THE country awaits a new civil-military hybrid political system. The years ahead will denote a mixture of various political parties all coming together in the name of national reconciliation.

Will this formula bear fruit in terms of changing the direction of the country’s social, economic and political realities? Will the new hybrid system change the relationship among the federating units, the different groupings, factions and schools of thought, or will it be more of the same?

The new political structure recognises two essential elements. First, that the military is a reality in Pakistan’s politics and cannot be pushed back to the barracks. So, politicians will have to work with some elements of the military institution and this process will then be called a transition to democracy. Second, the military will understand that the key political actors cannot be pushed out of politics and that any new dispensation will have to include the old faces which the regime claimed it would completely eliminate.

Some analysts call this the best form of politics which will result in a smooth transition to democracy. Their assessment is that the military and General Musharraf, both of whom are deficient in political legitimacy, will build a partnership with real political players such as the PPP and the PML-N. Since there is bad blood between Sharif and Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto’s party will be the natural beneficiary of a deal between the GHQ and the political leadership.

The PPP has a solid vote bank and its popularity has increased as a result of the deal. Given the nature of Pakistan’s politics, particularly in the rural areas, the PPP will manage to gain seats in the elections.

Contrary to what a lot of PML-Q leaders believe that Bhutto’s party will be severely limited, the PPP is bound to show better results due to: (a) politics of seat adjustment with Musharraf, (b) its vote bank, (c) people’s exhaustion with Musharraf’s eight years during which they could not really benefit from resource distribution, and (d) the bad politics of the Chaudhries that resulted in divisions within the ruling party.

The PPP’s popularity, especially in the rural areas of Sindh and Punjab, does not mean that the party will completely dominate the political scene. The country will eventually be divided amongst various political parties to maintain a balance of power which will ensure that the military’s interests are well-guarded. This is what we call transition.

The more important issue is what will emerge from this transitional process. Do these various parties have an agenda for socio-political transformation? Is there anything in their plan which talks about strengthening the federation? Interestingly, it is only the MQM which is indirectly talking about socioeconomic transformation by its reference to feudalism as the main problem behind all the ills in the country’s politics. However, even the MQM does not have a solid plan of action to counter this.

Surely, pragmatists will encourage the leadership of all parties to hold their cards close to their chest before the elections so that the applecart is not disturbed before the parties come into power or claim their share of power. However, what is most essential is for all parties to strategise about power and resource-sharing between the centre and the federating units and devolving democracy to the grassroots level.

The most essential measure is to rethink the relationship between the centre and the federating units of the country. For instance, Balochistan is a festering wound which will remain there unless the problem of distribution of resources is sorted out. Even though Balochistan has been divided between the Baloch and non-Baloch populations and is managed accordingly, the fact of the matter is that distribution and control of resources remains a major issue. The main political parties are as much hostage to the forces of a strong centre as the state’s military and civil bureaucracy. The power of the centre becomes significant due to the control of resources.

The federal consolidated fund is where the power to exploit, utilise and monopolise national resources lies. The centre has always controlled and monopolised the flow of resources which has strengthened the state’s civil and military bureaucracy more than anything else. Devolving power to the provinces will have long-lasting impact on the future of the state and its politics.

A powerful provincial consolidated fund means that the federating units will have greater power to collect and distribute provincial resources and, hence, determine the larger objectives of the state. For instance, if the provinces can manage their own resources, they can have a greater say in the definition of the concept of national security or national interests. However, this involves a fundamental change in the country’s political system which requires a well thought-out plan.

Linked to the issue of distribution of resources is the question of correcting the civil-military relations imbalance. The pragmatists suppose that the method currently employed by the political parties is the best way to ease the military out of politics and governance. Such an assessment goes hand in hand with the understanding that the military is now well-entrenched in controlling the state. This means that civil-military relations will always be fundamentally flawed because the political forces do not have any interest in pushing back the military.

Correcting the balance means bringing greater transparency to the defence sector which would include an examination of the functioning of intelligence agencies. Power will have to be negotiated gradually and systematically but this really depends on whether the civilian partners of the current political deal have the patience and willingness to push back the military.

There are other issues as well, such as rethinking an education policy for the federation which has both the elements of unity and diversity. Every ruling regime has presented its own formula for education in the country which has resulted in stratification on the basis of ethnicity, religious belief and social class. Today, there are several education systems in the country which directly feed social conflict. This problem cannot be solved unless there is a unitary education policy for the entire country that includes the judicious distribution of resources for education throughout the country.

The list of essential policy issues is very long. How these subjects are tackled will ultimately depend on the design of the political transition. The fact is that this transition will strengthen the traditional patronage system and not bring any fundamental change to the structure.

The transition would not necessarily be based on the principle of free and fair elections but on proportioning power and influence on the basis of the perceived popularity of a party, its significance for maintaining the existing balance of power, the capability of its topmost leadership and its relationship with the GHQ and external partners.

