country. In many developing countries, governments have lost elections on this important matter — because the electorate did not benefit from their grand policies which had little relevance to the people and their needs.

In Pakistan, very often civil servants have been chasing tall promises made by politicians in different provinces and constituencies. That way the treasury is never able to keep pace with the ad hoc expenditure incurred to fulfill unimaginative pledges, with the result that the rupee has to be devalued to make up for the shortfall of liquidity.

In a democracy, it is very difficult to cut jobs, administrative expenses and welfare schemes in order to find money for development projects. This funding should be part of a well-prepared development plan arrived at after extensive public consultation with all key stakeholders.

The immediate need is to keep the economy running in full steam so that jobs are created and those households which are standing on the threshold of poverty are drawn back into the expanding middle class. With the celebrations of an astounding popular victory coming to an end, let the hard work of rebuilding the economy begin with less impulse and more think-tanking.

The writer is chief executive of Commonwealth Consulting and Risk Analysis Ltd in the UK.

sharfuddin@commonwealthconnsultants.co.uk