January 07, 2008	Monday	Zilhaj 27, 1428

NAIROBI: Unity government, re-count, re-run, run-off? Possible solutions for the crisis born of last week’s bitterly disputed election in Kenya are many, but growing mediation efforts have yet to succeed.

Observers agree, however, that the absence of action to address mounting evidence of fraud in the Dec 27 polls could undermine the east African nation’s stability and democracy.

President Mwai Kibaki has invited his defeated opposition rival to challenge the results in court but Raila Odinga has ruled out legal recourse from a judiciary he charges is entirely loyal to Kibaki.

The freshly sworn-in president has also voiced willingness to form a national unity government but Odinga has rejected the offer, insisting the president is illegitimate and any talks must be conditional on his resignation.

“Kibaki could soon put forward a bogus national unity government with a few vacant seats for the opposition,” said one foreign diplomat involved in mediation efforts.

“But Raila didn’t sit almost 10 years in jail to become vice president, with a government where he doesn’t have a majority ... He is not likely to accept that,” the diplomat said.

Observers said that Raila has understood that his battle will not be won by force, as the police have demonstrated their loyalty to Kibaki. The army is also thought to be squarely behind the incumbent.

“We are not power-hungry .... we want a properly negotiated settlement that will give a lasting solution to this problem,” Odinga said on Sunday, confirming his camp had pulled back from a confrontational game plan.

Since Kibaki was declared the winner by the electoral commission (ECK) on Dec 30, calls have risen for a re-count of all the ballots or, more realistically, a re-tallying of the polling stations’ results.

Such a move was initially requested by Odinga’s camp but has since been dropped, amid suspicion that official records could have since been tampered with at the central Nairobi tallying centre.

“Realistically, the ECK has failed in its duty. Even the re-tallying may not produce credible results. The chairman exposed a high degree of cowardice and complicity,” said Jeremiah Owiti, who heads the Nairobi-based Centre for Independent Research.Even if Odinga overcame legal obstacles to clinch a re-run, question marks would remain over the credibility of a fresh poll. The Kenyan president has sole power to appoint the members of the electoral commission.

“A political solution is much more likely. The regime is suffering a credibility crisis and may need the help of (Odinga’s) Orange Democratic Movement,” Owiti said.

The head of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, Maina Kiai, argued that a solution should come through power-sharing.

“Certain powers of the presidency must be shared. We need to begin reducing the enormous powers of the president,” he said.

Some, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, have suggested that constitutional reform voted down in a 2005 referendum could be resuscitated to reduce the president’s powers and create a strong prime minister position.

“The country has clearly expressed its exasperation with the ruling elite and the final deal could boil down to finding Kibaki a face-saving exit,” the foreign diplomat said.

Whether Kibaki is eventually appointed as Odinga’s vice president or offered another position, observers agreed it was important to reassure his Kikuyu tribe, which has dominated economic and political life for years.

“Right now the Kikuyus control everything and the last defenders of the previous regimes feel trapped ... So the ruling elite needs guarantees against a backlash” from Odinga’s Luo tribe and others, the diplomat said.

Yet the next developments remain unpredictable, with a fragmented international mediation process struggling to get off the ground.

Washington’s top Africa diplomat, Jendayi Frazer, flew in on Friday but US intentions remained unclear towards a Kibaki regime whose economic policies and help in combating terrorism have made it a key regional ally.—AFP