September 28, 2007	Friday	Ramazan 15, 1428

BANGKOK: Protests led by Buddhist monks in Myanmar will not be quelled easily despite a deadly crackdown by security forces, analysts said, warning that more blood could be spilled.

The ageing military junta that rules the country from a secret compound in its new capital of Naypyidaw shows no sign of making any concession to the protesters, analysts said as the crackdown entered its second day.

Security forces used batons, tear-gas and warning shots to try to break up the rallies on Wednesday, and issued ultimatums warning “extreme action” to break up fresh protests involving tens of thousands on Thursday.

At least four people were killed, 100 injured, and 300 arrested on Wednesday, but Thailand-based Myanmar analyst Win Min predicted the movement would be undaunted and would continue to grow.

“It will be swelling,” said Win Min, who fled a military crackdown in 1988 when at least 3,000 people were killed as the regime crushed a pro-democracy uprising.

Scenes of security forces attacking monks, leaving at least three of them dead, would only fuel the protests, he said.

Monks are deeply respected as the nation’s foremost moral authority, and shooting them would be seen by the public as a sign that the soldiers were condemned to hell, he said.

“Monks and people marching today are very courageous and sacrificing for the whole country, and they appeared to be sad and very angry for the bloodshed,” he said.

“They also believe that this is the best chance ever since 1988” to bring democracy to the country formerly known as Burma, he said.

Despite the deaths, Myanmar’s security forces have so far mostly relied on anti-riot tactics: baton-charging the protesters, firing tear-gas, and shooting warning shots in the air or over the crowds.

Their actions on Wednesday stood in sharp contrast to the fully-fledged military crackdown in 1988, when 100 people were killed at a single demonstration.

One western diplomat said the most likely scenario could be a flashback to earlier anti-government protests, saying the military had followed the same strategy since the 1960s.

“The scenario is always the same. They let the protesters take to the streets at first, then they intervene with force, once they have identified everyone” in the crowd, he told AFP.

The diplomat said the role of China — one of Myanmar’s few friends and sponsors — was pivotal.

“This time, Beijing is offering pacific words, aimed mostly at the western countries, even as it supplies the junta with arms and ammunition,” he said.

“It all depends on how Myanmar’s people react tomorrow. If they believe that the repression will not get heavier, it’s likely that the protests will continue, or even grow,” he said.

“So far, in past instances, the protests have only dispersed after massive and brutal repression,” he added.

The diplomat said it was still possible that the military, which has ruled since 1962, could fall from power “through a combination of the street movement and internal splits among moderates and hardliners.” “It’s impossible to estimate the extent of these fractures because the regime is so opaque,” he added.

Dave Mathieson, a Myanmar consultant for Human Rights Watch, said the junta had allowed the protests to build over several days so that the regime’s spies could gather information on the identity of the activists and learn about their network.

“This is an institution dedicated to violence against civilians,” he said. “We should never underestimate their level of violence.”—AFP