TAIPEI: Tensions between Taiwan and rival China will ease following the pro-Beijing opposition's big win in parliamentary elections, but thorny political disputes will not be resolved overnight, analysts say.

China will be comforted by the Kuomintang's landslide win over the party of President Chen Shui-bian, who has repeatedly angered Beijing with his pro-independence rhetoric and persistent drive for UN membership, they say.

But in the long term, even if KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou wins the presidency in March — a very likely outcome, according to polls published on Monday — observers say putting an end to 60 years of political rivalry will not be easy.

“Lingering cross-strait tensions will be eased to some extent,” Chang Hsien-chao, assistant professor of China studies at National Sun Yat-sen University, said.

The first step is strengthening economic ties between Taipei and Beijing, already robust but with much room for improvement, according to analysts.

“We expect the KMT majority in parliament will introduce effective legislation to increase cross-strait economic exchanges,” said Bentham Hung, an analyst with US-based Mega Wealth International Management Consultant Co.

“People here are hoping the Kuomintang, which has relatively cosy relations with the mainland, will come up with more liberal economic policies on China,” agreed Chu Yen-min, head of research for Taipei-based KGI Securities.

In the first 11 months of 2007, China absorbed more than 40 per cent of the island's total exports, according to official statistics.

Ma has said closer ties with China can help spur economic growth here by opening up lucrative investment opportunities and creating jobs — a key concern that resonated with voters at the weekend.

An estimated one million Taiwanese, or 4.3 per cent of the island's population, are already either working or living in China, according to the Mainland Affairs Council, which handles cross-strait civilian affairs.

Observers say the bigger issue will be how an eventual KMT government run by Ma and backed by parliament would handle what Chang calls “structural problems” arising from the questions of sovereignty and Taiwan's international profile.

“Imagine if Ma is elected and he wants to go on an overseas visit — he would still have to face China's suppression,” Chang said.

Liu Bih-rong, a political science professor at Soochow University, likened the KMT's win to the “defusing of a time bomb,” as it indicated Chen would be unable to push through his controversial referendum on UN membership.

“China was very concerned about the UN referendum, because it feared that should it be approved, Taiwan could announce independence through a similar referendum,” Chang explained.

Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary. The two have been governed separately since the end of a civil war in 1949.

Wu Tung-yeh, a political science professor at National Chengchi University, said he was unsure that Ma, whom he expects to win easily, could quickly effect real change.

Ma has said he would allow mainland tourists to visit, and would work to reinstate direct transportation, commerce and postal services that were cut off six decades ago. But Wu said, “There would be too many reform-related problems from within his own party.”—AFP