BEIJING: Incoming French president Nicolas Sarkozy is unlikely to revamp France’s tried-and-tested policy on Asia but may shift the emphasis from Japan to China, analysts said on Monday a day after his election.
They said France recognised Asia’s growing importance, and that Sarkozy – once installed in the Elysee Palace – would have to pay increasing attention to the region.
An indication of his diplomatic priorities will emerge at the G8 summit of leading world economies in Germany next month, said Hidekazu Kawai, honorary professor of international politics at Tokyo’s Gakushuin University.
“A key to his Asian diplomacy will be China. His Chinese diplomacy will set the tone of his entire Asian diplomacy,” he said.
“Japan may lose the cosy ties with France it long enjoyed under Chirac, who is personally very much interested in Japan,” he added, referring to outgoing French President Jacques Chirac.
However, “a dramatic turnaround in France’s Asian diplomacy is unlikely,” Kawai said.
“As a key member of the European Union, France will continue to have a strong interest in the region. Asia, which is engaged in a large part of the world economy, cannot be ignored any more.”
As president, he will inherit good ties with China from Chirac, who made relations with Beijing a high priority.
Although the French presidential campaign was focused largely on domestic issues, giving analysts few clues about the candidates’ thinking on diplomacy, few doubt China will feature high on the diplomatic agenda.
Sarkozy will face tricky issues such as trade, human rights and a European Union arms embargo in place since the 1989 Tiananmen massacre which France has said it wants lifted.
“It makes sense for any country to pay attention to China,” agreed T.C.A Rangachary, a former Indian ambassador to France.
“France and China have many things in common, both are members of the UN Security Council, and trade is doing well,” he added.
“But that in no way diminishes French relations with India. I see the India-France relationship progressing very well. There is no reason to suggest a change in relations when it serves the interest of both countries.” Analysts do not feel the same about Franco-Japan ties however, pointing to past Sarkozy comments.
In 2004, he reportedly made disparaging remarks about sumo and the ancient Japanese capital of Kyoto, which Chirac often visited, asking how anyone could be fascinated “by these battles between fat guys with slicked-down ponytails?” and saying that “sumo wrestling is really not a sport for intellectuals.” While Japan downplayed Sarkozy’s remarks, many believe he will not pursue relations with Tokyo as actively as Chirac did.
“Japan cannot expect Sarkozy to be as pro-Japan as Chirac and the relationship will be somewhat businesslike,” said Chihaya Kokubo, a researcher at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.
The trilateral relationship between the European Union, Asia and the United States will not change, analysts said, with Paris unlikely to press for a strengthened European role in Asia as a counterbalance to Washington.
“I don’t think Sarkozy has any intentions of doing this,” said Rajendra K. Jain, a professor at the School of International Studies, at Jawaharlal Nehru University in India.
“The French do recognise that the US is a superpower in this uni-polar world.” Nor is Sarkozy likely to change French policy on Southeast Asia, according to Joergen Oerstroem Moeller, a former Danish ambassador to Singapore and a visiting research fellow at the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
“Relations between France and Southeast Asia have been very good and I think it will continue to be so. I don’t think he will change France’s Asia policy,” he said.—AFP
