After long years of Bonapartist rule
By Shahid Kardar
HAVING sold her soul, one of Pakistan’s most inept political leaders with a reeking reputation has entered into an unholy alliance with a dying dictatorship, ostensibly to save democracy and political stability.
Simply to avoid being penalised for corruption, Benazir has gleefully clambered on board Pervez Musharraf’s sinking ship. We all know that reality is more bizarre than fiction but if it is not just to avoid conviction for graft, how else can one rationalise or explain Benazir tying her political knot with someone whose political obituary has already been written?
I confess to belong to a fast dying breed in the country – those who are liberal, moderate and secular. However, it amazes me that there are starry-eyed liberal fellow travellers who imagine that Benazir’s ability to marshal the votes of the less privileged segments of society and deliver the support of the politically dynamic, but now silent, enlightened and progressive moderates (perhaps this is their wish rather than a belief derived from a careful analysis) to Musharraf will be enough to push back the rising tide of religious extremism within the country.
It is certainly in our national interest to take head on, both politically (by allowing moderate political viewpoints to become active in the tribal and adjoining areas in the NWFP) and through the enforcement of the rule of law, the menace of growing militancy. But the question is: can such a task be accomplished in partnership with Musharraf, widely perceived as an American puppet, faithfully implementing their dictates for the region. In fact, every time they support any action that he takes (for instance, the Jamia Hafsa operation) and egg him on, they strike yet another nail in Musharraf’s political coffin and further weaken the shrinking community of liberals.
Such a strategy is unlikely to succeed since anyone and any partnership tarred with the brush of American approval will not be able to mobilise political opinion and win at the hustings. If the reception that the Chief Justice received during his rallies and processions was a reflection of the public mood, making it clear that anyone now puckering up to Musharraf would be receiving the kiss of death. One cannot realistically expect to enter the corridors of power on George Bush’s shoulders with a bruised public image, despite one’s seemingly populist and anti-establishment credentials.
Such a strategy cannot generate the kind of public support needed to maintain a momentum over the extended timeframe required to tame Bonapartism that has been nourished, nurtured and promoted by the state over decades and has found its raison d’etre in the societal neglect that has deprived the people of basic education, health and skills to enable them to participate meaningfully in national economic growth and thereby have a stake in this system.
Without the education and skills to become effective economic actors, it is these religious zealots – the Taliban and their ilk – that, ironically, represent the demographic dividend that we have reaped and not what Islamabad fantasises and expects as the outcome of the demographic advantage that is supposed to accrue from a higher proportion of young ones in the population.
A civilian regime has become imperative which, apart from addressing the rising wave of fanaticism through social and political investments, will have to be fully backed by the army to ply the instruments of force required to curb the militants and quell the unrest they and other obscurantist forces sponsor and protect. This can only happen if the army is prepared to re-think and alter its terms of partnership with civilian institutions by giving up its claim to be the senior and unquestioned partner in this arrangement.
It must agree to be an equal, if not a subordinate or junior, partner, especially on substantive matters of statecraft, like foreign policy, Kashmir, national security and provincial autonomy and control over natural resources, and beyond sectors like animal husbandry and livestock assigned to civilian governments until now. Is this likely to happen in our lifetime is a million dollar question however.
Does the military see that its time is up, that it does not have the resources and the wherewithal in terms of the capability and experience to rule and manage this country and keep this federation together? To date there is no evidence to suggest that its mindset is changing. The institutional view, even though Musharraf has led them into a dark and narrow cul de sac, continues to be shaped by ambitions for power and influence.
The army does not appear to be willing to distance itself from the Chief who has led them and the country into this mess from where the only way out is through a very slippery slope. One says this because in past constitutional crises, involving the president and the prime minister, there used to be an arbiter. This time around, given the circumstances and the actors involved, there is no intermediary to resolve the crisis, especially since Musharraf has brought matters to such a pass.
The battle of the minds and hearts is being lost and this writer for one cannot see how Benazir – a woman, also perceived as having been brought into the fold (to be eventually given membership of the ruling establishment) as an American choice – will be able to tackle either politically or with force or with a mix of both the mullahs and the militancy threatening the writ of the state.
In fact, these forces of darkness are gaining influence, strength and intensity. Their militancy is not likely to subside (the army will not be able to handle it just as the Americans, with all their technology and firepower, have failed to achieve such an objective in Iraq or Afghanistan) and the political beneficiaries of this war and conflict of ideas will be the mullahs of religious parties (and in which the fanatics will increasingly be seen as heroes gaining public sympathy with each passing day).
The only political leader who, with the support of Imran Khan (whose performance in the forthcoming elections will not match his growing popularity, thanks to the electronic media) who today looks capable of carrying both the democratic forces and the religious lobby with him and also be able to neutralise and tame the mullah is Nawaz Sharif (the recent APC was a testimony to this).
Moreover, his stand of not negotiating with Musharraf, has been well received and looks popular and should hold him in good stead in a fair and free election. The army would be well-advised to invite him back and allow him to participate freely in the next election and then be ready to carve out a new partnership with civilian institutions after the elections.
The writer is a former finance minister, Punjab.

