WASHINGTON: On the surface, there’s not much suspense about what happens next in the battle between President Bush and Democratic lawmakers over the war in Iraq. Bush says he will veto the $124-billion war spending bill passed by both houses of Congress last week that requires him to begin withdrawing troops this year; when he does, Democrats say, they will protest and then send him the money without binding conditions.

That noisy script, however, is just a prelude to a debate — under conditions likely to be more difficult for Bush — that could turn into a decisive moment for the course of the war.

To buy time for his build-up of more than 28,000 troops to show results, Bush asked his commander in Iraq, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, to deliver a progress report to the nation in early September.

That helped stave off Republican defections as Congress debated whether to impose a timetable for troop withdrawals. But it also established September as a deadline for clearer military and political progress in Iraq, a tactical concession for a White House that long has refused to accept any benchmarks or timetables for evaluating the war, now four years old.

Democratic and Republican members of Congress already are focusing on September as their next major decision point on the war — planning hearings to debate Petraeus’ findings and, in the Democrats’ case, promising new attempts to force Bush to withdraw troops.

By September, the troop build-up will have been underway for more than six months. Unless there is dramatic improvement in Iraq, public support for the war will probably have eroded further. And by September, skittish Republicans will be four months closer to starting their re-election campaigns.

Petraeus, who calls himself “a qualified optimist” on the war, has warned that his report may not satisfy anyone who wants a purely bullish assessment.

“People always want to get a sense of thumbs up or thumbs down,” he said in an interview last week. “What I’d like to provide is a nuanced paragraph. And what we’ll end up with is something in between.”

But nuances may no longer be enough to keep Republicans from breaking ranks. GOP leaders warn that they will need dramatic evidence of progress — something that has been in short supply in Iraq — to maintain support for the war.

“We need to get some better results from Iraq both politically, economically and militarily, and that needs to happen in the foreseeable future,” said House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), a Bush administration loyalist.

Several moderate Republicans have warned that they are preparing to switch sides unless the troop “surge” shows results.

“If the president’s new strategy does not demonstrate significant results by August, then Congress should consider all options — including a redefinition of our mission and a gradual but significant withdrawal of our troops next year,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who last week voted against the withdrawal bill.

Democrats acknowledge that they are a long way from amassing the two-thirds majority needed in the House and Senate to override a presidential veto on any future war legislation. But they note that if a significant number of Republicans join them in supporting a withdrawal of combat troops, the pressure on Bush will increase.

“The deadline to start (a withdrawal) is going to be driven by the facts on the ground and public opinion, rather than legislation,” said Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a leading member of the House’s Out of Iraq caucus. “By August or September … they will be overwhelmed by the facts.”

Dramatic improvements in Iraq are unlikely in the next few months, said Anthony H. Cordesman, a scholar at the independent Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“All September can do is provide a preliminary assessment of the surge in Baghdad,” he said. “There’s a tendency in Washington to try to get everything done by 2008. But a lot of this (military effort) has to go on to 2010 or 2013 if you’re going to succeed. Only failure is quick.”

Despite growing disaffection for the war among Republican moderates, the majority of the GOP caucus held together last week. Only four lawmakers, two in the Senate and two in the House, crossed the aisle to support the Democratic withdrawal plan. And GOP leaders continued to use the same language as the president to attack the legislation.

But Rep. Jo Ann Emerson — a Republican from a south-eastern Missouri district that voted nearly two to one for Bush in 2004 — voted “present” rather than oppose the plan.

“There is a lot of frustration with the administration on the Republican side,” said one GOP House member who has voted against every Democratic measure on Iraq but asked not to be quoted by name to avoid angering the White House.

In the aftermath of the troop withdrawal votes, Democratic leaders tried to keep the focus on the White House, challenging the president to accede to public opinion and sign their bill. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who has become the administration’s leading antagonist in the war debate, threw down the gauntlet again after his chamber’s vote on Thursday.

“The president has a choice,” Reid said. “Heed the call of the American people, a bipartisan majority of Congress, military experts, to change course — or keep our troops committed to an open-ended civil war. The choice is an easy one.”

If Bush follows through on his veto threat, senior Democratic lawmakers have said they will pass an emergency funding bill that does not include the withdrawal timelines the president has complained so vociferously about.

Such a measure, however, almost certainly would include readiness standards for the strained military. It would also outline benchmarks the Iraqi government must meet to demonstrate progress in reconciling differences between the country’s sectarian communities.

The administration opposes benchmarks that would impose penalties on Iraq if it does not meet them on time.