The existing strength of the process of transition is also its inherent weakness. There is no evidence at the moment regarding the existence of any political force which can look beyond its own power and change the nature of relationship between state and society.

The writer is an independent analyst and author of the book, ‘Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy.’

Email: ayesha.ibd@gmail.com

IT must be a coincidence, otherwise, why would terrorists choose October 11, the birthday of Gandhian Jaya Prakash Narayan, to strike when people have forgotten him? Even in Patna, where his protégé, Nitish Kumar, is the Bihar chief minister, there was no official function, much less a public holiday.

The terrorists who attacked the dargah at Ajmer were hardly concerned with Narayan’s message of peace and non-violence. They had their own cult of bombs, and dogma of fundamentalism. Their purpose was to instil fear. More than that, it was meant to convey hostility to the composite culture which the dargah represented. A study done a few years ago, showed that the number of non-Muslims visiting the place was more than that of Muslims.

Over the years, the shrine of the Sufi saint Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti has become a meeting point of different religious beliefs. This fusion is gaining recognition for liberalism. It has brought the faithful and the fakir together. How can extremists brook something which upholds the spirit of accommodation and tolerance?

The terrorists’ action is understandable but the dargah’s is not. The drums which have been beaten since the days of Emperor Akbar, who gave these to the dargah, fell silent in protest on Eid. Old clothes were worn with black badges. Terrorists would have wanted no better response. Silence is needed when there is nothing to articulate. The dargah’s drums should have been beaten longer and louder to make the terrorists understand that the dargah’s age-old traditions are not so brittle that a blast can break them.

Still, the question that every Indian must ask himself is why terrorism is rearing its head. The government’s readymade answer is that it is the handiwork of terrorists from across the border. There may be some truth in that, particularly when training camps are in operation in Pakistan and Bangladesh. National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan has accused the ISI.

Yet, the fact remains that if the terrorists were from outside, who were the locals who helped them to select the site, hauled the explosives and provided shelter to them after they had finished their heinous task? It was not so bad a few years ago.

Something has gone wrong to annoy a few segments of society. It has little to do with poverty or lack of education but has much to do with fundamentalism. That something is a sense of unfairness, the feeling that the government does not attend to their grievances.

The oft-repeated charge that Muslims get the wrong end of the stick is not without foundation. They are the most secular community. So much so, they have never voted since Partition for a party claiming to represent Muslims or appealing to them in the name of Islam. They have tended to put their faith in the leadership of non-Muslims.

Yet, when they find justice eluding them, as happened in the wake of the Babri Masjid’s demolition and the Gujarat killings, a few among them can go wild. Those guilty of the Mumbai blasts are punished even after 14 years. But the killers of Muslims three months later are not touched, even though the Justice Sri Krishna report named them: top police officials and Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray.

Again, it may be an individual case but it shows the administration’s partisanship. Rizwanur Rahman married a girl hailing from a rich Hindu family. One month later, he was found dead on rail tracks near Kolkata. The administration is mixed up but no action has been taken despite an uproar by the public and the media. The high court has come to the rescue, ordering a CBI probe, much to the embarrassment of the CPM state government.

The blast in Ludhiana is an isolated case, probably by Sikh militants. Yet it indicates a sense of alienation. The Sikh community nourishes the grouse that none has been hanged for the murder of 3,000 Sikhs at Delhi in 1984. Again, a number of Sikhs missing since Operation Blue Star have not been traced. And some who indulged in the excesses against the community have been treated generously.

I may be wrong to infer that what happened at Ajmer and Ludhiana was an emotional outburst pertaining to pending cases of injustice. The persons involved may well be outsiders. But the point I want to make is that the Hindu community, 80 per cent in the country, has to wake up to the excesses committed against the minorities, including the Christians.

Instances like not getting a house or a job because of following a particular religion are piling up and making some people desperate. The constitution guarantees equal treatment to all Indians, irrespective of caste, creed or colour. The ethos of our national struggle is also secularism.

I can understand the BJP’s stand because it believes in the Hindu polity. But I fail to make out why the Congress, with its secular traditions, has been lukewarm towards the minorities. The Congress is too halting, too compromising when it comes to standing up and being counted among those who are against communalism. Strange, the party should woo or admit former BJP members in its ranks. Can a person changing ideology overnight be trusted?

We can learn a lesson from Pakistan. It was a liberal society. The ruling military junta trained terrorists to fight in Kashmir. In the process, liberalism in Pakistan was adversely affected. There can hardly be any satisfaction that the country is paying for it. The Frankenstein it created is eating it up. The gain is that of terrorism. The tribal areas are particularly targeted. Suicide attacks have taken an ominous turn as terrorists are now fighting against law-enforcement agencies inside their strongholds.

New Delhi’s problem is that it has no properly thought-out, long-term strategy to tackle terrorism. There are ad hoc efforts, with little coordination between the centre and the states. America, a larger country than ours, has not experienced any terrorist act after 9/11.

