October 23, 2007	Tuesday	Shawwal 10, 1428

LAHORE, Oct 22: The Punjab is likely to suffer up to 28 per cent water shortage during the coming Kharif season - from Oct 31 to April 30 - exposing the wheat crop to drought threat.

According to Punjab Irrigation Department officials, though Technical Committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Monday “officially calculated” the shortfall at 22 per cent only, but all its members were aware of the fact that the actual shortage would be much higher.

Substantiating their point of view, the sources said that all rivers were experiencing a substantial drop in flow, as compared to last year’s. The Indus River was flowing at 32,100 cusecs on Monday against 35,300 cusecs on the corresponding day last year. Similarly, River Jhelum had a flow of 8,000 cusecs as compared to 10,000 cusecs last year on the same day.

The River Chenab tells the story more clearly as it had a flow of 9,149 cusecs against 22,160 cusecs of last year on Monday.

They said dams’ situation also reflected the shortage. On Monday, Tarbela Dam stood at 1,503 feet, with a live water storage of 4.4 million acre feet (maf), against 1,517 feet of last year - a live storage of 5.14maf. Mangla Lake was at 1,176 feet against 1,119 feet last year and 3.2maf water against 3.9maf of last year.

Dilating upon the causes of heavy drop in rivers’ flow, an Irsa man said water situation in rivers and dams could have been better if the country had heavy rains or floods between Sept 1 and 31, this year. “Floods fill tributaries of rivers, which subsequently increase the base flow. With increased base flow, dams escape depletion. This year, there were neither substantial rains nor floods, and risks are evident,” he explained.

Talking about the effects of the shortfall on the crops, the sources said Punjab would not be able to provide more than two watering to its wheat crop. The province was already going for canal closure from today (Monday), which would last for ten days and save water, they said and added it had also reduced outflow from the Mangla dam to 8,000 cusecs only. All these measures should be able to mitigate effects of water shortage, but the overall shortage would be there to affect the crops, they said.

Around 70 per cent of the irrigation system is perennial, which guzzles most of the water. The department, however, plans to run all the canals at full capacity during the wheat sowing season, which should start in the first week of November. It plans to save water for another watering by the end of December, and hopes and prays for some rain system either in December or March.

With cane crushing season delayed by another 10 days, the department should be able to conserve more water for the rest of the season. That meant that water would be required in the third week of November, giving the department a saving period for a month, they said.