January 08, 2008	Tuesday	Zilhaj 28, 1428

TBILISI: Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili’s likely re-election will burnish his democratic image in the West, but remaining doubts have dashed quick entry for the ex-Soviet republic into Nato, analysts said on Monday.

Saakashvili was poised for re-election in Saturday’s snap presidential poll, which was called after violent unrest in November, official results showed.

The opposition has condemned the vote as fraud. But international observers said it was largely free and fair, with US congressman Alcee Hastings, who led the largest monitoring group, heralding a “triumphant step” for democracy.

Georgia’s image as one of the most democratic countries in the former Soviet Union had taken a beating in November after police clashed with thousands of protesters and Saakashvili imposed a state of emergency.

The crackdown and emergency rule drew widespread condemnation from Georgia’s allies in the West, who were bitterly disappointed with Saakashvili.

Analysts said Western governments are breathing a sigh of relief after the vote.

“If November’s unrest was a step backward, the December election was a step forward,” political analyst Gia Nodia said.

In a region bordered by a resurgent Russia, Iran and Nato member Turkey, Georgia is of enormous strategic importance. It’s also along the route of major Western-backed pipelines carrying oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe.

Many, in particular the United States, have invested serious political capital in helping to pull Georgia’s from Moscow’s orbit.

The US has widely praised Georgia’s reforms since the peaceful “Rose Revolution” brought Saakashvili to power and has spent millions helping the country rebuild its infrastructure and military.

Still, analysts said November’s events will not be easily forgotten — particularly when it comes to the key issue of Georgia’s bid to join Nato.

Before the unrest, many believed Georgia was on track to being invited to join Nato’s Membership Action Plan (MAP), a key step to full membership, at the military alliance’s April summit in Bucharest.

But after Nato officials criticised the government’s response to the unrest, the chance of an invitation appears to be off the table, said Giorgi Margvelashvili, an analyst with the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs.

Nodia said the long-lasting effects of November’s unrest will be a more “pragmatic and realistic perception of Georgia’s democracy.”

Georgia’s Western allies had closed their eyes to many faults in Saakashvili’s government, including the increasing concentration of power in the presidency and a failure to ensure judicial independence.

Expectations were also too high that the country could transform from a post-Soviet basket-case riddled with corruption to a full democracy in the matter of a few years, Nodia said. “The myth that Georgia is a beacon of democracy has evaporated,” he said.—AFP