NAWAZ Sharif has returned to his hometown with tumultuous crowds defying Section 144 to accord him a befitting welcome. He has categorically asserted that he did not make a ‘deal’ to facilitate his return. But while expressing reservations about the boycott call of the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) he vowed never to be part of any government under President Musharraf.

The question is whether he will insist on the restoration of the Constitution and the pre-Nov 3 judiciary in APDM councils as a prerequisite for participation in the elections. He has filed his nomination papers but it is unclear whether, in the eyes of the Election Commission, the Presidential pardon has wiped off his conviction and sentence for the Oct 12, ’99 “hijacking”.

Benazir Bhutto, temporarily eclipsed in the news coverage, nevertheless made headlines with her assertion that her negotiations with the government on the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) have made Sharif’s return possible and that she was ready to form an alliance with Sharif and other moderate political forces. She too has spoken, albeit belatedly, about the need to restore the judiciary. The question is whether her recent efforts at distancing herself from the “deal” with Musharraf will restore her badly dented credibility?

The second rank leadership of the PML-Q, hit by the prominent defection of Hina Rabbani and perhaps other less well known figures is already talking of a merger of the two factions of the league, presumably under Sharif’s leadership or at least by working out some seat adjustments in the forthcoming elections. The party is in serious disarray. Will it crumble leaving President Musharraf bereft of domestic political support and perhaps obviate the fear of the polls being rigged by the interim government, in favour of a particular group?

Divisions in the ranks of the MMA are now out in the open. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has refused to join in the boycott call of the APDM, has to contend not only with the opprobrium this has earned him in the MMA but with the fissures within his own party in Balochistan. By all accounts, MMA’s popularity is at low ebb in both the NWFP and Balochistan. Its share in the popular vote will fall precipitously.

The fundamental question for this party, however, is whether the Election Commission will accept the nomination papers of candidates with only “Madarsah Sanads”. What view will the western world and particularly Washington take if a Musharraf appointed Supreme Court rules that the “Sanads” are to be treated as the equivalent of university degrees and that “Sanad” holders are therefore eligible to contest?

Despite mass arrests and legal and physical barriers, civil society continues its campaign for the ouster of the President and the restoration of the judiciary. While the government can heave a sigh of relief that no mass demonstrations have taken place, they cannot ignore the growing global perception that the Pakistani masses, even if they are not out on the streets, share the lawyer community’s “Go Musharraf Go” demand. Has this created a new political dynamic that cannot be ignored by Pakistanis and outside parties?

The President, having disposed of all legal impediments, courtesy the Supreme Court, is now set to shed his “second skin” and to don civvies on Nov 29 before being sworn in for his second or third Presidential term. The new Chief of Army Staff General Kiyani, will then be the undisputed leader of the army. Personal loyalty apart, the institutional influence of the President’s will be only marginally greater than the virtually non existent influence exercised by the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff. What should the new Army chief make of the attacks on GHQ and ISI personnel? What should he do?

The Army’s military operation in Swat is proceeding but it seems that eliminating Mullah Fazlullah and the extremists will take time. This has brought to the fore, aided no doubt by the observation of local and foreign political analysts, the question of why the rebel cleric was not dealt with earlier.

The original leader of the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat Malakand (TNSM), Maulvi Sufi Mohammad had been thoroughly discredited after he callously decided to send thousands of callow untrained youth to their deaths in Afghanistan to aid the Taliban who did not want such assistance. The Maulvi was taken into protective custody to save him from the wrath of enraged parents. This was perhaps justifiable but why then was his son-in-law allowed to continue his message of hate?

In his speech on Jan 12, 2002, Musharraf pledged to make all efforts to control the extremists who “looked at the Taliban as if they were the renaissance of Islam and at those who were against the Taliban as if they were, God forbid, not Muslims”. Did Mullah Fazlullah survive and flourish because he served a purpose just as the manipulation of the vote in favour of the MMA did? Would the same sort of thinking continue in the army under its new leadership? Would this also affect the Tribal Areas?

On the external front, Pakistan stands suspended from the Commonwealth. Malaysian pleas to give Musharraf more time were set aside at the insistence of the United Kingdom and Canada, both close allies of the USA.

Musharraf’s pleas notwithstanding, Saudi Arabia has decided to let the Sharifs return. This was not, as some have speculated, prompted by the “deal” that allowed Bhutto to return or by the damage his exile had done to Saudi Arabia’s image in Pakistan. When Sharif was sent to Saudi Arabia in September, it was known to the principal players that Bhutto’s return had already been arranged. Given the Saudi involvement in Pakistan it is inconceivable that they did not anticipate an adverse reaction. Their decisions both in September and November were taken in collaboration with their closest ally after an evaluation of the changing political dynamic in Pakistan. In public statements, the US continues to support Musharraf, but in the last few days it has been made known that “aid”, that goes to the Pakistan military will be subject to greater control. The understanding in Pakistan was that this payment of roughly $90m a month, made outside the foreign aid budget was not “aid” but payment for services provided at the American bases and facilities in Pakistan and that some of these may have been made with full knowledge that the bills for services had been padded.

