March 23, 2007	Friday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 3, 1428

PARIS: Several new factors have entered the French presidential election race. An unexpected candidate has been added to the list, and yet another has appeared with a better chance than anyone had expected earlier.

In all 12 candidates have been cleared for contesting. A new one on the list is farmer leader and anti-globalisation activist José Bové, who runs on an independent platform.

The first round of elections is due on April 22.

But few expect that more than four have the potential of winning enough votes in the first electoral round to qualify for the decisive vote scheduled on May 6. A candidate can win in the first round with more than 50 per cent of the vote. Otherwise, the poll goes into the second round, a run-off between the top two in the first round.

The four candidates seen as likely to qualify for the second round are former minister for the interior Nicolas Sarkozy from the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), Socialist Party (PS) leader Ségolène Royal, neo-fascist Jean Marie Le Pen of the Front National (FN), and the centrist Francois Bayrou running for the centre-liberal French Democratic Union party (UDF).

According to opinion polls, Le Pen could once more repeat his electoral performances of the last 30 years, and gain more than ten per cent of the vote. In the last presidential election in 2002 Le Pen obtained 16.86 per cent in the first voting round, and took second place, eliminating Socialist nominee Lionel Jospin.

He faced strong rejection in the second round, which gave President Jacques Chirac a record 83 per cent of the vote.

This time opinion polls suggest that an electoral surprise could come from Bayrou, until a couple of months ago a barely noticed candidate.

Bayrou, who served twice as minister for education in the 1990s under right-wing governments, could receive up to 25 per cent of the vote in the first electoral round.

The Socialists were never a majority party in France, but under the leadership of former president Francois Mitterrand in the 1980s they were able to concoct a large coalition with other leftist parties, such as the Communists and the Greens, and dominate local politics for 15 years. Since 2002, a proliferation of radical leftist parties has diminished the Socialist leadership.

Bayrou has been profiting from the recent scandals surrounding the Socialist and UMP candidates, both under heavy media scrutiny over tax declarations.

Bayrou is also benefiting from the general discontent with traditional politics. He is presenting himself as an independent-minded centrist statesman and a modest representative of provincial France, against the arrogant politics of Paris.

Bayrou, a professor of literature, was first elected regional counsellor in 1982 in his native province Pyrénées-Atlantiques in the southwest. In 1986, he won a seat in Parliament, and in 1993 became minister of education in the government of Eduard Balladur.

Two years later, a new government led by Chirac again named him education minister, a post he filled until 1997.

Following that, Bayrou built a new political identity in centrist liberalism. Bayrou ran for presidency in 2002 and obtained 6.8 per cent of the vote. He has been member of the European Parliament since 2004.

Much of Bayrou’s success in the opinion polls is coming at the expense of Royal. Until January, Royal was favourite to win the elections, on the strength of her personal popularity and political style that meant direct consultations with constituents. But gaffes on foreign policy issues and disputes within the party have eroded her popularity.

Royal’s chances are also suffering from the multiplicity of radical left-wing candidates, like José Bové. There are other candidates are from left, green and labour groups. None of them is likely to win more than five per cent of the vote, but they could reduce the Socialist share of the electoral cake.

Opinion polls indicate that Sarkozy, who gave up his post as minister of the interior on March 21, could come first in the first round of elections, with up to 30 per cent of the vote. Polls still make him favourite to win the election, even though Bayrou is catching up on the lead fast.

—Dawn/The IPS News Service