March 07, 2008	Friday	Safar 28, 1429

MOSCOW: When Dmitry Medvedev is inaugurated as Russia’s president on May 7, he will formally inherit the considerable powers of the office as spelled out in the constitution.

But some experts predict he will serve a lengthy apprenticeship before actually using those powers, while others wonder if he will ever use them at all.

As Medvedev prepares to become president, President Vladimir Putin is getting ready to become Medvedev’s prime minister. And while the Russian constitution provides for a strong president and a weak prime minister, observers say Putin, by far the dominant figure in Russia’s political landscape, may not settle for the subordinate role.

At a February press conference, Putin said he would not put Medvedev’s photograph on the wall of his new office — a traditional sign of loyalty. “In order to build relations with Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev, if he is elected president, I do not have to hang his portraits,” Putin said.

Under Russia’s constitution, the president sets domestic and foreign policy, serves as commander of the armed forces, appoints the prime minister, presides over government meetings, supervises the intelligence and police agencies, and nominates top prosecutors and members of the constitutional court.

The prime minister serves more of an administrative role, nominating members of the Cabinet and making sure the ministers implement domestic, foreign, fiscal and monetary policy.

But Putin has suggested he will take a broad view of his duties as prime minister, saying at his annual press conference Feb 14 that he would be “in charge of ... creating the conditions for ensuring our country’s defence and security.”

Few believe that parliament will alter the constitution to redistribute power, but that hasn’t been necessary in the past to strengthen the prime minister’s role.

Just a month after President Boris Yeltsin appointed Putin as prime minister in August 1999, Putin launched the second Chechen war. He was thought to be in control of Russia even before Yeltsin resigned on Dec 31, 1999 and Putin became acting president.

Putin recently described the boundaries between the office of the Russian president and that of the prime minister as elastic.

“There are enough powers to go around and Dmitry Anatolyevich (Medvedev) and I will divide them between ourselves and build up our personal relations, if the voters give us such a chance,” he said at his press conference. “I can assure you that there will be no problems in this respect.”

Neither would an informal sharing of power be unprecedented in Western democracies.

Although the US constitution gives the vice president no official duties other than presiding over the Senate, Vice President Dick Cheney by many accounts has played a highly active and influential role in the administration of President George Bush.

Sergei Markov, a policy analyst with close ties to the Kremlin, predicted that Medvedev will not act independently but look to Putin for guidance, at least at first.

“The tandem will last a long time, and it will not be about two centers of power but just one, controlled by Putin,” Markov said. “Their roles have been scripted beforehand.”

Putin may eventually cede to Medvedev the top role in the Russian leadership hierarchy, Markov said. But to claim power in his own right, the analyst added, Medvedev may have to prove himself by tackling an important problem.

“It depends on whether Medvedev will score his own feat of arms, like fighting corruption,” he said.

Andrei Piontkovsky, executive director of the Strategic Studies Center in Moscow, predicted that Putin will never relinquish power voluntarily. He cited reports — which Putin has categorically denied — that the outgoing Russian president has amassed a fortune during his term in office.

Piontkovsky said if Putin loses control, he and others who allegedly grew rich during their tenure in the Kremlin could be called to account. “He is hostage to his own wealth, as are all of these gentlemen who rule Russia,” said Piontkovsky.

Hours after his election, Medvedev told reporters he was committed to ruling in partnership with Putin — though he suggested he regarded himself as the senior partner. “The president defines Russia’s foreign policy according to the constitution,” Medvedev said.

Piontkovsky said Putin and Medvedev are on a collision course. “Inevitably the construction of two czars is unstable,” he said.

Dmitry Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center believes the Medvedev-Putin administration could work smoothly, with Putin serving in the short-term as a “regent-cum-mentor-cum-tutor,” giving Medvedev on-the-job training.

Neither does he think that Medvedev needs to imitate Putin in order to be a successful president.

“Where Putin was in some ways a man of war, the new guy is more of a man of peace,” Trenin said. “Putin had to fight against those snakes and dragons in the marshes of Chechnya and the oligarchy.”

The analyst said Medvedev’s challenges — which include restoring the independence of the courts, parliament and political parties, all brought to heel by Putin’s Kremlin — may take a different form of leadership.—AP