Will Pakistan’s democracy be durable?
By Shadaba Islam
AS Pakistan’s victorious political parties focus on forging a durable ruling alliance, European Union policymakers are turning their attention to an equally gruelling task: working out ways of consolidating democracy and ensuring stability in the country.
Developments in Pakistan have dominated the news in Europe for most of the week, with newspapers and broadcasters focusing on both the immediate and long-term fall-out of the vote. Belgium’s national radio interviewed this correspondent early on Tuesday morning for a detailed half-hour analysis of the election results, their impact on the future of the country, prospects for the political survival of President Pervez Musharraf and Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan.
Europeans’ interest in Pakistan is not surprising. Analysts of all stripes and colours have focused on the country’s geopolitical importance and its pivotal role in the fight against religious extremism and terrorism. NATO’s massive presence in Afghanistan and its struggle against the Taliban has further drawn attention to Pakistan’s links – past and present – with Afghan insurgents.For once, Pakistan is a good news story. And everyone appears to be celebrating. After a year of reading and watching reports of turmoil and tragedy in Pakistan, there’s a palpable sense of relief in Europe at the exciting new direction that could be taken by the country.
While there is also concern that Pakistan could – once again – take the wrong road, for many analysts and officials, the polls provide much-needed proof that given the opportunity, people in Pakistan vote in a sensible and intelligent manner, choosing democracy and moderation over army rule and religious extremism.
As such, the most encouraging feature of the elections from the European point of view is the success of the mainstream secular political parties and the virtual obliteration of Islamists, suspected of close links with the Taliban.
Like their counterparts in the US, officials in the EU, alarmed at the outreach of Pakistan’s religious extremist groups, are hoping that Pakistan’s new rulers can hammer out a more successful strategy for fighting terrorism and creeping Talibanisation than the unsuccessful stop-start attempts made by President Pervez Musharraf.
The tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto last year added to EU fears that Pakistan could fall under the control of extremists, a concern given further traction by the Pakistani leader during his tour of key European capitals in January.
Given their distrust of military leaders – even those who discard their uniform – EU officials are not losing sleep over the fate of the now-weakened president. Instead, the focus is on ensuring that future European strategy towards Pakistan is shaped by the policies of the country’s future leaders, rather than by their personalities.
Pakistan now has “an important opportunity to advance towards national unity and tackle the challenges that lie ahead”, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in comments made after the polls.
“Europe is committed to building a strong and stable relationship with the people of Pakistan,” Barroso underlined, adding, “We stand ready to work with the Pakistani authorities, political parties, civil society and other stakeholders to strengthen the rule of law and democratic institutions.”
EU action would also focus on improving the socio-economic conditions of the Pakistani people, Barroso underlined.
The EU’s commitment to Pakistan was illustrated most visibly by the bloc’s decision to deploy an independent Election Observation Mission (EOM), led by European Parliament member Michael Gahler, before and during the polls.
Gahler has described the election as “competitive despite significant problems”, including the lack of a “level playing field” because state agencies favoured the former ruling parties and people lacked confidence in the impartiality of the Election Commission (EC).
Despite the flaws, however, Gahler and Robert Evans, head of the European Parliament delegation to Pakistan, said the polls showed the Pakistani people’s strong desire for democracy and the rule of law.
“In response, we urge political parties to address the challenges,” underlined Evans.
The question being asked in Brussels and other EU capitals is whether given their past failures, the triumphant political parties and their leaders can respond effectively to popular demands for political change – but also for the implementation of successful economic policies and above all for good governance.
The role of the army under its new commander, General Ashfaq Kayani, remains an important question, with EU policymakers insisting that the Pakistani military will – and must – continue to play a key role in fighting extremism and curbing militancy.
But military action against terrorists must go hand-in-hand with political and socio-economic action to develop some of Pakistan’s most deprived regions, including the tribal areas.
Fighting extremism is only part of the battle for Pakistan’s future, however. The country’s new leaders must also zero in on an array of other priorities, including restoration of the independence of the judiciary, removing constraints on the media and ending the harassment of civil rights activists.
Inevitably, the new men – and hopefully women – in power in Islamabad will devote time and energy to forging a new relationship with the US. Ignoring the EU would be a mistake, however. The 27-nation bloc has many instruments in its tool box which could prove useful in Pakistan’s future modernisation drive.
First and foremost, the European Commission has built up years of know-how in reforming the economic, political and social infrastructure of former communist nations of Eastern Europe. Such expertise could come in useful to Pakistan.
European experience in modernising political parties and the EU focus on building strong and stable institutions could also prove invaluable to Pakistan’s future reformers.
European aid to Pakistan has so far focused on health, education and rural development. These sectors will continue to demand attention. But the EU must also be asked to move beyond traditional aid programmes to a broader platform of assistance to a country in desperate need of political, economic and social renewal.
The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels.

