November 09, 2007	Friday	Shawwal 27, 1428

NEW HAMPSHIRE: New Hampshire is known for turning Republican presidential primaries upside down. It could happen again in the 2008 race. Polls show a tight race for the Republican nomination in the northeastern state. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are in strong contention. Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul — a libertarian long-shot candidate — could complicate an already muddled contest.

The New Hampshire primary — traditionally the first of several to be held in the US during election season — could result in some clarity as early voting states have a larger influence on the race. Poor showings in those states may prompt some candidates to drop out ahead of a political party’s official nomination of a candidate.

New Hampshire has held the first-in-the-nation primary since 1920, and Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has sole discretion over setting the date, is fiercely defending that history this year. Jan 8 has emerged as the most likely day, but Gardner refuses to rule out a mid-December primary.

The state’s recent history is rife with Republican primary voters giving non-establishment candidates a boost, and rocking the race.

In the last contested Republican primary, in 2000, underdog McCain camped out in New Hampshire and soared to a stunning 19 percentage point win over establishment favourite George Bush. In 1996, conservative pundit Patrick Buchanan won the primary over Bob Dole with 27 per cent of the vote. Four years earlier, Buchanan took 37 per cent, but he lost both the New Hampshire primary and the nomination to the incumbent president, George H.W. Bush.

This time, New Hampshire is fertile ground for several candidates, and the multi-person field has fractured the Republican primary electorate. In a state traditionally home to more economic conservatives than social conservatives, everyone is pitching a message of low taxes and restrained spending.

“It’s no different than past cycles,” said Fergus Cullen, the state Republican Party chairman. “There are few states where all the candidates are coming to campaign and are fully resourced. Today, we have five or six candidates that are playing hard here.”

They have not begun to run negative TV or radio ads. But hard-hitting commercials are all but certain given the wide-open race in an early voting state that historically has tolerated negative campaigning more so than others.

Romney, the former governor of neighbouring Massachusetts, has a slight edge in most polls. He could be considered a part-time resident of the state considering his lakeside vacation home and his weekly campaigning here. The multimillionaire venture capitalist has emphasised his management experience in the public, private and non-profit sectors. He has spent about $4 million on TV and radio ads here since going on the air early this year.

Giuliani, the former New York mayor leading in national polls, is playing to win after months of focusing elsewhere. He has made eight recent visits and has flooded mailboxes with literature while spending some $300,000 on radio ads. He also has been increasing his state staff. A fellow Northeasterner, he’s known for putting New York back on solid financial ground and for his resolve following the Sept 11 attacks.

McCain, the Arizona senator, remains a favourite among a segment of hard-core supporters from 2000. But his bid back then was fueled in part by independents, and their support for him this time is not guaranteed. Still, McCain, a long-time deficit hawk who rails against runaway spending, is looking to New Hampshire for a comeback after summer stumbles. He is running TV ads emphasising his military service as surveys show an up tick in support.

Among the others, Thompson, the actor and ex-senator from Tennessee, promised to be in New Hampshire “early and often” but has visited the state only three times in two months. He trails his top rivals in polls and organisation. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, has a network of grass-roots support but lacks money. Paul could be a force; he opposes the Iraq war, and his libertarian bent resonates here. He has been running TV and radio ads and just raised $4.3 million in one day.

Campaigns are anxiously awaiting Gardner’s decision, which is expected soon, and also are trying to gauge the voting behaviour of influential independent voters, dubbed ‘undeclareds’ in New Hampshire.

Surveys show roughly 4 out of 10 of these voters say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary, and about the same number say they are not sure which ballot they will pick up on primary day. Only 19 per cent are planning to vote in the Republican primary, according to a recent poll by Saint Anselm College’s Institute of Politics.

—AP