“To begin now to tie our own hands and to say, ‘We must do this if they don’t do that,’ doesn’t allow us the flexibility and creativity that we need to move this forward,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

But benchmarks have gained support among Republicans who voice increasing frustration over the Iraqi government’s failure to complete long-promised political reforms: a new law apportioning the country’s oil revenue, a relaxation of rules banning members of the overthrown Baath Party from government jobs, and elections to set up provincial governments.

“We’ve got to get (more) aggressive on pushing the political solution,” Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), a supporter of the war, said on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “We’ve got to push them very hard. And our timelines, I think, are very short…. I don’t know if (September) is the time to set, but I don’t think we have infinite time.”

US military leaders in Baghdad say that in the months before the September evaluation, their priorities include prodding Iraqi sects toward political compromise and stopping the car bombings that have killed hundreds this year.

Some analysts think that neither Shia nor Sunni leaders will be willing to cut deals on the reconciliation legislation before the level of violence declines.Petraeus said the troop build-up had succeeded in reducing death-squad executions by about two-thirds.

—Dawn/The Los Angeles Times News Service

DISHONESTY has permeated our society so much that many people who deal in monetary transactions cannot resist indulging in this sin as a daily routine without any second thoughts about its consequences in the life hereafter.

We are not referring to dishonesty in big businesses or property dealings, which is a separate topic altogether, but to dishonesty at the much lower level of everyday monetary transactions between the ordinary cashier and customer at retail shops.

Shop at any of the big grocery stores in Islamabad, be it the government’s utility stores or the well-known privately owned stores in Supermarket and Jinnah Supermarket, and you are likely to find yourself short-changed by the cashiers.

The most common method is that extra items are registered in your receipt which you did not buy at all. This usually happens when your shopping list contains many different items.

One customer, Mrs Nayyab, whose bill totalled Rs3,600 recently at a large grocery store in Supermarket realised in time before she left the shop premises that something was wrong with the bill. After scrutiny of the 15 items on her receipt she found that the cashier had charged her for three packets of cereal costing Rs450 each which she did not buy.

If she had realised this when she got home or long after she had left the shop, she would have no proof at all that she did not buy the three packets of cereal.

Several weeks earlier at the same grocery store which recently expanded its check-out lanes from two to six, Mrs Nayyab, who is a teacher in a private institution, was charged for two packets of milk powder costing Rs540 each, which she did not buy. Luckily again she found this out before she started her car to move out of the car park.

For customers who are buying only a few items, some of the cashiers at these stores have different methods of short-changing them. They will either inflate the stated price of an item or key in the name of another item whose price is much higher than the actual item being bought by the customer.

This happened twice to another customer, Mrs Talat, at a well-known three-storey departmental store in Jinnah Supermarket. When she pointed out the errors, the cashiers merely mumbled “sorry”.

Could such incidents have been mere mistakes due to gross carelessness on the part of the cashiers rather than actual intention to cheat? Definitely not, is the opinion of these two ladies. Although they do not have proof that the errors in their receipts were intentional, they believe the fact that this is happening too often belies the innocence of the cashiers. They are just hoping that you will not be alert, says Mrs Talat.

Another customer, Mrs Khalid, has also had similar experiences of having items which she did not buy being listed on her receipts when shopping at the outlets of Utility Stores in Jinnah Supermarket and G-9 Markaz. Once, she realised that an item — a packet of 10 tissue rolls — was missing only when she reached home.

The lesson of the grocery experiences of these ladies is: scrutinise your receipts before you leave the shop and double- check on your items after they have been put into the boot of your car! A cumbersome procedure but nevertheless necessary if you do not want to become a victim of dishonesty while grocery shopping.

“Dishonesty in everyday cash transactions is not confined to these big superstores,” says Mrs Khalid, a housewife. “One has to be very alert and careful even in some of the small neighbourhood shops, including stationery and tailor shops, which usually do not provide receipts”, she adds.

Some dishonest cashiers at these stores, usually the owners themselves, normally adopt two main methods of short-changing customers, she explains. One: when you give them a big note like a Rs1,000 note, they will give you change for a Rs500 note, and when you point out that you had given them Rs1,000 not Rs500, they will feign absent-mindedness. Two: they will total up the cost higher than what it actually as if you are not watchful.

Mrs Talat, an Islamiat teacher in a government school, is surprised that dishonesty in the area of business is so prevalent in our society, particularly when uprightness and honesty in monetary dealings is a vital part of the fundamental teachings of Islam.

The Quran and the traditions of the Prophet (PBUH), she reminds, are emphatic that a true Muslim is he who is honest and upright in his business and monetary transactions and abstains from making dishonest money. Whoever indulges in these vices is, according to the Quran and the Traditions, not a true believer and will be led into Hell, says Mrs Talat.

