December 18, 2007	Tuesday	Zilhaj 7, 1428

JERUSALEM: Israel has warned that a major offensive on Gaza to counter rocket fire is just a matter of time, but it may be trapped by its own rhetoric in launching such a risky operation, analysts said on Monday.

“Neither the government, the army, nor public opinion want a big offensive, which will entail no end of complications but which Israel will begin the day a Palestinian rocket causes casualties,” terrorism expert Ariel Merari said.

“Everything happens as in a play at the theatre, where the first act of a tense drama has been announced. Inevitably there will be a third” act, added Merari, a professor at the University of Tel Aviv.

Israel withdrew soldiers and settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005 after then prime minister Ariel Sharon became convinced that four decades of occupation were too costly and violent to maintain in the national interest.

But since Hamas seized control of the territory in mid-June pressure has mounted on Israeli officials to launch a wide-scale offensive there to halt daily rocket fire.

Merari believes that a new large-scale military campaign would involve the temporarily reoccupying large parts of Gaza, and with no guarantee of halting rocket attacks. It would also be costly in terms of Israeli and Palestinian lives.

“Even if the government is hesitating about launching an operation, the day a rocket kills a couple of Israeli children the pressure will be such that there will be no choice,” said military historian Martin Van Creveld.

In his opinion Israel should take on the risks, including the possibility of large numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties. He described a large operation as the only way to stop the rocket fire.

Intelligence officers believe that Hamas is honing its armed capabilities thanks to Iranian expertise and that tonnes of weapons have been smuggled in through tunnels from Egypt.

Invading Israeli troops would find themselves up against anti-tank rockets, mines and well-trained and well-equipped Hamas fighters, military intelligence has warned.

Army assessments leaked to the press talk about a ground operation ending with the deaths of an estimated 100 Israeli soldiers.

Since mid-May, when deadly Palestinian factional fighting that led to the Hamas takeover first flared, 260 Palestinians and three Israeli soldiers have been killed, senior military officers told the security cabinet last week.—AFP