December 11, 2007	Tuesday	Ziqa'ad 30, 1428

MOSCOW: President Vladimir Putin’s support for Dmitry Medvedev to replace him suggests a compromise among Russia’s competing elites but does not alone resolve the Kremlin succession riddle, analysts said on Monday.

The blessing lends huge momentum to the Kremlin quest of the 42-year-old Gazprom chairman, but that may still be derailed by the emergence before a Dec-23 deadline of surprise candidates with backing in other quarters.

And Putin’s avowal of support for Medvedev, who holds the government post of first deputy prime minister, does little to lay to rest speculation about the current president’s own future political plans, analysts said.

A former law professor from Putin’s native Saint Petersburg, Medvedev is seen as a pro-Western liberal who does not share a KGB security background with many of today’s Russian power elite.

He has taken a leading role in Kremlin ‘national projects’ set up by Putin to attempt to improve agriculture, education, housing and public health without going through the slow-moving bureaucracy of government.

Presenting his candidacy on Monday, the head of the ruling United Russia party Boris Gryzlov told Putin at a Kremlin meeting that Medvedev was chosen because he was “socially-oriented”. Medvedev also chairs state gas giant Gazprom, one of the biggest companies in the world and a locomotive of Russia’s energy-fuelled economic boom, and has a reputation as an influential behind-the-scenes dealmaker.

His main perceived characteristic, however, is his loyalty to Putin and he is seen by many analysts as someone whose power base is entirely based on the patronage of his Kremlin master.

“There’s no-one behind Medvedev except Putin himself. Medvedev can’t form his own faction, he will always need Putin,” said Yury Korgunyuk from the Indem Foundation in Moscow.

Andrei Ryabov from the Russian journal Global Economy and International Affairs said: “The choice was Medvedev because he suits most of the people in power and he’s not from the clan of security hawks.”

“Medvedev has always been given the task of finding a consensus, of rounding the sharp ends,” Ryabov said, contrasting this approach with growing infighting among former security operatives in government.

Alexei Sidorenko, programme coordinator at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, agreed, saying that Medvedev was a clear choice by Putin for a Kremlin line that would be “a little more liberal”. Medvedev is seen as belonging to a liberal Kremlin faction opposed to another headed up by Igor Sechin, deputy head of the presidential administration and the chairman of state oil giant Rosneft.

But analysts said there could be more candidates in the election and not all agreed that Medvedev was now the shoo-in for the presidency.

The candidacy also leaves in place the mystery of Putin’s future amid swirling rumours in Moscow over the Kremlin leader’s plans and the possibility of his returning to power.

“It’s not the final successor. My idea is that Medvedev will be the one to lose and it’s not the last surprise of this presidential campaign.... I’m not quite sure that he will be the president,” Sidorenko said.

Medvedev’s possible candidacy has long been talked about in conjunction with that of Sergei Ivanov, another influential first deputy prime minister who often has higher media ratings than Medvedev.

Ivanov is seen as more closely allied with the security hawk faction in the Kremlin.

Sidorenko suggested that there could be other, non-party candidates and that, if Medvedev is elected, he would be a weak candidate ready to give up his seat if Putin should decide to bid for the presidency in the future.

Vladimir Pribylovsky from the Panorama research centre in Moscow also said that a Medvedev presidency would give Putin the option of returning “after one or two years”. Ryabov said there could be another presidential candidate in the form of Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, another Kremlin loyalist who rose to power in a surprise appointment by Putin earlier this year.

In any case, for Alexei Zabotkin, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank in Moscow, Medvedev’s candidacy was a positive sign for the markets because it signalled continuity with Putin’s policies.“The key thing is that today’s announcement ultimately, totally resolves the uncertainty related to the succession and I think that improves the visibility, that is what is behind the market high,” he said.

“The massive popularity of Putin makes it extremely likely that Medvedev will be the next president.... The general consensus is that strategist very much will follow the continuity of policy.”—AFP