Now it is clear that from the American perspective, a large part of these payments were used for the deployment of the Pakistan Army in tribal areas and to equip paramilitary forces. However, the new controls will involve making payments according to “results” achieved.

An increased presence of American Special Forces to train Pakistan’s paramilitary forces is being proposed in a bid to duplicate the success achieved in Iraq’s Sunni triangle. Pressure is also mounting for action against the Taliban in Quetta. Politically and militarily, the United States is hedging its bets.

All these factors make for a cauldron of much deceit, distrust and contradictions, which is exacerbated by the apathy of the masses and complete distrust amongst politicians. One would have to be an incurable optimist to expect a palatable dish to emerge.

IN 1933, Hitler was nominated the chancellor of Germany by President Hindenberg. But before he could take office he was required to get his appointment approved by a new Reichstag (parliament).

Afraid that his Nazi party would not win an absolute majority in the elections, Hitler decided to create a situation which would necessitate the imposition of an emergency. He engineered the burning of the Reichstag. Following this he got the president to issue an emergency decree for the ‘Protection of the people and the state’, which enabled him to suspend fundamental rights and imprison anyone without trial.

The Reichstag elections were held in November 1933 in which the Nazi party got 43.9 per cent of the votes, not an absolute majority. Therefore, in order to free himself of any parliamentary restraint, he sought the passage of the ‘Enabling Act’, which would give him the power to make laws without the approval of the Reichstag.

Since the Act deviated from the constitution, it needed a two-thirds majority to be adopted. Using subterfuge, intimidation and violence, he managed to get the Act passed by 444 votes to 94.

He thus became a legal dictator and promptly brought all political and social institutions, including the press and the courts, under his control. But he made sure that the privileged position of the army was secured.

Seventy-four years later Hitler’s extremist political credo is being replicated in Pakistan. In 1999, people had welcomed the Musharraf coup. Many thought that the saviour had finally arrived. They had great expectations for their country’s and their own future. Yet on Mar 9, their hopes came crashing down as he showed his true colours.

He should have learned from China, Malaysia and South Korea. In a short span of time, these countries have managed to develop and are now knocking at the door of the First World.

He would then have known why the common refrain in China today is that “we have fallen in love with our future”; why Malaysia, with a population of 25 million, is generating revenue from exports in excess of $100bn, against Pakistan’s $16-18bn with 160 million people; and why South Korea has become an industrial giant despite decades of military rule.

Pakistan, on the other hand, sixty years on, is in a state of anarchy, with people here and abroad calling it a failed state, with justification too. The question is why did Musharraf fail when he had everything going for him. Judging by a few of the many decisions made by him, the only conclusion that one can draw is that he lacks sound judgment.

This was first demonstrated in Kargil. He thought that by seizing the heights he would force the Indians to vacate Siachen and to negotiate on Kashmir from a position of weakness — on the contrary, they surprised him by going on to recapture the heights one by one, and also by mobilising their armed forces. He had brought the country to the brink of war.

Musharraf’s failure to take timely action to resolve the crises that were building up in Balochistan, the tribal areas, Lal Masjid and Swat through political, not military means, led to the loss of thousands of lives; by sending the army to crush its own people, he has put the country’s integrity in jeopardy, and turned the army into an object of derision. The fact that the paramilitaries have surrendered in droves, in much the same way as a battalion of the Baloch Regiment had done in Waziristan should open his eyes.

He thought that by intimidating the Chief Justice he would force him to resign; he was surprised. He then filed a reference; he was surprised again.

Knowing that the Karachi rally would lead to clashes and deaths, he still sanctioned it. Since he knows that once out of power, he would be forced to go into exile as the Al Qaeda and Taliban have marked him as their prime target, he imposed de facto martial law, in the process, showed the world that he places his own interests above those of his country.

Therefore, his first imperative is to stay in office for another term. But he may not survive as president for long if the PPP (assuming that they have actually turned against him) or the PML-N is returned to power, either on their own or in coalition. If this happens, they just might decide to invoke Article 6 of the constitution and also implicate his collaborators in PML-Q (who can be termed Quislings).

Apart from this, they might also energise the corruption charges against the PML-Q members, held in abeyance by Musharraf to keep them in line, and frame new charges too. Therefore, his second imperative is to ensure the return of his party to power. And since this can only be done by manipulating the votes, his third imperative is to put into place a compliant army command, election commission, judiciary and caretaker administration.

