March 30, 2007	Friday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 10, 1428

NAIROBI: The bloody attacks that have rocked Mogadishu in recent months have been led by a mishmash of rebel groups all targeting Somali and Ethiopian troops but for very different reasons, observers say.

Somalia is dealing with “a complex insurgency against the TFG (Transitional Federal Government) and the Ethiopian army,” explained Ken Menkhaus, a political science professor at Davidson University in the US state of North Carolina.

The armed resistance is coming from “affiliated groups, including Islamists, clan militias, (and) warlords,” he said, insisting that the groups “have nothing in common except a shared desire to drive Ethiopia out of Mogadishu and prevent the TFG from exercising authority”. Somalia, a nation of about 10 million, has been wracked by factional bloodletting since the 1991 ouster of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre triggered a deadly power struggle that has scuppered over 14 peacemaking attempts.

In the three months since Ethiopian-Somali troops ousted an Islamist movement from south and central Somalia thousands of people have fled the spiralling violence and about 100, mainly civilians, have died.

The Islamists, who initially received the backing from many clans tired of the fighting, managed to chase the warlords out of Mogadishu in mid-2006 and brought a brief calm to the capital.

Their push into the centre of Somalia, along with their threats against neighbouring Ethiopia, prompted an Ethiopian invasion with the backing of the United States, which has accused the Islamic rebels of harbouring Al Qaeda members.

Since the ouster of the Islamists, the warlords have returned to Mogadishu.

The Hawiye clan, which has largely controlled the Somali capital since 1991, joined the

Islamist onslaught against the Ethiopians and the Somali government, which is dominated by rival Darod clan of Siad Barre.

Chiefs of other clans that claim to be under-represented in the government have also joined the rebellion.

Despite the different origins of the insurgents, the rebellion appears to be well organised and centrally structured, according to Francois Grignon, the head of the International Crisis Group (ICG)’s Central African programme.

“The very nature of the (recent) fighting opens to the idea that we are dealing with an insurgency with a single command,” Grignon said.

“Last week there were different attacks on the Ethiopians, especially using remote-controlled explosives, leading one to believe there is coordination. This is no longer about (rockets) falling haphazardly,” he added.

But while the insurgents may be fighting the same enemy, Menkhaus insisted that “they have different interests”. “The Islamists are not interested in seeing the TFG survive.

They want to lead a new political process,” he said, pointing out that the clans in Mogadishu on the other hand “might agree on a government of unity if they are given a very good position.” According to Jeremiah Owiti, an analyst with the Centre of

Independent Research in Nairobi, the clans and the warlords are mainly interested in gaining power in order to make money.

“They have a commercial motive: returning (to power) to get back taxes,” he said.

Last Friday the Hawiye clan said it had reached a ceasefire agreement with the Ethiopian army, proving that it has been involved in the fighting.

And on Monday the Somali government said it was prepared to negotiate with the clan, which then liberated 18 Somali soldiers it had taken prisoner.

Abderizak Adam Hassan, the chief of staff of Somalia’s President Abdellahi Yusuf Ahmed, said the government was “negotiating with everyone”. —AFP