March 28, 2007	Wednesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 8, 1428

ISTANBUL: Less than two months before the seven-year term of President Ahmet Nejdet Sezer ends, Turks still do not know who their next head of state will be. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan might, but he will not disclose it even at this late stage.

The next president will be chosen before May 17 by a parliament dominated by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). Parliamentary elections are set for November.

Erdogan, heading the Islamic-rooted AKP in power since November 2002, may choose himself to go for the largely ceremonial post of president, following the examples of two recent prime ministers.

If he does, Erdogan will have to relinquish control of his party ahead of national elections since presidents are apolitical, representing the nation and the state, rather than the party or the government in power.

A possible Erdogan candidacy is assured of success in the 550-member parliament. His party has 354 seats. A total of 367 votes are needed in the first two ballots, and a simple majority thereafter.

If Erdogan opts for ‘The Pink House’, the residence and office of the president on the hills of capital Ankara, he is bound to be a controversial candidate despite his wide popularity.

Questions are being raised already over his suitability to be president. One, that he is too young (53) and too active for the largely passive role. Another, whether he should ditch the chance to return to power for another five years as head of government. And, known for his combative and outspoken style, could he as president reconcile differing views?

Is he too Islamic for a legally secular Turkey? And, the possible consequences of his wife Emine sporting the Islamic headscarf.

All that is publicly known is that Erdogan has said the candidate of his party -- assuredly the next president -- will be known after nominations open on Apr 16.

Even in the absence of a known candidate, national debate is intense.

Calling Erdogan unreliable, opposition leader Deniz Baykal is on a virulent campaign against a possible Erdogan candidacy. “He must be stopped. Stop him,” he declared.

Baykal did not say who can stop him, but his comment gave rise to speculation that it could have been an oblique appeal to the military, which has staged two coups since the introduction of multi-party politics 60 years ago, and still speaks forcefully and independently on national security issues.

The official position of the military, a staunchly secular institution, is that it has no say in elections.

“His style is better suited for prime minister than president,” Jerome Bastion, a French author and observer of Turkey’s politics for ten years told reporters. He notes that Erdogan televised a street confrontation with a peasant complaining of dwindling farm income impoverishing him and his mother. “Scram, and take your mother along,” Erdogan shot back.

Gulsun Zeytinoglu, a human resources expert and former board member of the country’s Association of Women Entrepreneurs, said that she doubts the commitment of Erdogan and his party to the secular principles outlined in the constitution.

“They can’t change the secular values in the constitution, so they are trying to redefine secularism by injecting religion into it,” she said. “It’s incongruous.”

Former parliament speaker Hüsamettin Cindoruk even raised the possibility that Erdogan may not be eligible for presidency on account of the anti-secular views he is known to have expressed earlier.

Before setting up AKP as a “conservative” party and leading it to victory in the party’s first election, Erdogan was a firebrand member of an Islamist party. He served a four-month jail term in 1997 for Islamist sedition after reciting a poem that likened the mosque to barracks, the minaret to the bayonet and the faithful to the soldiers of Islam.

He was barred from holding elective office and disqualified from the last parliamentary elections, but a change in law later permitted him to win a seat in a by-election that paved the way for him to become prime minister.

The former speaker’s view is that Erdogan was permitted to enter parliament, not necessarily to be elected president.

Under Erdogan’s administration, inflation dropped from 70 per cent to under ten per cent within four years, the stock market doubled its gains, the currency achieved stability, and privatisation, including that of national petroleum and communications companies, raised cash for the treasury. Looking ahead, Erdogan’s party now has the opportunity to have a president of its choice, which would mean a smooth relationship with the new head of state if the party is returned to power in national elections. The AKP government inherited the current secular-oriented president from the previous parliament, and has had tempestuous relations with him.

AKP leaders reason that even in the unlikely case of a defeat in general elections in November, it would have succeeded in having its own choice as head of state. But Erdogan may also elect to remain party head and prime minister for fear of a bruising leadership battle within the party ahead of national polling.

In an internet survey of two million respondents by the main national daily Hurriyet, 73 per cent said they do not believe Erdogan will opt for presidency.

Also generating controversy is the headscarf Erdogan’s wife wears. If he is elected, she will be the first Turkish first lady wearing a headscarf as hostess at the Pink House where she has not set foot at any official function since her husband became prime minister. Pink House invitations to Erdogan and others with wives wearing headscarves are sent only to “Bay” (Mr), rather than “Bay ve Bayan” (Mr and Mrs).

If Erdogan decides again presidency, the party may opt for a minister whose wife does not wear the headscarf. A questionnaire being sent to some 30,000 party branches asks members’ preference among four ministers with wives shunning the headscarf.

Most Turkish women cover their heads, usually with colourful headscarves rather than black veils, but such attire is forbidden in public offices and schools -- a prohibition that Erdogan has said forced him to send his girls to school in the United States where there is no such ban.

“A first lady with the headscarf will symbolise retreat from our journey to the West,” Nermin Bezmen, Turkey’s best selling woman novelist said. “It’s a step backwards.”—Dawn/The IPS News Service