Yet, his scheme of manoeuvre could run into difficulties if the constitution is restored. Therefore, his fourth imperative is to hold elections under martial law.

But his scheme could fail if the political parties get their act together and spearhead the movement launched by the lawyers, journalists and civil society. If the movement reaches a crescendo before the elections, it could force a rethink on his western and local sponsors about the wisdom of supporting a person who has become a liability.

One of Hitler’s cronies had thundered that “the government will brutally beat down everyone who opposes it. We do not say an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth; no, he who knocks out one of our eyes will get his head cut off, and he who knocks out one of our teeth will get his jaw smashed in.”

From the stage at the carnival in Islamabad, while the dead and the dying were lying in the streets of Karachi, the president had thundered in similar style.

While the dissenters were “brutally beaten down”, they continue to resist. The courage, honour and sacrifice of people like Asma Jehangir, Aitzaz Ahsan, Munir Malik, Ali Ahmad Kurd, Tariq Mahmood, Chief Justice Iftikhar Choudhry and his colleagues, and Imran Khan, have not only turned them into national heroes, but also inspired the tormented people of Pakistan to rise from their slumber. He will be surprised yet again.

Like Field Marshal Paulus and his 6th German Army at Stalingrad, he has been encircled. But unlike Paulus, a safe passage may yet be made available to him.

The writer is a retired brigadier of the SSG of the Pakistan Army.

IN a letter appearing in a Lahore newspaper, a resident of the city informed its readers that he has decided to give up saying congregational prayers in the mosque, even on Fridays, because of the unseemly language used by the ‘imam’ in his sermons. This is the second instance of its kind that has come to my knowledge.

In his time, a senior member of the Urdu journalistic fraternity, late Sardar Fazli who lived near a mosque on Beadon Road, called Chitti Masjid, told me that he intended to shift to some other locality because the imam/khatib of that masjid was obsessed with sexual issues and almost always made them the subject of his sermons.

Fazli had grown-up daughters and said that whatever sexual education they needed would be imparted to them by their mother and they could do without the instruction conveyed to them through the mosque loudspeaker.

Despite the fact that our ulema never had it so good as during General Ziaul Haq’s eleven year rule, they made no effort to change their attitudes and speeches to suit the modern young mind in Pakistan which, frankly speaking, regards them with thinly disguised contempt.

There have been recent notable exceptions like Dr Israr Ahmed and Dr Tahirul Qadri. One may not agree with all that they say but there is no doubt about their knowledge about Islam.

The Jamaat-i-Islami and the two factions of Jamiat-ul-Ulema too have many dedicated maulvis, but their appeal is limited to the political angle they adopt, which sometimes appears more important to them than the religious aspect.

I have been closely associated with the maulvis of Islamabad for some time — at least those who were imams or khatibs of Auqaf mosques in the capital. In 1976 I was their afsar, as they affectionately called me.

A couple of them were learned enough to grace the Badshahi Mosque of Lahore, but the majority were of average intelligence, even mediocre. Their salaries and other benefits were appallingly inadequate, and without exception they were hand to mouth.

Now, after more than 20 years, while their grades of pay have only slightly improved, most of them own either cars or motor cycles/scooters and there is hardly any one among them who has not a side interest based on official patronage by way of a permit or licence or a plot.

I believe this phenomenon of the prosperity of clerics can be seen all over the country as much change has occurred in their living conditions since 1970. Who says the late General Zia did nothing for Islam?

It is my firm opinion that today if all the mosques in Pakistan were to suddenly become bereft of maulvis (I know this is not possible but let me have my dream) they could be run by lay citizens themselves, among whom can be found innumerable religious-minded persons not only learned in theology, but also truly enlightened otherwise.

I am sure that within a matter of weeks the entire national attitude towards life would undergo a healthy change. For one, there would be no sermons of the type that made Sardar Fazli run away from Beadon Road. The persisting sectarian strife may come to a sudden end. And fatwas of kufr would no longer be issued against one another. Also, people may find that many more entertainments can be enjoyed without the threat of fire and brimstone in the hereafter.

Most of all, a community wish (hardly ever voiced) would come true in respect of the mosque loudspeaker which spares neither children nor the sick nor scholars. I do not know for certain but some people allege that after the morning azaan and the Fajr prayer the maulvi himself goes back to bed, and what we hear on the loudspeaker after that is a recorded cassette at full volume.

Some forty years ago (or thereabouts) there were no loudspeakers in mosques. So what did we do? Were we lesser Muslims because of that? I remember that in such a huge place of worship as the Badshahi Masjid, the khatib, Maulana Ghulam Murshid, a great scholar, would only countenance the loudspeaker for azaan and nothing more. Now if you do not live in the vicinity of a mosque, you can actually follow the prayer ritual on the amplifier from half a mile away, apart from other ear-splitting items broadcast in the name of Islam.

