Implications of rising biofuel use unknown : Food security, poverty
By Amin Ahmed
RAWALPINDI, Nov 16: The recent high petroleum prices were creating new markets for agricultural products that can be used as feedstock for the production of biofuels, said a new report of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations.
The competitiveness of biofuels may be further enhanced if the savings of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from substituting ethanol for gasoline are to be monetised in the form of tradable carbon credits (Certified Emission Reductions of greenhouse gases) through the Clean Development Mechanism under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol, according to the ‘State of Food and Agriculture 2007, released in Rome on Thursday.
If world agriculture were to become a major source of feedstock for the biofuel industry, this would have as yet unknown implications for food security and for the environment.
Bio-energy is a new area that deserves increased attention and further analysis so that the implications of its development for food security and poverty alleviation can be understood, the report said.
It says there are still large uncertainties as to when, how and where climate change will have an impact on agricultural production and food security, but it is generally agreed that agricultural impacts will be more adverse in tropical areas than in temperate areas.
Model-based scenarios predict slight to moderate reductions of potential crop yields, while the adverse impacts of climate change will affect the poor disproportionately, actual impacts will depend at least as much on socio-economic conditions as on the biophysical processes involved.
Policies and investments supporting trade, sustainable agricultural practices and technological progress can help mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security while increasing the capacity of people and societies to adapt, the report suggested.
Historical trends towards increased food consumption per capita globally and particularly in developing countries will, according to FAO scenarios, continue in the near future.
However, they will continue at a slower rate than in the past as more and more countries approach medium high levels.
The average of the developing countries may rise from the current 2,650 kilocalorie (kcal) per person per day to 3,070 kcal by 2,050.
By the middle of the twenty-first century, more than 90 per cent of the world’s population may be living in countries with per capita food consumption of more than 2,700 kcal per day, compared to 51 per cent at present and only 4 per cent three decades ago.
However, not all countries are likely to achieve adequate food consumption levels. This is especially the case for countries that currently have high rates of undernourishment, high population growth rates, poor prospects for rapid economic growth and often meagre agricultural resources. Today, 32 countries are in this category, with an average undernourishment rate of 42 per cent.
The population of these poor countries is expected to increase from the current 580 million to 1.39 billion by 2050, and food consumption could, under fairly optimistic assumptions, increase from the current 2,000 kcal/person/day to 2,450 kcal in the next 30 years. This will not be sufficient for good nutrition in several of these countries, hence the conclusion that reducing undernourishment
