July 30, 2007	Monday	Rajab 14, 1428

WASHINGTON, July 29: The United States is supporting a regime in Pakistan that is collapsing before its eyes, says a prominent US scholar.

Stephen P. Cohen, who has authored several books on Pakistan, warns in an article published in The Washington Post on Sunday that the situation in Pakistan can “turn truly nasty” if not checked.

“Washington treats Pakistan as if it were a Cold War ally, dealing only with its top leadership,” he writes. “The great danger is that this time around, Pakistan may not have the internal resources to manage its own rescue.”

If that is the case, warns Mr Cohen, “then in years to come, a nuclear-armed and terrorism-capable Pakistan will become everyone’s biggest foreign policy problem.”

In an article, New York Times quotes PPP leader and lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan as saying: “It is, I feel, the end of the road for the military. It is the end of the road for Pervez Musharraf. Nobody should bet on him, not even the Americans.”

He warns: “The day Pervez Musharraf announces he is standing for re-election, the bars are going to strike, the courts are going to close across Pakistan, and lawyers are going to be on the street.”

Columnist Trudy Rubin writes in Philadelphia Inquirer that this week’s meeting between President Pervez Musharraf and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto could help ease tensions in Pakistan if it produces some results.

“Bhutto is no saint. Her two terms as prime minister were marred by corruption and disappointed many who admired her. But whether she and Musharraf can make a deal may determine whether Pakistan can confront a growing Islamist threat,” says Ms Rubin. “That threat affects America, too.”

She believes that Gen Musharraf might make a deal with Ms Bhutto to maintain power for a while in return for taking off his uniform and restoring civilian rule.

A transitional alliance of the military establishment and secular politicians, she adds, is “vital to cope with Pakistan’s domestic Islamist problem, as well as with Al Qaeda”.

She sees no immediate danger of an “Islamist takeover of the country, but warns that “creeping Islamicisation presents a dangerous threat over the next decade”.

Mr Cohen believes that even if President Musharraf were forced out of the presidency and ceased to be army chief, “his military colleagues would continue to rule from behind the scenes, finding a pliable politician or two to serve as their public face”.

A military ruling from behind the scenes, “might get tougher with India, and they would try to fake it with the Americans regarding Afghanistan: They will not willingly give up their Taliban assets.”

But he also argues that “a second coming of the Musharraf system would work better with a military leader more perceptive than the ebullient but shallow Musharraf”.

But in the end, “the army cannot rule Pakistan by itself. Perhaps it will come to the realisation that what it needs is a strategy for a systematic withdrawal from politics. This would involve heavy investment in the quality and competence of the civilian elite, a rebuilding of liberal Pakistan, and tough measures against defiant, radical Islamists.”