December 10, 2007	Monday	Ziqa'ad 29, 1428

LAHORE, Dec 9: The five-month-old All Parties Democratic Movement virtually disintegrated on Sunday when heads of component parties failed to take a joint decision on the issue of contesting or boycotting the Jan 8 elections.

After a prolonged session under PML (N) leader Nawaz Sharif, it was decided that all parties were “free to take any decision according to their interests”.

While four parties — the PML (N), JUP (Fazle Karim group), Markazi Jamiat Ahle Hadith and Awami National Party — were in favour of taking part in the elections, others called for a boycott. The Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, which is also a component of the MMA, was not represented at the meeting. It announced much earlier its decision to contest the polls.

Now, the pro-boycott parties are meeting at the residence of Tehrik-i-Insaaf chief Imran Khan on Monday morning to work out their line of action.

The decision has also driven a wedge between the PML (N) and the Jamaat-i-Islami and the Tehrik-i-Insaaf, regarded to be close allies of Mr Sharif.

Now the PML (Q), PML (N), Pakistan People’s Party, JUI (F), ANP, Muttahida Qaumi Movement and a number of smaller parties will contest the elections, according legitimacy to the electoral process.

Mr Sharif’s decision is against the expectations of the PML (Q) which, contrary to the public statements of its leaders, was thinking that a boycott by the PML (N) would make the elections a straight contest between with the PPP. Some PML (Q) leaders had started saying that the PML (N) had no future and, therefore, people supporting it should vote for them.

However, if the elections are free and fair the situation may turn out to be different from what the PML (Q) leadership had visualised.

The PPP and the PML (N) had polled millions of votes and given the PML (Q) a tough fight in the 2002 elections, despite the fact that leaders of both the parties were out of the country, the situation could be more favourable for them now when both Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif will be leading their campaigns.

According to observers, President Musharraf cannot afford a free and fair election, notwithstanding his claims to the contrary, because his interest demands a landslide for the PML (Q) – about two thirds majority – so that the new parliament validates the extra-constitutional steps he has taken since Nov 3. With the PPP and the PML (N) in the field, it will be nothing short of a miracle if the PML (Q) gets as many seats as the president needs to indemnify his steps.

And if the electoral performance of the previous ruling coalition falls short of the president’s expectations – and his acts are not validated by parliament -- the consequences are unpredictable.

The president will want a PML (Q) victory also because he will find it difficult to work with the PPP or the PML (N). He is relying heavily on the Chaudhrys of Gujrat – and a clear signal has been given that if the PML (Q) wins elections, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi will be the party’s candidate for the post of the prime minister.

The anti-Musharraf elements taking part in the elections will be in a position to play a strong role in parliament. They may also be able to undo the constitutional patchwork.

If they had stayed away from the process, they would have been left with no option but to resort to agitation and stop other parties from taking part in the elections. But, according to observers, the parties in opposition do not seem to be in a position to launch an agitation strong enough to achieve their goal.