November 22, 2007	Thursday	Ziqa’ad 11, 1428

COLOMBO: Amidst fears of defection and dissension within his government, President Mahinda Rajapakse on Monday successfully faced his toughest political test since he assumed office by winning a crucial parliamentary vote for the government’s 2008 budget. But the Opposition, the United National Party and other opponents of Rajapakse claim that they can engineer the government’s downfall by mustering a majority vote against the budget when the final vote is taken next month.

On Monday at the preliminary vote, the government managed to have its budget passed in the 225 member parliament by 16 votes, receiving 118 votes in favour and 102 against. However the main opposition, the United National Party (UNP), the pro LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the dissident former Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera state that the government could be defeated in the run up to the final vote to be taken on Dec 14.

According to the Sri Lankan constitution if the Appropriation Bill is defeated, parliament does not stand dissolved immediately but the government is required to present another Appropriation Bill.

If the second budget is also defeated, Parliament should be dissolved by the President.

However, opinion is divided whether the UNP and its supporters could unhinge the UPFA regime.

Some analysts say there is not much chance of toppling the government by defeating the budget in the final vote, unless the minority parties, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) currently supporting the President suddenly jilt him, as the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) did.

“Unlike the JVP, the SLMC and the CWC are part of the government with its members holding ministerial positions and enjoying all the perks that go along with such posts. In reality no one in the government would want the unstable situation that would arise if the budget fails to be passed in parliament. Except for the UNP and the two member SLFP Mahajana wing formed by former Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, no one else really wants a fresh election,” a political commentator said.

The SLMC and the CWC voted for the budget while the UNP, the JVP and the Tamil National alliance (TNA) along with the SLFP (Mahajana wing) voted against it.

“Despite an unpredictable political background it is difficult to envisage a large number of defections from the government between now and the final vote”, one analyst said.

However others say defeating the budget at the final vote may not be altogether impossible as horse trading will continue and amounts of monies offered for the budget vote likely to increase further.

Both the government and the opposition accuse each other of tempting politicians on either side with bribes totaling to as much as Sri Lankan Rs50 million. Amidst such accusations there were two crossovers with one senior parliamentarian of the government Wijayadasa Rajapakse joining the Opposition and Opposition MP Mahinda Ratnathilake pledging his support to the government soon after.

The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) which consists of Buddhist monks and is part of President Rajapakse’s alliance told a press conference that exorbitant amounts had been offered to JHU members by the opposition, the UNP to vote against the budget.In turn the United National Party (UNP) also claims that their party members were promised millions of rupees by the government for their vote.

The JVP which refused to enter into discussions with the government prior to the budget voting, addressing a news conference on Tuesday said their decision not to support the government’s budget was because it does not envision economic growth or any relief to the common man.

“The government’s 2008 budget has only unnecessarily placed tax burdens on ordinary people and increased the foreign debt commitment,” JVP leader Somawansa Amarasinghe told media.

The LTTE bashing JVP drew criticism by Sinhala nationalists for voting against the budget that raised defence expenditure by twenty percent to a record Rs166.4 billion ($1.5 billion).