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| January 15, 2008 | Tuesday | Muharram 05, 1429 |
Cut in development budget
Clout of the sugar barons
Benazir Bhutto’s legacy
OTHER VOICES - Sindhi Press
CONSIDERING that she was returning to a domestically insecure Pakistan and that she had already received death threats from Baitullah Mehsud and Al Qaeda warning her that her reception was being arranged with suicide bombers, it should not be surprising that Benazir decided to write a will naming her political heir(s).
MR Shahbaz Sharif’s meeting with one of President Musharraf’s aides would not have aroused much speculation if it had not coincided with talk of ‘a national government’. As expected, the PML-N spokesman and Mr Sharif himself denied that the meetings with the president’s aides, the Saudi ambassador and a retired FIA director had any political significance. However, far more important was the statement by Tariq Azeem, a former minister in the last cabinet, that the PML-Q had for some time been weighing the pros and cons of a national government. Declaring that the establishment of a national government would rule out the possibility of the election being manipulated, he said the idea however was not to delay the Feb 18 vote.
Some points deserve special consideration here. The caretakers have been a controversial lot from day one because they are robust PML-Q supporters and, in some cases, its members. To expect them not to take sides would be naive, more so because some of them are contesting the polls. The Election Commission is of course in theory an independent body but it must feel hamstrung by the caretakers’ interference. Even more alarming are reports that in Punjab the former chief minister appears to be enjoying the powers an incumbent would. Talk of a national government would seem to suggest some awareness on the president’s part of the opposition’s lack of confidence in the caretakers. But is a national government feasible?
The opposition parties, especially the PPP and PML-N, seem to have come closer to one another in the aftermath of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, but it would be futile to expect that a new national government would be able to deliver as a team in the few weeks that remain before the general election. Also, it is very important for the government to reassure the nation that a move in such a direction would not be a prelude to another postponement of the polls. This will be an unmitigated disaster and could unleash new forces opposed to the democratic process. A more practical idea could be to sort out the caretakers, remove some of the confirmed PML-Q men and make the caretaker set-up truly neutral by appointing impartial personalities in their place. And it would create even more confidence among the electorate and the contestants if the Election Commission takes steps to establish its independence. One way would be to take action against partisan local bodies’ officials who are misusing state resources and their authority for the campaign of their favourite candidates belonging overwhelmingly to the PML-Q.
FEARING that a ballooning current account deficit on account of high international crude oil prices could widen the budgetary deficit beyond the targeted four per cent for this fiscal, the government has decided to slash its Rs520bn development programme by up to Rs80bn. The proposed reduction in development spending is almost equal to the amount of subsidy the country’s economic managers expect to bear for absorbing the increase in global crude rates. The proposal has come in response to the State Bank’s warning that the “threat of renewed macroeconomic complications would be heightened if prompt action is not taken to correct the drift in fiscal indicators”. Experts had long been stressing that the economy was threatened by an expanding current account deficit, rising inflation, decelerating manufacturing and slowing exports.
Though the cut might alarm many, it is likely to impact positively on the overall national economy unless the social sector faces the axe. The cut would cool the economy and slow down demand and GDP growth. This was long overdue because GDP growth at the current average rate of seven per cent without a solid, diverse manufacturing base was not sustainable. A slowdown is better than a heated economy.
The government had limited options in terms of responding to the fiscal imbalance posed by the external account deficit and inflationary pressures. It could have spiked interest rates — which was inadvisable in view of its harmful effects on the manufacturing sector and potential to tip the economy into recession. The other option was to slash expenditure. The policymakers opted for the latter. But this measure will not produce the desired results unless non-development expenditure is substantially trimmed down as well. While reducing allocations for development, the government has planned for higher fund-raising through loans to bridge the gap between resources and expenditure. That would not be advisable. Government borrowing from the central bank has already gone up to Rs191.3bn — exceeding in the first five months (July-Nov) the annual ceiling for the year as well as that for previous years. This has enhanced monetary expansion significantly and fuelled inflationary pressures. If the government does not slash non-development expenditure and continues to borrow, it will offset the expected positive impact of the reduced development budget. Besides, a decrease in the development budget — especially if the education and health sectors are affected — would send the wrong signal: that the rulers are not prepared to give up personal perks even if these come at a heavy cost to the economy.
