ISLAMABAD, Dec 2: The weekend rains have improved prospects of Pakistan’s crop output and, therefore, a meeting scheduled on Monday for slashing provincial water shares has been postponed.
Official sources told Dawn on Sunday that the recent rains have changed the entire situation and there was optimism that overall shortage during the current Rabi may be below the original estimates of 22 per cent.
As a result, a meeting of the advisory committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) that was scheduled to be held on Monday to cut provincial water shares on the basis of prolonged dry-spell has been postponed indefinitely, a source at Irsa confirmed.
The meeting was convened last month when the Meteorological Department had informed the government that water shortage during the current Rabi season could be more than 22 per cent estimated by Irsa due to unusually lower rainfall.
They said the country’s total storage on Nov 30 this year stood at 3.4 million acre feet compared with 5.4 million acre feet storage on the same date last year when water shortage was estimated at 14 per cent.
On the other hand, total river flows at the beginning of December this year remained at 48,000 cusec compared with 51,000 cusec at the same time last year. This shows that overall situation this year was not as bad as originally projected by the irrigation authorities, the sources said.
Moreover, the provinces were able to get water purely on the basis of their indents.
As a result, Punjab received about 7.22 million acre of feet before Nov 30, which was much higher than its last 10-year average of 6.6 MAF. As such, the province so far experienced a shortage of 18 per cent this year.
Sindh got a total of 5.814 MAF and faced a shortage of 11 per cent this year as of Nov 30. Its 10-year average withdrawal during this period stood at 5MAF, showing again the supplies has been better than the average.
The sources said the timing of the rain had been very fortunate because the most crucial watering requirement to the wheat crop in majority of the barani areas had been met.
Moreover, even though the Meteorological Department is still forecasting lower than normal rains during the season, experts at the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) believed that all historical data suggest that the country would receive normal rainfalls and the water shortages could fall even below 22 per cent.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department had last month informed the irrigation authorities of a possible emergence of a La Nina-like drought conditions in the days ahead during the current season and thereafter, raising fears of a possible poor agriculture performance.
Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, barley and mustard are major crops of the Rabi season that begins on Oct 1 and ends on Apr 30.
Meanwhile, the sources said, the telemetry system that was installed in October 2005 at an estimated cost of Rs320 million continues to be in problems and incurring about Rs30 million per year without any outcome.
