July 19, 2007	Thursday	Rajab 03, 1428

MOSCOW, July 18: The bitter diplomatic row with Britain marks yet another step in steadily worsening relations between Moscow and the West that are reminiscent of the Cold War, analysts said this week.

Britain on Monday announced the expulsion of four Russian diplomats and visa restrictions on Russian government officials after Moscow refused to extradite the chief suspect in the murder of a former Russian agent in London.

Russia has insisted that its constitution prevents extraditions and warned the crisis will have “the most serious consequences” on bilateral relations, but it has so far held off on announcing countermeasures.

“Britain wants to show that if the Russians do not respect the British, they will suffer the consequences,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

Several analysts said they expected Russia to respond by expelling an equal number of British diplomats from Moscow using a common form of retaliation familiar during Cold War times.

“I would find it very hard in terms of the domestic politics of Russia not to respond now, so frankly I would expect some tit-for-tat,” said Rose Gottemoeller, director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre.

Some analysts also said the crisis could affect the operations of British non-governmental groups in Russia, put increased pressure on the British Council and even question future contracts for British companies.

Lukyanov said it was likely “existing business will not suffer, but certainly there will no chance for some new projects or contracts here.” Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, however, said on Tuesday that the measures would be “targeted and appropriate” and would not affect businessmen.

For Jonathan Eyal, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, the crisis marks “a turning point” in Russia's relations with the West.

In recent weeks, Russia has announced it will suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces for Europe (CFE) treaty, a key arms pact, and has dug in its heels against Kosovo's moves towards independence.

Russia has reacted with particular anger at US plans to deploy parts of an anti-missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Moscow says the system is a threat to Russia's security.

The crisis with Britain “is an element in the endless deteriorating of Russia-West relations, which could be called a new Cold War,” said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent Russian analyst.

The positions of Moscow and London in the diplomatic crisis are particularly entrenched because of the current domestic political situation in both countries, analysts explained.

Neither Britain's new Prime Minister Gordon Brown nor outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is due to step down in the middle of next year after eight years in power, want to back down, they said.

But analysts also said the crisis with Britain was unlikely to affect relations more broadly with the European Union, despite British Foreign Secretary David Miliband's appeal for EU and UN support.

Russia's policy on major international issues is also unlikely to change.—AFP