BEIJING, Dec 19: In his final projection before next year’ Beijing Olympics, Italian Olympic official Luciano Barra has altered his forecast to say the United States will stay ahead of China in both gold medals and overall medals won.

In his projection sent out this week, Barra has the US winning 98 medals overall – and 47 gold. He picks China to win 89 – 38 gold. Russia is No. 3 with 88 medals and 32 gold.

The prediction is based on medals won in the most recent world championships, or equivalent events for sports that do not hold world championships.

Barra has revised his forecast since August, when he predicted China would top the gold-medal table with 45, followed by the US (41) and Russia (34). He projected the US would keep the overall lead with 99.

Barra has made such forecasts for previous Olympics, and follows events closely to make the prognostications, but there is still guess work involved.

In his final prediction before the 2004 Athens Games, he underestimated the eventual US medal haul by 30. He overestimated China’s by eight.

At the 2004 Athens Olympics, the US led the gold (36) and overall (102) medal count. China was second in golds (32) and third overall (63). Russia was third in golds (27) and second overall (92).

Both China and the US are downplaying their chances in the Aug 8-24 Olympics. The host country always gets a boost from hosting the games, but this time Chinese officials are saying they will be disadvantaged by the pressure.—AP