October 22, 2007	Monday	Shawwal 9, 1428

ISLAMABAD, Oct 21: The advisory committee of Indus River System Authority (Irsa) meets here on Monday amid reports of 25 per cent water shortage for the current Rabi season.

Sources said that Irsa and the provinces had estimated that water availability during the Rabi season would be 27-29 million acres feet (MAF) as against the normal availability of about 36 MAF, leaving a shortfall of about 9-11 MAF. The shortage may lead to lower production of major crops this year as compared to the last year.

The sources said the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA), which was expected to meet a day after the advisory committee meeting, would find it difficult to raise the current year’s crop target beyond a certain level. The FCA was likely to set the wheat output target at the last year’s 23.5 million tons, they added.

Irsa sources said the advisory committee meeting would be presided over by newly-appointed Irsa chairman Rafiq Ahmed Dahar, who is also representative of the federal government. Irsa provincial members, provincial irrigation secretaries and representatives of Wapda, Chief Engineering Adviser Organisation and the Met office would attend the meeting.

After finalising water probability figures, the advisory body will also finalise the water distribution plan for the Rabi season. It will ask the provincial governments to provide their irrigation schedules on a 10-day basis.

Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, barley and mustard are major crops of the Rabi season that begins on October 1 and ends on April 30.The sources claimed that Irsa could overcome the water shortage with better management and provincial cooperation and achieve bumper crops. They said the water shortage in the last year of 15 per cent had also been managed successfully which resulted in bumper wheat crop of 23.5 million tons as against the target of 22.8 million tons.

The sources, however, conceded that water availability estimates to be finalised by the Irsa advisory committee would be a key consideration for the FCA when it met on Tuesday to firm up crop estimates.

The government would also have to ensure that sufficient fertilisers and pesticides were available for the Rabi crops, they said.

The Irsa sources said the water availability for Rabi would at best be 31 MAF, but after accounting for system losses the total availability would not be more than 29 MAF. However, in the lower case scenario, the total water availability would be around 27 MAF.

They said that maximum flows in Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab and Indus rivers would be around 25 per cent, 40 per cent, 70 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively, during the current Rabi season.