ISLAMABAD, Feb 17: After going through a bloody campaign, Pakistan goes to polls on Monday amid hopes for a political change as well as fears of vote-rigging and violence that could bring more turmoil.

Opinion polls have tipped the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to lead an opposition majority in the general election against the former ruling coalition of Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and other loyalists of President Pervez Musharraf.

But the PML-led caretaker government has dismissed such adverse predictions by both local and foreign pollsters and analysts, whose assessments too are dependent on the degree of fairness of the vote for the National Assembly and four provincial assemblies in view of the controversial last election of 2002 that produced a civilian coalition that served for five years under Musharraf’s military presidency.

Most political analysts think the PPP will sweep its traditional power base of rural Sindh and do better than in 2002 in other provinces as well, amid a sympathy wave after the Dec 27 assassination of its leader Benazir Bhutto.

But the decisive battle will be fought in the most populous Punjab province, which has 148 general seats in the 342-seat National Assembly and where a resurgent PML-N, PPP and PML will make it a tough triangular contest.

Sindh, where PML-ally Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is likely to retain its dominance in urban centres of Karachi and Hyderabad, has 61 general seats in the National Assembly compared to 35 of the North West Frontier Province and 14 of Balochistan, where all parties could share the spoils, with a revived Awami National Party and the PPP making a better showing in the NWFP.

A possible humiliation, if not a Waterloo, awaits a now divided Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) alliance of Islamic parties, which had swept the NWFP and Balochistan in 2002 because of an anti-American wave after the US invasion of Afghanistan and President Musharraf’s policy to sideline the mainstream PPP and PML-N.

The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) have 12 seats, most of whose winners are likely to join the opposition ranks because of a prevailing anti-regime sentiment there due to anti-militant military operations.

A prolonged election campaign ended at midnight on Saturday after a suspected suicide bomb attack that killed 47 people at a PPP rally in Parachinar in the Kurram tribal area and some other bloody incidents renewed fears of more violence.

Monday’s polling will be held from 8am to 5pm at about 64,000 polling stations across the country for 268 of the 272 general seats of the National Assembly and 570 of the 577 general seats of the provincial assemblies which are up for grabs.

The elections in four constituencies of the National Assembly constituencies, including that of Benazir Bhutto in Sindh province, and seven of provincial assemblies have been postponed owing to the death of a candidate or law and order reasons.

A total of 221 reserved seats for women and non-Muslim minority communities in the National Assembly and the four provincial assemblies will be allocated to political parties after the polling results in proportion to general seats they won in each chamber in accordance with their preference lists already submitted to the Election Commission.

Sixty seats are reserved for women and 10 for non-Muslims in the National Assembly, 66 for women and eight for non-Muslims in the 371-seat Punjab assembly, 29 for women and nine for non-Muslims in the 168-seat Sindh assembly, 22 for women and three for non-Muslims in the NWFP assembly, and 11 for women and three for non-Muslims in the Balochistan assembly.

Although the government and the Election Commission have repeatedly rejected allegations of pre-poll and polling day rigging, the opposition parties complain the authorities had failed to address most of their complaints about the role played by the PML-dominated local governments and other government agencies to help the candidates of the formerly ruling coalition.

Originally the election was set for Jan 8 but was put off to Feb 18 after violent protests sparked by Ms Bhutto’s assassination which overshadowed the campaign as well as the manifestos of contesting political parties and a campaign for a boycott of the process by the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) alliance that draws its strength mainly from the Jamaat-i-Islami and some nationalist parties of Balochistan.

Turnout from about 82 million registered voters aged 18 and more will be a major factor in the election result as analysts say a low turnout, mainly because of the fear of violence and less by the boycott campaign, could benefit the PML by sparing it, to some extent, the anger of the general population over the latest inflation, food and energy shortages, last year’s crackdown against the superior judiciary and the media and President Musharraf’s emergency proclamation of Nov 3.

A higher turnout could benefit the populist PPP and PML-N, which had sought to attract the common people with promises of a total break with the recent years of army’s dominance in politics and subservience of parliament to an all-powerful presidency as well as general welfare of the population.

The PPP manifesto is centred on five Es — employment, energy, education, environment and equality and PML-N’s on a seven-letter acronym Restore, which stands for restoration of (pre-Nov 3) judiciary, democracy and the (pre-Oct 1999 coup) 1973 constitution, elimination of military’s rule in politics, security of life and property, tolerance, overall reconciliation, relief for the poor, and education and employment.

The five Ds of the PML, which seeks votes on the basis of its five years’ performance, stand for democracy, development, defence, devolution and diversity.

The PPP had polled the highest number of votes in the 2002 National Assembly election — 7,361,423 or 28.42 per cent of the total — but won only 80 seats compared to PML-Q’s 6,898,587 or 26.63 per cent that gave the party 118 seats because of the implications of the first-past-the post system. The PML-N then got only 18 seats from 12.71 per cent of votes while the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) alliance of six religious parties 59 seats from its 12.28 per cent votes and MQM 17 seats with just 3.55 per cent votes concentrated in urban Sindh.

Compared to nearly 58 per cent in Pakistan’s first direct general election for the National Assembly in 1970, the turnout in recent years has been much lower — 41.76 in 2002, 36.01 in 1997, 40.92 in 1993, 45.46 in 1990, 43.15 in 1988 and 53.69 in 1985 (party-less election).