WASHINGTON, July 16: The Lal Masjid operation has increased the vulnerability of Al Qaeda’s top leadership by increasing the conflict between the Pakistani establishment and religious extremists, says a leading US security agency.

Stratfor, which publishes regular analyses on major international issues for its clients, says that the post-Lal Masjid operation atmosphere represents a major security threat to Al Qaeda’s apex leadership.

The report claims that the fear of a strong retaliation by the Pakistani establishment forced al Qaeda’s No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, to publicly urge religious extremists in Pakistan to fight their war in Afghanistan and not inside their own country.

Analysing al-Zawahiri’s latest taped message, released last week, Stratfor notes that the tape “demonstrates an awareness of the threat to al-Qaeda that lies ahead”.

Al-Zawahiri is quoted as saying: “Muslims of Pakistan ... you must now back the mujahideen in Afghanistan with your persons, wealth, opinion and expertise, because the jihad in Afghanistan is the door to salvation for Afghanistan, Pakistan and the rest of the region. Die honourably in the fields of jihad.”

Stratfor explains that the call to focus on Afghanistan makes sense given the strategic and tactical situation Al Qaeda faces.

It claims that Al Qaeda has established its clandestine global headquarters had relocated to the area comprising the districts of Dir, Malakand and Swat.

“Being based in Pakistan meant Al Qaeda could not go too far in staging attacks in country for fear of attracting unwanted attention. It, therefore, tried to ensure that jihadi activity in the country did not become a security liability for the apex leadership,” the report adds.

“Pakistan has thus far provided the leadership sanctuary, but at the cost of significantly diminishing Al Qaeda’s operational capability.”

The report also notes that despite the significant radical Islamist presence within Pakistan, the country poses significant structural impediments to Al Qaeda’s objectives.

“What Al Qaeda really needs is the anarchy Afghanistan offers, presenting conditions conducive not only to the group’s survival but also to a revival of its operational capabilities.”

According to Stratfor, Al Qaeda calculates that, given US problems in Iraq and the disarray among NATO member states, the United States eventually will force the West yet again to abandon Afghanistan. The mujahideen would then be able to use Afghanistan again for their purposes.