February 18, 2008	Monday	Safar 10, 1429

KARACHI, Feb 17: Though things might turn out to be different in other parts of Pakistan on election day, the so-called ‘sympathy’ and ‘swing’ factors are not likely to have any major effect on the election dynamics of Karachi.

And what exactly are these factors? The sympathy factor is the term used to describe the possibility of the Pakistan People’s Party attracting otherwise unlikely voters moved by Benazir Bhutto’s Dec 27, 2007 assassination, while the swing factor indicates the prospect of voters turning away from members of the former ruling coalition due to the faltering law and order situation and spiralling inflation.

Dawn spoke to several citizens – voters, non-voters, academics, politicians – to gauge the mood of the metropolis on the eve of the elections. While those who planned to vote are doing so begrudgingly, others expressed their total lack of faith in the electoral process.

Politicians, on the other hand, expectedly tooted their own horns, yet one thing appeared quite clear: it is highly unlikely the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) will suffer much of a dent in its electoral fortunes in Karachi, a city the party considers its citadel of support.

Faisal Sabzwari, a former MQM MPA, expressed confidence that his party would cruise to an easy victory.

“Let’s be clear about one thing: Karachi has never been the PPP’s constituency. Even during the height of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s popularity, the PPP could only capture Lyari. If you look at the election results over the past decades, we have constantly triumphed in Karachi, apart from the 1993 elections, which we boycotted. So, all this talk of the ‘sympathy vote’ is unlikely to have any effect on Karachi,” he said.

However Waqar Mehdi, Deputy Information Secretary of the PPP in Sindh, begged to differ.

“The sympathy factor will have a major effect on Karachi’s voters. The situation has changed greatly since 2002. Ms Bhutto’s assassination has had a great effect on people, especially on women voters, even in the MQM’s strongholds such as (the former) Districts Central and East,” he said.

‘No free will in Karachi’

Mohammad Hussain Mehnati, former MNA and the Jamaat-i-Islami’s Karachi Amir, whose party is one of the major components of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) and is boycotting the polls, told Dawn that “the sympathy factor will not have much effect on Karachi. Perhaps in the interior of Sindh. Anyhow, voters don’t have any free will in Karachi to vote for candidates of their choice. There is only one-way traffic here. Certain elements will occupy the polling stations and stuff the ballot boxes.”

Mr Reza, a retired government servant in his 60s, said that he “would vote. But I don’t think the sympathy factor will affect Karachi much. Provided the polls are fair and transparent, maybe the PPP will garner three seats from Karachi, not much else.”

Mahrukh, a lady in her 20s who works in an advertising agency and also plans to vote, added that “Karachi is known for its support of the MQM. The MQM factor will ensure that support for the PPP in the city is limited.”

Dr Jaffer Ahmed of the University of Karachi’s Pakistan Study Centre, said that: “The sympathy factor will affect Karachi to an extent. It is not a homogenous city. Some constituencies are MQM strongholds; the four or five constituencies where the party is not that strong may be affected.”

But apart from the emotional pull the PPP may exercise capitalising on Ms Bhutto’s legacy, the swing factor must also be considered, especially keeping in mind the series of tumultuous events that have rocked the country and the city – May 12, Oct 18, Dec 27 – in the past year, as well as the sky-rocketing prices of essentials and other food-related crises. How much will this affect members of the former ruling coalition in Karachi?

“As far as terrorism is concerned, people know who the perpetrators of terrorism are; who the forces giving these extremists political cover are. So I think to defeat these terrorist elements people will come out in large numbers to vote for us,” said Mr Sabzwari. “About rising prices, it’s true, there is inflation. There are mafias involved in this. We are from the lower middle and middle classes, so we have pointed this out. But one must also consider the global rise in prices of items such as oil,” he added.

“The swing factor should affect the establishment. The people are sick of the MQM. Nobody wants to vote for them, but people will be made to cast their votes with dandas hanging over their heads,” claimed Mr Mehnati conversely, while Mr Mehdi added that “overall, pro-government parties will be affected. Unemployment is rampant. Everyone is affected, including the middle class. I think these facts will be a major factor in the elections.”Ordinary voters, on the other hand, were quite a bit more sceptical about the power of the swing factor.

“Perhaps some naïve people will respond to those candidates who’ll promise that they’ll lower prices, but the shortages and price hikes will not be a major swing factor as people have learnt to live with the current situation. And besides, elections have nothing to do with the affordability of daily use items. They’re just an exercise to keep people busy for a day,” said Ms Mahrukh.

Why, then, does she intend to vote?

“I am voting because my union council nazim works and I want to support him. I’m not thinking on the national level. I’m thinking strictly individually, and individually speaking, the local government system works,” she said.

‘All politicians are exploiters’

Syed Hassan, an office assistant in his early 30s, said he had no interest in voting.

“I will not vote. No one is true to the people. All these politicians are exploiters. They show up only during election season and then disappear and refuse to recognise us. What benefit do I get out of voting? Prices are going through the roof. All the parties do is pass on the goodies to their cronies. On election day I’ll be at home. I have no interest at all in the elections. I have an interest in providing for my family,” he said.

Dr Ahmed summed up the scenario quite succinctly.

“Unfortunately, political and economic issues have not been in the limelight. The campaigns have largely revolved around a few personalities, and this is understandable to an extent. Though the parties have raised issues in their manifestoes, the electioneering activities have largely been marked by negative campaigning. It has been the hallmark of the campaigns.

“Crucial issues such as economics and security have been largely absent from the campaigns. Or else the parties have concentrated on extremely local issues, such as roads and cleanliness, as if this was an election for the local council. But despite all the manipulations we should take part. A boycott will give the pro-establishment forces an open playing field,” he said.