August 04, 2007	Saturday	Rajab 19, 1428

KARACHI, Aug 3: The Sindh’s contribution in the national economy is estimated to have increased from 28.2 per cent in 1999-2000 to 28.6 per cent in 2004-05 and is expected to be around 29 per cent in the 2006-07, revealed a recent study of the provincial government.

In all these years from 1999-2000 to 2004-05, the study says the contribution of industry in Sindh has increased substantially. The share of Sindh agriculture in the national economy has declined. The share of services sector too has come down. The document is yet to come for detailed scrutiny and analysis before the economists and analysts.

For the first time in 60 years history, the Sindh government has taken a major initiative of constructing a Gross Provincial Product (GPP) for an analysis of provincial economy and to measure contribution of various sectors in the national economy.

“This was done in face of the hurdles created by Islamabad,” a senior official said. He disclosed that the Sindh government took up this task sometimes in 1990s but was abruptly stopped by the federal government. But the World Bank took up a study of Punjab economy and gave an estimate of its share in the national economy.

“This report proved to be a green signal for us and we prepared this report,” he said.

According to this study, the contribution of the Sindh-based industry in national industry is 37 per cent while that of services sector is 27 per cent. Agricultural sector’s contribution has been estimated at 22.1 per cent.

In the industrial sector, the large scale industry contributed 49.1 per cent, small scale 31.5 per cent. In agriculture, major crops contributed 16.9 per cent while minor crops 30 per cent. Livestock’s share is 25 per cent but that of forestry is only 0.2 per cent. Fisheries contributed 19.4 per cent.

In the services sector, the finance and insurance contributed 36.9 per cent, wholesale and retail trade 31.1 per cent, transport, storage and communications 27 per cent, ownership of dwellings 23.2 per cent, public administration and defence 15.2 per cent, social services 23.8 per cent.

Carried out by the Sindh Bureau of Statistics under the guidance of provincial Chief Economist Mr Mohammad Ali Khaskheli, the study noted a structural change within the provincial economy since 1999-2000 till 2004-05. The agriculture sector contributed 21.6 per cent in the GDP of Sindh in 1999-2000, it declined to 17.4 per cent in 2004-05. The share of industry grew from 23.6 per cent in 1999-2000 to 29.4 per cent. The share of services sector decreased to 48 per cent from 50.5 per cent in 1999-2000.

The Sindh study estimates are supported to a large extent by the World Bank report on Punjab economy, which noted a major shift of services sector from Karachi to Lahore. Services sector in Punjab is 52 per cent of the total national services sector. A decline in agriculture in Sindh is being attributed to four years drought and its after effects which reduced the water supply.

“But the increasing share of industry in Sindh warrants a further careful study and analysis,” a member of Site Association of Industry said. He agreed that there had been some revival of industry in the province and the landscape on way to Pakistan Steel, Nooriabad, Kotri and a few other places have changed.

“But how far this industrial expansion has provided employment opportunities is a question for which no answer has been provided,” an active trade unionist said.

“The construction of Gross Provincial Product (GPP) series is a large and complex assignment, as disaggregate data are needed for a vary large number of provincial specific variables,” the authors of the study observes at the very outset and then goes on to explain the methodology used for estimating Sindh’s share in the national value added to various economic sectors.

While the authenticity and credibility of the Sindh’s study is yet to go through scrutiny of the economists and businessmen, the initiative seems to have been appreciated by the scholars and analysts at large.

“The regional account of a province aims at giving quantitative picture of the main economic activities in which the province has been involved during a certain period of time, normally a year,” a banker quoted the study itself to justify the document and periodical updates.

Analysts recall that Islamabad had always looked with suspicion any attempt in Karachi, Quetta and Peshawar to quantify the outflow of their resources. A Regional Planning Organisation set up in Sindh during the decade of seventies was rendered dysfunctional on instructions from Islamabad.

Mr Pasha, a noted economist who was associated with a caretaker government and is now a senior official in a United Nations agency was a teacher at the Karachi University. He told journalists that late General Zia ul Haq instructed in early eighties to stop any exercise that aims at monitoring economic indicators at the provincial level.