According to one theory, says Mrs Nayyab who is a psychology teacher, the pervasiveness of economic immorality in a society has its roots in the educational system. Cheating in examinations in schools, which is a common practice in our society, prepares and moulds the mind for dishonesty in later life, she offers.

The motivation and evaluation of the seemingly small beginnings of cheating in schools ultimately promote unethical and dishonest behaviour in people regarding money, business and work in general, she explains. Such dishonest behaviour is encouraged further by our inefficient system of accountability and punishment, she adds.

This economic immorality is a much more serious problem in our society than the immorality which the burqa-clad, stick- wielding Jamia Hafsa students were trying to eradicate by force, is the opinion of Mrs Nayyab.

It is also much more difficult to eradicate since it involves a concerted effort at improving the imparting of ethical education in the schools, colleges and universities as well as in the religious institutions, she concludes.

Despite tall claims made by Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi regarding `unprecedented’ fund allocations for southern Punjab, the figures about roads in the budget copy for fiscal year 2006-07 tell a different story.

The Punjab government has announced Rs14 billions for the construction of 900-kilometre roads and widening of 1,000-kilometre roads.

During this year, the Punjab government worked on 170 underway projects in upper Punjab, of which 46 projects were for Gujaranwala division. Among other areas, 15 projects were for Lahore, four for Sheikhupura, six for Kasur, five for Okara, two for Hafizabad, 17 for Gujrat, eight for Sialkot, seven for Narowal, two for Mandi Bahauddin, 10 for Rawalpindi, four for Attock, six for Jhelum, 12 for Faisalabad, five for Jhang, 10 for Toba Tek Singh and nine for Sargodha.

But, during the current fiscal year, the government worked on only 39 ongoing projects in southern Punjab and there was not even a single project for Rajanpur and Layyah districts.

Among other districts, one road project is underway in Rahim Yar Khan, one in Bhakkar, two in Mianwali, six in Khanewal, nine in Vehari, five in Multan, three in Muzaffargarh, two in Dera Ghazi Khan, eight in Bahawalpur and two for Bahawalnagar. Surprisingly, the total number of ongoing road projects is shorter than that of Gujaranwala division alone wherein Mr Elahi’s home district Gujrat also falls.

Besides the ongoing projects, 29 new schemes for the construction of roads were launched, of which only five were in south Punjab and the rest for upper Punjab districts. One project each was launched in Rajanpur, Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Vehari and Muzaffargarh.

The chief minister’s kindness to upper Punjab is also evident in small road projects data. Among the road project of 1 to 10 kilometre, 70 projects were only for Gujaranwala division, 62 for Sargodha division, 12 for Lahore district, eight for Sheikhupura district, 10 for Okara district, 34 for Rawalpindi division and 44 for Faisalabad division.

The chief minister granted 12 small road projects to Multan, 12 Muzaffargarh, 15 Dera Ghazi Khan, 11 Rajanpur, 17 Sahiwal, seven Khanewal, 20 Bahawalpur, 18 Lodhran and 17 Rahim Yar Khan.

The Punjab government announced Rs14 billions road projects for the province and only Rs50 millions were announced for south Punjab roads.

The government launched three projects under a Special Infrastructure Programme. These projects include Lahore Ring Road, Lahore-Sialkot Motorway and Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System and all these programme fall in upper Punjab.

The Lahore Ring Road project will cost Rs50 billion, which is two-and-half time more from the total road allocations for the province. Earlier, Rs20 billion were allocated for the Lahore Ring Road project.

Lahore Ring Road is 61.6 kilometre long and 14 interchanges will be constructed there. The government has released Rs23 billion for the project.

Lahore-Sialkot Motorway is another project launched under Special Infrastructure Programme and Rs106 billion will be spent on it. The third project is Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System that will cost Rs178 billion. This 27.5-kilometer subway consisting of nine underground stations and 10 elevated stations will be constructed in Lahore.

Dr Javed Siddiqi, Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians MPA, says the Punjab government is concentrating only on the development of upper Punjab and ignoring the southern part of province.

He said the three divisions of south Punjab produced cotton worth Rs250 billion this year but the Punjab government allocated only Rs30 billion for the development of south Punjab in the last four-and-half years.

He said: “Even if we believe in the chief minister’s claim that the Punjab government launched Rs64 billion projects in south Punjab, it is only Rs9 billion more than the cost of Lahore Ring Road alone.”

He said unemployment could be reduced through establishing industry, adjusting the manpower abroad and starting new projects but the Punjab government did not establish any industry in south Punjab. He said 400,000 people had been adjusted in Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia and all those were from upper Punjab.