ISLAMABAD, Sept 26: Pakistan is likely to face more than 15 per cent water shortage during the Rabi season starting on October 1 due to decline in river flows and storage capacity of dams, it is learnt.

As a result of the expected shortage, the dispute over water shortage would re-emerge between Punjab and Sindh because of divergent interpretation of the relevant clauses of the 1991 water accord. Sources said that about 10 per cent shortage is expected due to silting of dams and resultant decline in storage capacity and another five per cent were statistical shortages.

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) would, however, firm up its probability estimates on Sept 30, sources said. They said the water availability in the ongoing Kharif period has remained short of Irsa’s anticipations because of decline in river flows in the last few days despite reduced discharges to the provinces.

Some major crops like wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, barley and mustard are of the Rabi season that begins from October 1 and ends on April 30.

Last year on September 25, storage in dams stood at about 11.4 MAF (million acre feet) for carry forward and the country experienced 14 per cent shortage in Rabi, informed sources told Dawn on Wednesday. This year the storage in two reservoirs is currently at 10.2 MAF or almost 11 per cent lower, which is expected to reduce further by at least 0.3 MAF by close of Kharif season on September 30.

On the basis of historical pattern, the forecast for the last year Rabi inflows were put at 23.2 MAF and, hence, the Irsa estimated total water availability for Rabi at 34.6 MAF. The situation is expected to remain more or less the same this year if estimation is made on the basis of historical basis, although better rains are forecast for this year, sources said.

Usually, water shortages are distributed among the provinces on historical (1977-82) use basis as defined in Section 14(b) of the accord that benefits Punjab and reduces Sindh’s share by about five per cent. Sindh, however, contends that water distribution should be done under equal sharing of shortages.

Under the 1991 accord, a total of 37 MAF water is allocated for Rabi in normal circumstances entailing 18.87 MAF water for Punjab, 14.82 MAF for Sindh, 3.50 MAF for the NWFP and 1.02 MAF to Balochistan.

Informed sources said the Irsa had not yet scheduled meetings of its technical committee and advisory committee meetings although the provinces forwarded their estimates of probabilities. They said the meeting of the Irsa technical meeting was expected sometime next week to finalise water availability estimates on the basis of historical pattern, existing storage in reservoirs, provincial availability estimates, Met Office forecasts and Wapda calculations and to approve filing criteria for the two dams.

A meeting convened by minister for water and power with Irsa for September 27 to set guidelines for the next season had been postponed because of political consideration relating to the filing of nomination papers for the presidential polls and ensure that re-employed members of Irsa from Punjab, NWFP and federal government joined their offices.