ANKARA: Even before Nicolas Sarkozy was elected French president, Turkey’s dream of joining the European Union looked increasingly remote – now for many Turks it appears virtually unattainable.
Sarkozy opposes EU membership for Turkey, a large, relatively poor, overwhelmingly Muslim country of 74 million.
“You could say the Sarkozy win is another nail in the coffin (of Turkey’s bid). It adds insult to injury,” said Hasan Unal of Ankara’s Bilkent University, a prominent Turkish Eurosceptic.
“But the EU has been very unpopular for several years now...It keeps coming up with demands on Turkey while making clear it has no intention of letting Turkey join the club.”
Turks have also become more wary of membership after a series of rows over Cyprus, freedom of expression, the role of the military in politics and the World War One mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks.
The rise of Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European politicians opposed to Turkey’s accession has also deepened Turkish scepticism about EU attitudes.
Officially, both Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s centre-right government and the EU remain committed to the goal of eventual membership. Ankara began its entry talks in 2005.
But Erdogan signalled Ankara’s concern on Monday, saying that he hoped Sarkozy’s election would not harm bilateral relations.
Even pro-EU political analysts say the bloc has lost most of its influence over Turkey.
“The EU is not a player in my country any more... This is bad for Turkey but bad for the EU, too,” said Mehmet Ali Birand, a leading liberal commentator.
Government ministers rarely mention the EU in speeches, EU regulations are not translated into Turkish and coordination between ministries on EU-related topics is poor, analysts say.
ARMY SPAT: This month’s crisis, which has pitted the Islamist-rooted government against a powerful secular elite that includes army generals, has most tellingly revealed what analysts call the EU’s “irrelevance” to Turkish developments.
When Turkey’s military objected to the ruling AK Party’s presidential candidate, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, a former Islamist, and threatened to intervene in his election, the EU quickly protested, saying that the army must stay out of politics.
But few in Turkey paid attention to the EU demarche.
“If the EU process were still on track, the military would never have dared issue their ultimatum in the first place,” said Cengiz Aktar, an EU expert at Istanbul’s Bahcesehir University.
“The EU’s criticism of the army intervention only made it to page five of Turkish newspapers. A few years ago, the EU reaction would have been banner headlines ,” said Aktar.
Turkey’s government also told the army not to meddle in politics, showing a defiance that would have been unthinkable a decade ago when the generals last ousted a cabinet they saw as too Islamist. That is perhaps a sign that Turkey has become more open and democratic under EU tutelage, some analysts said.
But the army achieved its aim. Amid mass anti-government rallies and a court ruling invalidating a first round of the presidential election, the government has now had to call early parliamentary elections and Gul has withdrawn his candidacy.
The ruling AK Party, wary of rising nationalism, will not want to make the EU a campaign issue for the July 22 election.
And many analysts doubt a new government, even if the AK Party is re-elected with a big majority, will be able to re-launch the EU reform drive, given the public mood in Turkey and the EU.
“The enthusiasm has gone... But this is a big danger for the EU as well as for Turkey... Turkey could easily move towards a more isolationist policy,” said Can Baydarol, an EU expert.
“It is dangerous because in this age of globalisation no country can solve its problems alone,” he said.
Birand struck a more optimistic note, saying he believed a re-elected AK Party would have to return to the EU track.
“The EU is the only legitimacy this government has. They have to stick with it... But Sarkozy is undoubtedly bad news for Turkey. Everything will be much more difficult now,” he said.—Reuters
