The tragic abrupt ending of the tumultuous homecoming reception of ex-prime minister and chairperson of Pakistan People’s Party Benazir Bhutto has saddened people. There will probably be a temporary lull in the market after the incident that instilled fear in many a hearts. People , however, have learned to live with the menace of terrorism. They mourn the loss and move on with their lives.

The October 18 incident was not the first of its kind as people have braved many such tragedies in the past few years to pay with their lives for the follies of the rulers. The government has failed to maintain law and order. And the social costs are escalating, impacting on business environment.

What option does the ordinary vulnerable citizen has but to focus on future and move ahead cautiously but with conviction not to give in to fear. Pre Eid spending pattern this year give credence to the impression that risk factors, the political turmoil and the uncertainty have failed to dampen the spirits of the consumers’ who thronged the markets with passion to spend and indulge.

There were some reports that this year business volume was 25-30 per cent less than last year. The survey by Dawn of the markets of bigger cities produced a contradictory assessment.

The business this year, according to our reporters in different cities, was better than expected, keeping the general environment in mind and certainly an improvement over last year.

And lesser rush in certain old markets indicated development of new markets and growth of urban centres.

Now in place of one or two, there are multiple self-sustaining markets in most cities, so instead of the spenders converging at one or two places, they are dispersed, heading to markets of their choice and status.

The surge in market activity before Eid is generated by the entry of middle classes in a big way.

According to a cautious assessment, the middle class spend amount equivalent to their one month salary on one time shopping for the most celebrated Muslim festival.

For most middle class men it is a matter of pride to earn enough to provide for Eid spending over and above the normal family budget.

This budget is not limited to new clothes and shoes for all family members but it also includes Eid related travelling, Eid treats for guests and if possible, some face lifting of the house that could mean whitewash or some other overdue expenditure to prepare to welcome guests on Eid day.

A segment of the population- the neo rich class-- likes to flaunt its wealth to earn social status in society. Then there is a class of people living in abject poverty.

Their economic conditions do not allow them the privilege of shopping for themselves. They had to contend themselves with what their more financially stable acquaintances give them. However, our guesstimate is that about 20 million families enter markets for Eid shopping.

Averaging out all categories of middle classes, we believe that each family spends no less than Rs8,000 on Eid. Simple multiplication of the amount with the number of families give a whooping figure of Rs160 billion.

According to the President Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, this figure has to be multiplied by the factor of nine to arrive at the financial expression of the amount of economic activity generated by the pre-Eid spending by Pakistanis.

He extended his argument further favouring additional spending culture on grounds of generating additional revenues for the government on account of expanded economic activity.

“My assessment is that at least 10 per cent of the targeted revenue for the whole year is generated by the government during the holy month of Ramadan”, he said.

Businessmen in Karachi were better prepared to compete with importers this year round. “People in garment business did very well in Karachi, even in children wear”, Asim a retailer who owns a chain of garment shops told Dawn.

”The economic pressure before Eid contributes to sudden rise in crime rate in the city”, economist Asad Saeed said commenting on Eid economics.

On the trend of diversion of Eid shoppers from old markets he said: “As city expands new markets crop up attracting shoppers of the vicinity. In old times we used to go to Saddar for shopping.

Now there are many stores and shopping centres nearby where all that you want is available, so there is no point going to Saddar”.

Reports from Lahore, Peshawar, Faisalabad, Multan and Rawalpindi confirmed that shoppers were upbeat despite all odds.

Our reporter from Lahore told Dawn that the first 15 days were comparatively quiet and the rush picked up in the last two weeks before Eid. The business was brisk and people cleared their inventories. In Lahore Eid marks start of the shopping season as next two months are most popular to solemnise marriages in Muslim families.

The season ends with the start of Muharrum, the Muslim month of mourning.

Peshawar markets also took the normal Eid rush. There, however, were reports that fewer women were visible in Peshawar shopping areas this year.

The retailers attributed thinner attendance of women to security concerns in the city and also to threats posed to independent women by more rigid Muslims who do not approve of women’s presence in markets. In the city this year local materials enjoyed consumers confidence as compared to Chinese products.

Faisalabad markets were captured to quite an extent by imported Chinese and Taiwanese items. It was a buyers market as local producers had to cut their margins to cover volumes and ward off stiff competition from imported items. People with tighter budgets, however, opted for imported items that were cheaper.

In Multan market sources report presence of more fashion and quality conscious consumers.”The development of new markets in the city has made consumers more choosy here in Multan”, a trader told Dawn.