November 10, 2007	Saturday	Shawwal 28, 1428

BANGKOK: Military-run Myanmar could be on the verge of a breakthrough in the battle for democratic reform after moves towards dialogue by the junta and detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, analysts say.

But they cautioned that history was not on the side of the opposition, whose members have been sidelined, harassed and locked up over more than four decades of military rule.

Aung San Suu Kyi on Friday was allowed to meet senior officials from her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, the first such face-to-face talks in more than three years.

She also met for a second time with Aung Kyi, a minister appointed to liaise between the junta and the opposition following international outrage over the deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protests in September.

In a message read out early on Friday by UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari after he left Myanmar following his mission to push for reforms, Aung San Suu Kyi said she was “ready to cooperate” with the generals.

“This is the greatest opportunity ever since 1988 for all parties to make concessions and move forward,” said Win Min, a Myanmar analyst based in Thailand, referring to an earlier pro-democracy uprising that the junta crushed.

He warned, however, that Friday’s talks alone were just a small step, and the junta had a history of backing out of such dialogue.

Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar, said the meetings were a positive step, but only if they led to more substantial results.

“Hopefully the NLD and the SPDC (the junta) can work out some kind of modus vivendi together in relation to the referendum on the constitution and elections,” he told AFP by telephone from Australia.

The junta, officially known as the State Peace and Development Council, must also stop arresting and harassing NLD members, he said.

“I think the past doesn’t leave you to be very optimistic or hopeful that this will work its way through,” he warned. “It could be done but it will take a lot of effort and understanding on all sides.” Similar optimism after 1990 elections, which the NLD won by a landslide, was crushed when the junta refused to recognise the result and instead entrenched its power and kept Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.

Likewise in 2004, talks aimed at involving Aung San Suu Kyi in the generals’ constitution-drafting process – a key part of their “road map” to democracy – was abruptly halted. Without opposition participation, the process has been branded a sham by Western nations.

“They got all the agreement and at the last minute (junta head) General Than Shwe rejected it,” said Win Min.

In one positive sign, Gambari has been invited back to Myanmar for what would be his third visit to the isolated nation since the junta’s crackdown on protests in late September.

Initial indications from his recent visit had not been good. He failed to secure a meeting with Than Shwe, and the information minister ruled out a three-way meeting with the UN, junta and opposition.

But Gambari pursued his quiet diplomacy, meeting the prime minister in the capital Naypyidaw and Aung San Suu Kyi in Yangon, with the United Nations saying he made progress on establishing a dialogue between the two sides.

Myanmar’s harshest critic the United States, however, did not seem satisfied with the result, and said it was “sorely disappointed” that Gambari did not meet Than Shwe.

US national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe also said that Aung San Suu Kyi must meet senior junta officials soon.

Another test for the junta will be the visit by UN human rights expert Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, who is expected to fly into Myanmar – formerly known as Burma – on Sunday.

Analysts however urged the international community to be patient, and said diffusing decades of mistrust between the military regime and the opposition was not going to happen overnight.

“No self-respecting individual in the world today wants to be seen as dancing to the tune of the United States or China, for that matter,” said Zarni, a Myanmar visiting fellow at Britain’s Oxford University.

“So, instead of spitting out demands after demands, Washington should shut up for a few months and let us the Burmese solve our own problems.”—AFP