In Punjab, whatever else one may say about the intellectual level of maulvis in general, they are reasonably lettered and even function as schoolteachers. But in many other parts of the country it is not unusual to come across the illiterate variety.

In Peshawar once I had to make arrangements for a friend’s nikah. I got hold of the imam of the nearest mosque, a place just outside the city wall. When I asked him to sign his name on the nikahnama he said in Pushto that he would affix his thumb impression! I still have a copy of the document.

The problem is that no government or regime in Pakistan has ever given serious thought to raising a corps of imams and religious teachers in the country. Not even the much trumpeted Islamic regime of General Zia. He only used the maulvis as his constituency and showered favours on them.

The British had a proper ecclesiastical service in India for Protestant Christians, owing allegiance to the Church of England. We should have had something of the same kind in the very beginning instead of wasting sixty years.

Even now it is not too late. The only snag is that the people would look with suspicion at any ulema service initiated by the government as a ruse to control their minds.

Frankly, we may not need maulvis of the existing breed, but we do require imams and khatibs for our mosques and religious teachers for our schools and colleges. And they have to be persons with proper education, reasonably up in English to be able to argue with today’s youth, acquainted with the sciences and devoid of the narrow outlook about what comes from the West.

Most of all they should think of themselves as educators in religious matters and not try to act as middle man between the ordinary Muslim and God.

You never think it will happen to you. Other people, those poor souls one reads about in the papers, get the more frightening viruses which seem to invade Karachi periodically. So while I did take certain cursory precautions, dengue was not a great threat in my life. When I was wracked by a high grade fever last month, I assumed it was of the regular viral kind. It was viral alright, but realisation gradually dawned that the dreaded dengue had struck!

As platelets fell and panic soared, no one could quite figure out what was wrong with me. Since dengue fever is a relatively new illness in our country, most doctors don’t even pick it up till it’s fairly late. About four days and two blood tests into the fever, one doctor told me I had typhoid and started me on antibiotics.

Unconvinced, I sought another opinion and was reassured that it was a viral fever and that the accompanying rash which had now become evident was simply part of that. Goaded by increasingly agitated friends and family, I approached yet another doctor who diagnosed it as “most probably dengue”.

This was finally confirmed by the head of the department of infectious diseases at a leading hospital.

The problem is that by the time the results of the dengue test come in, the patient is probably either well on the road to recovery or precariously close to death.

In fact, in the early stages the virus doesn’t show up in the blood at all and the illness is really assessed by clinical symptoms. Taking all this into consideration, it is not surprising that so many patients in Pakistan have been lost to this insidious killer.

According to the latest report in Dawn, 20 dengue deaths have been recorded in Karachi so far. But the actual numbers are surely higher since a large number of cases go unreported. Doctors at Liaquat National Hospital confirmed that in one day they see about 50 dengue patients, most are sent home while only the ones with a critically low platelet count are admitted.

Then again, there are no drugs which can be administered to combat the virus. Doctors can only tell you to take plenty of rest and keep well hydrated. The virus has to work its way out of the patient’s system and during this time one can only address the symptoms.

In fact, we found ourselves praying that I ‘only’ had typhoid or even malaria which can be relieved by medication. I was extremely fortunate. In my case, while my platelet count did drop alarmingly, I was spared the need for a transfusion. But I had the luxury of completely abdicating all responsibilities to my family and being thoroughly pampered by them. (After all the healthy diet and rest, my skin has never looked better). For those who do not have such support, the outcome is far grimmer.

Dengue fever, which is caused by the bite of the aedis aegypti mosquito, is endemic in tropical countries such as Malaysia and Singapore. This is a very egalitarian mosquito which actually breeds in clean water and so does not focus its energies on poor living conditions or slums. The larvae are most likely to be found breeding in your homes —in planters, vases, refrigerator trays and they have even been known to breed in air conditioning ducts.

Since there is no cure for the virus, the only way to tackle the problem is to prevent the mosquitoes from breeding. Singapore, for example, has launched a massive awareness campaign aimed at prevention and homes and other buildings are regularly inspected for signs of the deadly larvae.

While our government had earlier shown some initiative in educating the public about dengue, its enthusiasm seems to have waned.

Perhaps they do not realise that the problem is only intensifying each year and rears its head as the mosquito breeding season sets in. We need to keep up a concerted campaign to raise awareness through hospitals, schools and the media if we are to protect ourselves from the virus.

Meanwhile, in the absence of any other concrete measures, we locals turn once again to faith. My mother’s driver, who also suffered from dengue, gave her a special dua which has been printed and circulated by some well meaning soul specifically to ward off the dreaded D word. The power of prayer can never be underestimated. But neither can the effort of each individual and the state in combating such a threat.