POLITICAL, financial and feudal clout, working singularly or in conjunction, allows the sugar barons of Pakistan to fleece farmers and consumers alike almost at will. The dons of the sugar industry, in cahoots with the middlemen in their pay, have engineered more than one artificial shortage in recent years to jack up wholesale and retail prices, thereby widening their profit margins in ways that are nothing short of criminal. With no shortage of cash or influence in all the right places, they have in the past also succeeded in snapping up and hoarding sugar specially imported into the country to alleviate shortages. As we have remarked previously in these columns, sugar was the one issue on which the treasury and opposition benches in the last parliament spoke as one and stood shoulder to shoulder like the boys of the old brigade. The reason is simple: many of our top politicians have a fat finger in this sugar-coated pie. It is the enormous influence wielded by sugar mill owners in the corridors of power that allows them to get away with almost any shenanigan of their device. Growers and end consumers are helpless in all this and will most likely remain so irrespective of who comes to power.
It is now being reported that mill owners in Sindh and the NWFP are paying sugar-cane growers far less than the price fixed by the two provincial governments. The reason, apparently, is a bumper crop that has spoilt the mill owners for choice, allowing them to dictate terms to farmers. Will they now be taken to task for violating government directives? Given their clout, most definitely not. In their defence the mill owners may invoke the capitalist mantra of demand and supply, arguing that surplus stock will naturally fetch lower prices. That would be understandable to a degree if the same rule applied across the board. Will the mill owners pass on their savings to the consumer? Will the retail price of refined sugar fall because of cheaper inputs? We can wait and see but there is little room for optimism. In a developing country with rampant food inflation and a system of ‘backward capitalism’ that encourages profiteering by the powerful, there is every reason why the government should intervene to ensure fair prices for farmers and consumers. The free-market system cannot be used as an excuse to break the back of the people.
However, the manner in which the entire matter of her will was handled raises some questions. If the will was not to be made available for public viewing and was to be confined to her immediate family and the top hierarchy of the PPP, why was it necessary to even disclose that she had made a will.
It is also a well known ‘secret’ that her marriage with Zardari was reportedly on the rocks for some years before Zardari’s lengthy incarceration, with ugly exchanges from both partners and that, though living separated, both had decided against a divorce for the sake of the children and the possible damage that a divorce might cause her political career.
Why then should she want Zardari, tarnished with the reputation for corruption, to be ‘regent’ till Bilawal is old enough to wear the mantle? After all, she did not have the reputation of being forgiving!
Despite these questions regarding the handling of the will, perhaps she was more politically astute than I have been crediting her with, while raising these questions.
Those who are decrying the decision of nominating Bilawal as the political ‘heir’ to Benazir blind themselves to the fact that the PPP has, from its inception, been a ‘Bhutto cult’. Thus Bilawal, while genetically a Zardari was named Bilawal ‘Bhutto’ Zardari to retain the aroma of the Bhutto clan, without which the PPP might lose its essence of ‘Bhuttoism’.
What is more, if a non-hierarchical system, even a democratic one based on merit had been resorted to, it could have resulted in the kind of infighting that could have destroyed the party. By appointing Amin Fahim and Shah Mahmood Qureshi as advisers, she has not only catered for the Sindhi-Punjabi nature of the party, but has also selected the least controversial and cleanest members from the two ethnic groupings.
Whatever may have been the other attributes of Zardari and Benazir, it is generally acknowledged that they were both devoted parents. Who then could have a greater personal interest in preserving his son’s political heritage than his father?
What is more, there are attributes to Zardari that many are unaware of: he is quite intelligent, sharp, politically astute, street smart enough to appeal to the masses, he is fluent in English, Urdu, Sindhi, and Punjabi and, it is likely that he will refrain from any further corruption, if only to ensure that he does not taint his son.
He has also acquired a personal following by braving an eight-year incarceration, during which the government was unable to legally prove any case against him and, despite offers, refused to accept release in return for a ‘deal’ with the government.
Witness his first public statement after assuming the regency: not only did he make it clear that the PPP had no complaint with the army, he went on to emphasise that the guards who died protecting Benazir were Punjabi and that Punjabis and Sindhis were brethren; in an environment when the old Sindhi slogan ‘Pakistan na khapay’ (Pakistan unacceptable) had again risen in the wake of Benazir’s assassination, it was necessary for the PPP to make a strong statement in support of the federation, ensuring that division on ethnic lines was halted; and Zardari rose to the occasion magnificently.