The reason is that the intelligence agencies work hard, not like India’s where they do not follow up even after prior warning. We are a soft state which requires a change in attitude, and not another special police force or harsher law.

I want to tell those who believe that armed struggle will free this country from the ‘hold’ of capitalists. We should do everything to release the 70 per cent of people caught in poverty even in the wake of a nine to 10 per cent economic growth. But violence is no option just as war is not in today’s world.

There are so many fissiparous tendencies in the country that can come into play. One does not know what will be the outcome of violence. Our democracy is firm but our sense of justice is not.

The writer is a senior columnist based in New Delhi.

IT is term time at the Sangota Public High School, but life is not as usual for its 950 female students. Set in the idyllic surroundings of district Swat in the Malakand Agency, the girls’ school run by a Christian mission is desperately fighting for sustenance against the constant threat of being closed down by a pro-Taliban group, operating with complete impunity, demanding the imposition of Sharia in the area.

The innocuous routine of going to school is no longer a safe assumption as it was in the past. Taking diffident steps beneath the heavy folds of a burqa on their way to Sangota High School, the young girls have been given a foretaste of the religious bigotry that is forcing them to follow the dictates of a monolithic radical group, the Janisaran-i-Islam (devotees of Islam).

Functioning as vigilantes of Islam, the organisation is part of the banned pro-Taliban Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (TSNM — movement for the enforcement of Islamic law), headed by the 28-year-old Maulana Fazlullah, who openly acknowledges Mulla Omar, the Taliban leader, as his ‘amir’.

It is not surprising then that the followers of Mulla Omar, whose Taliban government ruled most of Afghanistan from 1996 until the US-led invasion in 2001, would want to replicate the same style of tribal governance mistakenly describing it as Islam. From the persecution of 1,000 Christians, a part of the 1.5 million population of the Swat Valley, forcing them to proselytise or face death, to the blasting of ancient historical rocks with Buddha’s image in Buthgarh Jehanabad, the process of reincarnating Mulla Omar’s mores follows a similar pattern.

The sight of girls clad in burqas filing past their school is a constant reminder of the latter’s existing on borrowed time before it finally succumbs to Maulana Fazlullah’s religious injunction, conforming to his amir’s belief that bans education for women.

Following the same syllabus as his amir, Maulana Fazalullah obviously skipped that part of Islamic history that accepts religious diversity. Instead, he is zeroing in on a missionary school for girls, accusing its administration of encouraging un-Islamic behaviour.

On Sept 8, a two-page Urdu circular was issued to the school by the Janisaran-i-Islam, accusing the officials of involving students in adultery, forcibly converting students — 99 per cent of the 950 students are Muslims — to Christianity, and warning it to replace the Christian staff with Muslims within seven days, or else face suicide attacks.

The school was shut down the next day to be reopened on Sept 17 after the executive district officer issued a notice to the school authorities urging them to comply with official orders for ‘directing female staff and students to wear burqas’ to deter the ‘continuous threatening letters from the Taliban’. Less than half the total number of students showed up with many preferring to stay home for an indefinite period. Others were too terrified of the TSNM to continue school.

A rough estimate by Khwendo Kor, a non-government organisation working towards setting up schools in the NWFP, confirms that at least 1,000 girls have been pulled out of schools by their families over the past year as a consequence of threatening letters circulated by pro-Taliban organisations.

If the closure of girls’ schools indicates the level of pro-Taliban control in the Malakand Agency, the local government’s incomprehensible display of latitude towards Maulana Fazlullah is far more disturbing. He has established a Sharia court in his native village of Imam Dehri, the headquarters of the TSNM, and has raised enough funds to build a seminary.

Every Friday, the local mosque at Imam Dehri is teeming with people who listen to Maulana Fazlullah’s hair-raising sermons condemning the Pakistan army and appealing for donations so that the under-construction Imam Dehri seminary can be quickly completed.

A huge volunteer force called the Shaheen Commandos, the local version of Mulla Omar’s control in the tehsils of Matta, Kabal, Charbagh and Khawazkhel, outmatches that of the local administration. Each night, after 8 pm, the Shaheen Commandos patrol the four tehsils where checkpoints are installed to curb timber and drug smuggling.

‘Since Maulana Fazlullah’s commandos took over, the law and order situation has improved, smuggling is controlled, something which the government failed to do. The people of Malakand Agency feel deprived of their basic rights and the government has failed to pay attention to development,’ says a local resident of Swat.

All efforts to get Maulana Fazlullah to explain his defiance towards the government failed because the voice on the other side of the telephone said he did not talk to women!

Clearly not communicating with women is not one of the primary problems facing the government in dealing with Maulana Fazlullah. The danger lies in sitting back, waiting for the situation to touch critical levels as witnessed during the Lal Masjid debacle.