THE Feb 18 elections have surprised both the victors and the vanquished. Those who had planned to engineer the rigging have been surprised by the unexpectedly high turn-out of the voters and the activism of those who wanted to prove that democracy can work in this country.

Those who had accepted the fait accompli of a rigged election, which the statements attributed to the President and the Attorney General on the eve of election had reinforced, have been surprised by the establishment’s inability to do so.

The surprising thing about the election was not the absence of overt rigging on the polling day (in contrast to the existence of pervasive pre-poll rigging), but that the rigging could not achieve the desired results. In places where the countervailing forces of high turn-out and sufficient vigilance by the opposition candidates and their agents, along with that of display of armed strength and presence of some conscientious officials, were not in evidence, rigging did achieve the desired results, especially in Karachi and Balochistan.

Thus the impression being created that the Musharraf establishment has held a free, fair and peaceful election, comparable to the 1970 election, is erroneous. The real credit for making these elections credible goes to the ordinary voter, who despite all the hurdles created in his (especially her) way gave a loud and clear message for the change of a regime which had amply demonstrated its indifference, insensitivity and ineptness in solving the growing problems accumulated over the past eight years.

By remaining in denial and perpetuating its tenure with the myth that there was no alternative and that the country was not ready for democracy, except for the praetorian kind, its popularity graph kept plunging to an extent that its narcissist instincts refused to recognise the real-life image painted by a politically alive media and civil society, as well as the pollsters. Its uncontrollable impulse to exercise power severely damaged all institutions, which were stuffed with military cronies and shorn of their autonomy and independence. It wreaked its vengeance on the lawyers and the judiciary, who were the first to challenge its authoritarianism and dared to call the uniformed emperor legally naked.

Preoccupied as it perennially remained with the task of clinging to power and obliging its charmed circle of beneficiaries, it forgot to give attention to the basic imperatives of good governance. Rolling in the largesse received from the US and its allies for its services in the war on terror and as a bonus for becoming ‘a major non-Nato ally’, the government indulged in irresponsible macroeconomic management by artificially promoting economic growth, without caring about its consequences for poverty and income inequality.

Its economic managers blindly followed their bosses in the political arena through misinformation and deliberate recourse to doctoring statistical data to create a false aura of prosperity, which boomeranged on them, much the same way the BJP’s shining India campaign did in the 2004 Indian elections. In the case of Pakistan, the reality of sharp hikes in the prices of flour, ‘ghee’, sugar and rice and other commodities of daily use exposed the hollowness of the Musharraf-Aziz-Elahi economic miracle.

It failed to invest sufficiently in public infrastructure, both physical and social, creating shortages and inflationary pressures on the supply of essential utilities and services. The regime’s legacy of a large fiscal and external deficit, heavy borrowing from the central bank, rising inflation, falling growth rate and rising poverty is a challenge that the succeeding economic managers will find difficult to deal with.

Despite its humiliating defeat, the Musharraf establishment is playing a rear-guard action to keep itself entrenched and to reverse the overwhelming verdict against its policies and protagonists, especially the retired General himself. A saner or more self-respecting man would have seen the writing on the wall a long time back and would have resigned honorably.

Even the most dyed-in-the-wool military stalwarts and his erstwhile seniors have advised him to give up the totally illegitimate path he has pursued since coming to power, but he has persisted in indulging in the worst kind of political brinkmanship, in the hope of deferring his day of reckoning which now stares him in the face.

Until now, he had been strongly supported by the United States in the belief that his services as its most important foot soldier in the war on terror were indispensable. However, although its position remains ambivalent, the US could soon decide to dispense with him. If it fails in this effort, the US could risk losing them both.

Musharraf’s unseemly reluctance to leave his office, which he is occupying without legitimacy, can only prolong the agony that the country has been experiencing for almost a year. If he continues to pursue the path of confrontation and tries to stage yet another coup (with the help of his legal magicians), he could well drag the country into a kind of strife seen in Kenya recently.

The country would heave a sigh of relief if and when he calls it a day. He still has time to redeem his record and be remembered as the country’s last military ruler and one who at the end of the day kept his promise of adhering to his motto of ‘Pakistan First’.

It is a matter of gratification that the three major parties of the country have at last decided to join hands on the road to democracy which has been paved with the flesh and blood of Benazir Bhutto and hundreds of those who laid down their lives in the past few months. Their agreement on major issues, including the restoration of the judiciary and the investigation of Benazir’s murder by the UN, should provide a foundation for forming a national government capable of clearing the wreckage of political cataclysm and social fissures left behind by the regime.

While the details of the agreements arrived at are yet to be worked out and there may yet be many a slip between the cup and lip, the nation can hope to turn a new leaf in its history. It may indeed be a blessing in disguise that the struggle for regaining the space for democracy and displacing a military regime has been so prolonged this time and has not come as a fortuitous result of an aerial disaster or a dramatic surrender to a foreign army, but through the combined efforts of political parties, the civil society and the awakening and awareness of common citizens.

While serious doubts remain about the ability of those elected not to repeat the colossal mistakes they made when they were in power before, the heightened public awareness and the restoration of their faith in the power to vote, should serve as a guarantee that they will at least minimise the egregious behaviour of the past.

syed.naseem@gmail.com