What is more, he also drew the battle lines quite clearly, calling upon the PML-N to join hands with the PPP in contesting the elections to defeat the PML-Q and having excluded the army from the dispute, made it very clear that ‘we are not only looking at the prime minister’s house, but also the president’s’; a most interesting development indeed.
As a matter of fact, from the PPP’s point of view, Benazir’s assassination, however tragic, could, if one took courage in hand to use the phrase, turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Apart from the obvious factor of the ‘sympathy vote’, which must have influenced the party’s executive committee’s decision to insist that elections be held on schedule despite the announced forty-day mourning period for the party; Benazir was tainted by her ‘deal’ with Musharraf and viewed as pro-US.
Zardari is unencumbered by any deal, brokered by the US that she might have agreed to and, if he has decided to include Musharraf as part of the opposition to the PPP, it is possible that he might also manage to cleanse the party’s pro-US image.
It was Zardari who asked Nawaz Sharif not to come for the funeral of Benazir, since tempers were running high at the time and it was he who provided the security for Nawaz’s entourage when they came the day after the burial.
He has also shown every inclination to continue to work together with Nawaz to change the political scene in the country and finally, he has unequivocally stated that he is not seeking a party ticket; and perhaps this very wise decision is not only for health reasons.
There may well be reason for hope that 2008 might usher in a new era in Pakistani politics where these two major national political parties; one of which is a little left of centre and the other, a little right of centre can join hands to ensure that the military never again returns to political power and ensure that we see the back of Musharraf expeditiously.
Are people really responsible for flour crisis?
The high level meeting presided over by our caretaker prime minister failed to resolve the wheat flour crisis, or in castigating the culprits. Instead, it held the people responsible. Federal Minister for Food Prince Essa Khan, while briefing journalists, said that the entire nation was responsible for the flour crisis and that the situation deteriorated after Dec 27, when godowns were looted in Sindh, transport problems cropped up in other provinces and the power crisis brought the grinding to a halt.
Irsa rejected the objections of Sindh and Punjab and released 18000 cusecs of water from Tarbela and Mangla for power generation.
There are reports that a list of hoarders and black marketers was furnished at the same meeting but a minister opposed action against them. The flour crisis is deepening and the government’s attitude is aggravating it further.
There are always some influentials that perpetuate crises; be it sugar, wheat, stock exchange or oil. When NAB tried to launch a probe into the sugar crisis, the bureau itself was made accountable; hence the endeavour was left halfway.
Analyses reveal that crises are patronised…. the government was not ready to make serious efforts to resolve the flour emergency, as instead of exposing the culprits, it protected them and did not take any action against the 50 hoarders that were named in the meeting.
It is strange that despite a bumper crop, the country faces perhaps its worst predicament. The excuse that the crisis developed after Dec 27 is not true, because people have been paying raised flour prices for the last two months. …. an inquiry by a Supreme Court judge should be held to resolve it and to identify both reasons and the culprits. — (Jan 12)
Doubts about timely holding of polls
A volley of doubts surrounds the timely holding of elections. It is argued that the current situation is not conducive to polls. Apparently, the government seems committed to Feb 18 elections, but some circles within the government are of the view that if bomb blasts continue, polls will not be held….
The PPP, the biggest political party contesting elections, has reportedly provided a number of proofs regarding pre-poll rigging. PPP leaders also complained that over half a million party leaders and activists have been booked in cases of rioting that followed the assassination of party chairperson Ms Bhutto. The reports suggest that a majority of the cases were registered on a political basis and interestingly, beggars, teachers, police officials and in some cases, people who died much earlier were also accused. Over two dozen journalists in different districts were also implicated in these cases.
These political rivals were booked for terrorist acts without any scrutiny….
Elections have been held in countries in a worse condition than Pakistan. Former minister for interior affairs Moinuddin Haider rightly pointed out that, if polls can be held during war in Afghanistan and Iraq or after the revolution in Iran, then why not in Pakistan.
The rulers do not want the PPP to get sympathy votes…. Strangely enough, they forget that although elections were not held for many years after Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s hanging, people did not forget his martyrdom….Therefore, no matter how long it takes for the country to go to the ballot, PPP will always have the nation’s sympathy. It is imperative that the government hold elections, that too in a free, fair and transparent manner. — (Jan 12)
— Selected and translated by Sohail Sangi