February 15, 2008	Friday	Safar 07, 1429

LAHORE, Feb 14: Candidates have stepped up their election activities in the Punjab, adding colour and lustre to a campaign that was hitherto dull due to an uncertain political environment, widespread sense of insecurity and myriad of other factors.

As canvassing gathers momentum, reports from various parts of the province speak of a higher turnout than earlier predicted. Most reports predict close to a 40-per cent turnout — quite in line with the previous elections.

Reports from various districts of the province say the election campaigns have picked up considerable pace in the last one week.

“Though this month’s polls lack the flavour of past elections, canvassing by candidates and parties is picking up across the city as the polling day draws near,” a journalist from Faisalabad told Dawn by telephone. “Billboards, banners, posters and streamers have already been put up all over the city. The campaign in the city has been given an additional fillip by the Pakistan People’s Party’s rally that was addressed by its co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari on Thursday.”

Information obtained from other districts of the province — like Multan, Rahimyar Khan, Gujranwala and Gujrat — indicates that electioneering is in full swing there. Lahore also seems to be warming up to the polls, but perhaps not as fast as other areas.

The growing fervour all over is despite the fact that no political party — including the Pakistan Muslim League-Q which is being backed up by the establishment — has so far been able to take out any big rally due to the heightened feeling of insecurity.

Electioneering for the upcoming vote in most parts of Punjab — just like the rest of the country — has been marred by a deep sense of fear owing to several incidents of firing and suicide bombings, including the ones at election rallies. You may add to the list of deterrents the reports of bomb hoaxes at schools and other public places, an uncertain political environment, suspicions that the election results would be manipulated in favour of the pro-Musharraf PML-Q, and the delay of polling for six weeks from Jan 8 after the assassination of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto. The recent flour and energy shortages and other everyday economic challenges are also blamed for keeping the voters away from canvassing.

“Having worked 12 hours a day, you are neither left with the energy nor the time to attend an election meeting,” says a clerk in the provincial finance department, who was once a diehard supporter of Nawaz Sharif. “Vote I will, but don’t expect me to spare time for the rallies and meetings.”

Lahore-based political scientist Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais says political uncertainty, late entry of the Sharif brothers into the fray and rejection of their nomination papers, suspicions about the fairness and transparency of the process, widespread belief that the results would be manipulated in favour of the pro-Musharraf forces, Ms Bhutto’s killing and the postponement of the polls took the fervour out of the campaign.

In cities, where canvassing has been more subdued because of security concerns, the candidates are relying more on corner meetings, media and outdoor campaigns of their parties, with the Pakistan Muslim League-Q leading its rivals (PML-N and PPP) in spending, contacting influential groups and individuals holding sway over voters in their localities and areas.

“This time around, I am concentrating more on the individuals and groups who can influence voters in my favour,” former opposition leader in the Punjab Assembly Qasim Zia of PPP told this reporter several days ago.

Politicians contesting the polls from remoter districts of the province or the rural constituencies insist that “the electioneering did not lack the colour or public participation at all” despite the presence of factors said to be affecting canvassing.

“There is a lot of election fervour in the rural areas,” says Jehangir Tareen Khan, a former industries’ minister in the Shaukat Aziz-led government who is contesting for a National Assembly seat from Rahimyar Khan on a PML-Functional ticket. “As you move away from the centre of power, that is, Lahore, you would find this feeling of insecurity dwindling fast. People are coming out in droves, and we’re holding big rallies at least thrice a week.”

Hasnain Bahadur Dareshek, a former finance minister in the cabinet of Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, also makes light of the reports of low-key campaigns.

“It doesn’t hold true for the far-flung and rural (national and provincial) constituencies (in the province),” he says. “Traditional electioneering — which comprises establishing contact with the biradari (clan) and tribal leaders, local bigwigs and elders, etc — is in full swing.

“As we get closer to the elections, we plan to organise big rallies as well to wind up our campaign,” says Dareshek, who is aspiring for a provincial seat from Rajanpur.

He says his group — led by his father Nasrullah Dareshek — is in contest for six national and provincial assembly seats. On half of these six seats, the group was allotted tickets by the Pakistan Muslim League-Q. On the remaining seats, they are competing against the nominees of that party.

All in all, with a visible surge in election-related activities across the province, the predictions of low voter turnout seem to be losing steam. “The turnout on the polling stations largely depends on the ability of the candidates to bring voters out of their home. I think the turnout will remain above 40 per cent in this election,” says Dr Rais.

Another analyst believes that the three-way contests for most constituencies means that more voters will cast their votes than is being predicted by some. “The voter turnout in the major urban areas may remain between 15 and 35 per cent, depending upon the conditions of a given constituency. But it will exceed most predictions in the rural areas. Triangular or four-way contests will ensure that the candidates work harder to mobilise the voters,” he says.